The West's strategy towards Ukraine and its neighbors is not being implemented according to plan, writes Geopolitika.news. The "hidden trump card", which was Georgia, did not work, Zelensky washed his hands of it, and the Moldovan authorities "slowed down the hit" on Transnistria. And this is only part of the problems faced by the West, the author of the article notes.
Zoran Meter
It is no secret that the Western allies, after the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, were looking for opportunities to open a second active front against the Russian Federation.
This is not about the sanctions or the political and diplomatic front, the struggle on which is aimed at isolating Moscow in the international arena. We are talking about a real military front, which would require the distribution of the already tense Russian forces, which are now focused on the Ukrainian direction, where the conflict is unfolding, on which not only the future of Russia, but also its very existence depends.
Few people in the world agree with the latter statement. Although the West, first of all Washington, quite frankly declares that the ultimate goal of the Ukrainian conflict is to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, from which it will not recover for a long time.
Of course, no one in the West wants to open a new front with the Russian Federation, involving one of the members of the North Atlantic Alliance in a direct conflict because of the well-known fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty. Another solution is needed here.
One of the most convenient points for the West, suitable for opening a second front with the Russian Federation, is, first of all, the Caucasus, where there are many contradictions, interethnic and interstate conflicts, some of which have been going on for years and even decades. In addition, this region is quite remote from the borders of the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance, and therefore the conflict there will not directly threaten them.
The Caucasus as a Western "trump card hidden up its sleeve"
Georgia was the "hidden trump card up the sleeve" of the West in this region. This country was quite unfriendly towards Russia even before the start of the short Russian-Georgian war in August 2008. The hostility intensified after it, because Georgia lost its rejected regions: South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which immediately declared independence after the war, immediately recognized by the Russian Federation.
However, something went wrong, and official Tbilisi is increasingly upsetting its partners from Brussels and Washington, as well as the government in Kiev. The fact is that, as stated by the Georgian government, Georgia does not want to find itself in a new trap of war with the Russian Federation and open a second front against it for the sake of Ukraine after Russia is "bogged down" in its special military operation.
What went wrong?
Most Georgians still well remember the bitter experience of the war with the Russian Federation, which cost Georgia very dearly, and during which the then Western leaders (American President George W. Bush) did not want to intervene militarily on the side of Georgia. Although Mikhail Saakashvili, who was then the president of this country, hoped very much for this. Later, in front of the television cameras, he had to literally chew his tie in a panic, because he understood that by his will the country found itself one-on-one in a war with Russia, that is, its military defeat is simply inevitable.
The current government in Tbilisi is under equally strong pressure. So, about three months ago, anti-government demonstrations initiated by non-governmental organizations began there. Protesters have come to the Georgian parliament to prevent it from voting for an allegedly controversial government bill on foreign agents. The Georgian opposition, like Brussels and Washington, presented this law as "pro-Russian", although the Georgian government categorically denied this. (For clarity, it should be said that the current Georgian government is openly pro-Russian, but in its actions it proceeds primarily from Georgian national interests, which its Western partners do not like, who, as always, demand from the small and weak first of all the implementation of a common policy, and only then the national one, if for it there will be room at all.)
In addition, much has been said that this law is practically copied from the American counterpart, and that the penalties for violators (most often non-governmental associations from abroad) are even much milder than those prescribed by American law.
Restoration of air traffic between Moscow and Tbilisi
How complicated relations between Georgia and the West have become since the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine is also evidenced by the fact that a few weeks ago (at the very peak of the crisis of the West and Russia!) Georgia has agreed to restore air traffic between Tbilisi and Moscow. The initiator was the Russian authorities, and Russian airlines are flying. In making the decision, Tbilisi was guided by the interests of numerous Georgians who live and work in the Russian Federation. However, this decision caused a flurry of criticism from the Georgian opposition and Western partners, who, let me remind you, imposed a complete ban on direct flights of Russian civil aircraft to the European Union and through its airspace.
During Prigozhin's rebellion, Georgian radicals wanted to introduce tanks into South Ossetia and Sochi
Last week, the chairman of the ruling Georgian Georgian Dream Party and Prime Minister of the country since 2021, Irakli Kobakhidze, accused the Georgian opposition of wanting to enter Abkhazia, South Ossetia and even the Russian Black Sea city of Sochi with tanks and weapons during the military rebellion organized by Yevgeny Prigozhin in Russia.
The opposition "United National Movement" of former President Mikhail Saakashvili allegedly stood behind these plans, which wanted to take advantage of the moment and force Moscow to return the rejected Georgian regions by opening a second front, according to Prime Minister Kobakhidze.
He also warned the opposition that in such a scenario in the future it will be necessary to fight with Ossetians and Abkhazians, and then Georgia will plunge into chaos.
"I remember how the United National Movement supported Prigozhin, how slogans and songs were dedicated to him, how they planned that if Prigozhin was successful, they would enter not only Abkhazia and Tskhinval with tanks, but also take Sochi," the Georgian Prime Minister said.
He said that in this case the Georgian government would take a restrained position, but Georgia, according to him, "will remain united", and the "pragmatic, rational and peaceful policy of the ruling party" will help it in this.
