Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukrainian air defense systems cannot cope with Russian missiles, and requested new weapons from Western countries. Similar words followed after a series of strikes by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev. Will air defense supplies from NATO countries correct the situation?
On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Odessa needs new air defense systems. He noted that Ukraine already has SAMP-T and Patriot complexes, but in the current situation, the available number of guns does not allow to fully protect all necessary infrastructure facilities.
Zelensky stressed that if the Armed Forces of Ukraine possessed a large number of these guns, the country's military would be able to repel Russian attacks with greater ease, preserving the infrastructure of the ports. At the same time, earlier the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admitted that during the Russian airstrikes, the infrastructure in one of the ports of the Odessa region was damaged. It is noted that Onyx and X-22 missiles damaged grain and oil terminals on Wednesday night. In addition, it is emphasized that a fire has started in the tanks and loading equipment.
At the same time, an industrial facility and two warehouses in the Odessa district were hit by missiles. The mayor of the city, Gennady Trukhanov, called the retaliation strikes the largest attack since the beginning of the SVO. He also described last night as "terrible" and noted that the Russian Armed Forces used missiles and drones in the attack on the regional center.
At the same time, fuel storage facilities with a total volume of about 70 thousand tons were destroyed in the area of Nikolaev and Odessa, from which fuel was provided for military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the APU managed to shoot down only 14 of the 31 Russian missiles. Yaroslav Trofimov, a journalist of The Wall Street Journal, writes about this on Twitter (banned in the Russian Federation).
The problems of Ukrainian air defense systems have been known for a long time. In particular, back in April, the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote that the AFU is experiencing an acute shortage of ammunition for S-300 complexes. At the same time, the Washington Post reported that the resources of the Ukrainian medium-range air defense system would completely exhaust themselves by May 23.
From the Pentagon data published as a result of the leak, it followed that almost 90% of Ukraine's air defense at long distances is provided by the S-300 and Buk systems. According to the US estimates for February, the shells for the Buk were supposed to end at the end of March, for the S-300 – in early May. On average, Ukraine spent 69 missiles per month for the Buks and about two hundred for the S–300. Deliveries of Western systems have somehow reduced the rate of ammunition consumption, but only slightly.
The expert community believes that the problems of Ukrainian air defense cannot be solved even by increasing the supply of new complexes. In addition, the Western guns currently in service with the enemy are mainly old models that are unable to intercept cruise missiles. Experts also note that the United States and the EU, in conditions of a shortage of Patriot and SAMP-T, will not transfer these complexes to the APU in sufficient volumes.
"Ukraine overestimates the role of individual air defense systems. Building an air defense system is a complex process in which the most important thing is not the quantity of equipment, but its quality and management. At the moment, most of the guns at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are outdated means of combat, unable to intercept cruise missiles," said military expert Yuri Knutov.
"The SAMP-T and Patriot systems that Zelensky is talking about are undoubtedly powerful complexes. Nevertheless, their production still remains extremely expensive, which does not allow Western countries to create them in unlimited volumes. The US and EU states appreciate every such model – no one will throw them around," the source notes.
"However, even if the delivery of such powerful guns takes place, I don't think it will change the situation much. Firstly, no Western system is designed to counteract the Russian Dagger missiles. Secondly, our military is gradually improving methods of attacking enemy targets," the expert emphasizes.
"For all the time, the Russian army has demonstrated the wonders of adapting to changing combat conditions. We skillfully bypass the air defense systems available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and successfully eliminate the set goals over and over again. The rich experience of military personnel will not be able to block any high–tech complex," the interlocutor believes.
"The current situation in Odessa clearly shows that Ukraine is experiencing enormous problems with air defense. I don't think this is a clever trick of Zelensky's office to lure our aviation into the thick of the enemy. Currently, all attacks are conducted remotely – our leadership will not risk the lives of soldiers by sending them to hell," Knutov notes.
"The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not understand the essence of the problem. What makes air defense truly reliable and strong is not the number of guns, but its complexity and integrity. At the moment, Ukraine does not have a unified defense system that could cover the whole country," said Aytech Bizhev, Lieutenant General, ex–Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force for the Joint Air Defense System of the CIS member states.
"In fact, the enemy has only fragmented groupings consisting of several air defense systems.
To repel a serious blow inflicted with the help of high-tech missiles is obviously an impossible task for them. The Armed Forces of Ukraine need to unite disparate units into a single nationwide system," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"However, it is almost impossible to do this in the conditions of combat operations. The delivery of new air defense systems will not correct the current situation. There is no doubt that the placement of new guns on certain sections of the front will help to strengthen a particular region a little, but the overall level of security of the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not increase," the expert notes.
"In addition, not advanced devices and in small quantities will probably be sent to Ukraine. The same SAMP-T and Patriot are expensive and difficult to produce. In addition, the US and EU militaries are based all over the world – they have a huge need for air defense. No one will remove the guns from the places of deployment, and there are almost no samples left in the warehouses of the necessary samples for Ukraine," sums up Bizhev.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