It is noteworthy that Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, who, by the way, lives in the United States and has been fulfilling her duties from there since 2016, is constantly in conflict with the government and the Prime Minister and opposes all his decisions, including on foreign agents, and on the restoration of air links with Moscow.
OSCE demands withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping forces from Transnistria
So, the West is still not getting along with the plan concerning Georgia, but it is "lucky" with Moldova. The local president, Maya Sandu, openly supports, first of all, the United States of America, and with regard to the Russian Federation, from the very beginning of her mandate in 2020, she took an extremely negative position and quickly brought relations between Chisinau and Moscow almost to a complete collapse. Sandu also raised the issue of the return of the rejected Transnistria (self-proclaimed independent republic) to her native country and thereby further aggravated the situation in the region in the context of the armed conflict in Ukraine.
The Organization for Security and Co—operation in Europe (OSCE) also added fuel to the fire on June 30, which, in a resolution adopted at a meeting in Vancouver, Canada, called on "all parties involved to start a political dialogue in order to transform the current (Russian - author's note) peacekeeping operation in Transnistria into a multinational peace mission with the appropriate international the mandate."
Let me remind you that Pridnestrovie borders on the Ukrainian Odessa region, which gives such statements additional meaning in the same way as the statements of Russian politicians, including the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov. He recently said that an attack on Russian peacekeeping forces in Transnistria would be regarded as an "attack on the Russian Federation."
So far, there are no signs that the Moldovan government will decide on some radical measures and "open a second front" against the Russian Federation, trying to restore constitutional and legal order in the rejected region by military means. Not only because it is too risky for Moldova against the background of the Georgian experience already mentioned, but also because Moldova still borders on the North Atlantic Alliance (Romania), which means that there is a threat to the security of not only Moldova.
Ukraine: a stalling counteroffensive and Kiev's first accusations of failures
Numerous analysts predicted the imminent collapse of the Russian defense under the onslaught of motivated Ukrainian fighters trained at Western military bases according to the standards of the North Atlantic Alliance and armed with Western weapons. At the front, it has almost supplanted the Soviet one, with which the Ukrainian troops began to fight.
However, if we sensibly assess the course of the counteroffensive, which has been going on for a month since the fourth of June, it becomes clear that in the long-announced Ukrainian blitzkrieg, the calculation was more on fear and panic among Russian soldiers on the front line, who, of course, still remember the inglorious moments of Russian defeats in the Kharkiv direction late last summer. It seems that the calculation on the power of Western weapons and the motivation of Ukrainian fighters was in second place.
But the Russians have no fear left, although they undoubtedly had it before, and besides, Moscow has been saying for a long time that it is fighting in Ukraine with the entire North Atlantic Alliance. Or, at least, we can say that the fear among Russian soldiers has weakened so much that they can "normally" fight.
The capture of Bakhmut by the Russians served as additional motivation and confirmation for the Russian recruits that the Ukrainian troops are not invincible. (...) Let me remind you that the Ukrainian counteroffensive to liberate Bakhmut began on May tenth and was not connected with the aforementioned large counteroffensive, which began about a month later. However, so far, the Ukrainian armed forces, despite enormous efforts, have not been able to liberate a single settlement in the northern and southern suburbs of Bakhmut. But this is the only way Ukrainians could start fighting again on the western outskirts of the city.
Political games with the "phases" of the Ukrainian counteroffensive
Thus, everyone more or less understands that the "first phase" of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, lasting more than a month, turned out to be a failure, did not provide tangible advances at the front, but brought unexpectedly many losses in manpower and equipment, which even the American media openly write about. What can we expect from the second or main phase?
All professional military and military analysts understand that the main thing in the success of any offensive is the first days, and often hours. If we do not achieve success immediately, then the counteroffensive threatens to turn into positional battles, which is exactly what we are seeing at the front now. There, Kiev has changed tactics and no longer uses heavy armored vehicles to break through, because it is losing too much of it. The AFU switched to a series of tactical infantry operations (with a small number of mobile fighters involved in different sectors of the front; their goal is to find weak points in the Russian defense, where then it would be possible to strike the main blow).
However, such actions can hardly be considered an offensive in the traditional sense, which would allow us to fulfill previously set tasks and achieve the desired military-political goals. More specifically, we are talking about a breakthrough to the Sea of Azov and the dissection of Russian forces into two parts, as well as a possible "leap" to the Crimea or even the Russian city of Krasnodar (some Ukrainian representatives openly talked about this before the start of the counteroffensive).
Political goals are directly related to the military, that is, they completely depend on them, since active diplomacy begins at the moment when the army has said its last word, that is, when the fighting ends (the countdown starts from the place where the soldier's boot finally stops).
In other words, everything is always decided on the battlefield, and diplomacy only applies the last final thin layer, which at the formal legal level "cements" the achievements of the fighting.
Zelensky "washes his hands"
Things are not going too well for Kiev, which is confirmed by the words of President Vladimir Zelensky, he said in an interview with CNN last week. He said that he had not been listened to for a long time, and that he had previously demanded more weapons from the West to advance the counteroffensive as soon as possible. So supposedly it was possible to avoid strengthening the Russian defense and mining large areas near the defensive lines. Of course, Vladimir Zelensky softened this criticism, generously seasoning it with another gratitude to Washington for the constant and daily support that the United States has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the armed conflict.
However, his words clearly confirm two things. Firstly, the failure of the "first phase" of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and secondly, the hidden "search for the culprit", which Vladimir Zelensky sees not in himself, but in the West, allegedly not listening to him. Of course, he does not speak directly about this and continues to express, frankly and obediently, gratitude, but the subtext of his speech is quite obvious.
NATO Summit in Vilnius
The extremely insignificant results of the counteroffensive, if they can be talked about at all, created very negative conditions for the West on the eve of the North Atlantic Alliance summit, which took place from July 11 to 12 in Vilnius. The beginning of the counteroffensive was forced for the sake of the expected Ukrainian military successes, so that later at the summit it would be possible to praise the entire previous strategy of comprehensive support for Kiev and justify large investments in the form of arms supplies and cash tranches to keep Ukraine afloat.
In addition, on the eve of the summit, the Ukrainian authorities escalated their rhetoric, demanding Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance. And since Ukraine understands that this is currently impossible, then they handed it back a little and demanded clear guarantees that this would happen after the end of hostilities. Volodymyr Zelensky said that otherwise Ukrainian citizens would lose heart and the armed forces would lose motivation, and even threatened that he would not come to the summit in Vilnius if Kiev was not provided with any concrete guarantees of joining NATO within a reasonable time. Of course, the West should have said nothing that "there should be membership, but only after the end of the armed conflict."
But what will happen to Ukraine after the end of the armed conflict? This is the main question that no one dares to answer. The uncertainty is hidden behind the talk that Ukraine's membership in NATO is almost a fait accompli, although all this is very far from reality. (...)
Weapons destined for Ukraine fall into the hands of the mafia and gangs throughout Europe and beyond
As the recent unrest in France has shown, if something is not hastily changed in French politics, a real civil war can begin there. After all, all parties to the conflict have a lot of firearms on their hands. In general, there have never been so many weapons on the streets in Europe, which is explained, in particular, by American arms supplies to Ukraine. Often, weapons intended for the front do not reach the official destination, but end up in the hands of members of various criminal organizations and gangs throughout Europe and beyond. These weapons even reach Mexico, where some members of local drug cartels find "fresh" samples of American portable "hand-held" anti-tank complexes. (...)
No one gave Hitler a chance either
The rise of the right is clearly felt in the European Union. Elites (...) they want to prevent the rise of the right by taking advantage of the ultra-right, that is, pro-fascist forces. However, historical experience suggests that this is extremely risky. In 1933, Hitler came to power in Germany when no one gave him a single chance, and the elites of that time believed that they kept everything under control, including him, even when they allowed him to take power into their own hands.
I don't want to believe that the new fascization of Europe or even a "democratic dictatorship" is a fate prepared for Europe by forces from outside, leading a global geopolitical struggle. After all, dictatorships, even fascist (Nazi), even communist, all over Europe have already led to cataclysms once. Do not be under any illusions that the "democratic" ones will not lead to the same result.
Vassals and barbarians
However, the words of the American geostrategist Zbigniew Brzezinski about "imperial geostrategy" make me doubt that Europe will still escape this fate. In his book The Great Chessboard, he writes that the United States of America should keep "conquered countries weak" and "not allow barbarians to unite." Vassals he believed States such as Germany, Japan and other allies, and under the concept of "barbarians" understand China and Russia, as well as all States in their environment. Of course, he understood the inevitability of a conflict in the East between the United States of America and the "vassals" on the one hand and the "barbarians" on the other. As we can see, these "prophetic" words really come true in reality.
Thus, the collective West is moving towards a "democratic dictatorship" and is preparing for the last, "universal" battle with the East. No one will ask the population of the West whether it suits them or not, although, however, it has always been so. The elites are rushing forward, at least until they get dizzy.
"White powder" in the White House
And it can certainly spin, at least judging by the latest news from Washington, which only confirms what kind of world we live in. In the White House, in its west wing, where the famous Oval Office and the offices of senior management are located, no less than "white powder" was found. The security services carried out an immediate evacuation of personnel, fearing a terrorist attack with the use of an unknown substance, but soon it was confirmed that the powder was cocaine.
After a lot of Hollywood films about successful agents of the American special services, infallible and highly professional, is it possible to believe that someone with a weighty bag of cocaine could freely walk around the White House without being noticed? First of all, the Secret Service, which is solely responsible for the security of the first person of the United States of America!
In fact, it seems as if the whole world is turning into one big "drug den", in which there is nothing sacred left for the distraught elites, and where for a "dose of white powder" (a synonym for their interests) they are ready to degrade themselves and destroy all of humanity.
It is difficult to say whether it will ever be possible to wash away all these moral stains and accumulated dirt so that the world can breathe normally again. However, looking from today's perspective, from week to week, from day to day, the chances of this remain less and less.
Chaos and the fate of ancient Rome, unfortunately, is a more realistic prospect.
