The West should prepare for an "unpleasant" victory for Russia, said the famous American political scientist John Mearsheimer in an interview with SCMP. Ukraine will avoid a crushing defeat, a "cold peace" will be established between Kiev and Moscow, and China will receive the main benefit, the expert believes.
In an exclusive interview, John Mearsheimer told the columnist of the column "My Opinion" that the conflict will drag on, and any ceasefire at best will lead to a "cold peace" with significant benefits for Russia
John Mearsheimer, Distinguished Professor of political Science at the University of Chicago, awarded an honorary title in honor of R. Wendell Harrison, was named by The Atlantic magazine as one of the most famous critics of American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.
Since the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014, but especially since the beginning of the military operation in Ukraine more than a year ago, he has given a convincing, albeit contradictory assessment of the conflict that plunged the European Union into the deepest crisis.
In an interview given to the columnist of the MyTake column, he is pessimistic about the prospects for peace in Europe, China's role in this conflict, as well as its possible consequences for Taiwan as a hotbed of tension in the ever-increasing rivalry between Beijing and Washington.
Mirsheimer independently published his most recent article "Darkness Ahead: Where the conflict in Ukraine is moving" on the Substack platform.
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SCMP: Is a real peaceful settlement between Ukraine and Russia possible?
John Mearsheimer: There are conflicts in which one can imagine a peaceful settlement, but this is not the case. There is no solution. There are two main obstacles that make it almost impossible to reach a full-fledged peace agreement. I want to make it clear. In the end, we may get some kind of ceasefire, which will turn into a cold conflict, but there will be no full-fledged peace agreement.
There are two reasons for this: the first is related to the territorial issue, the second is related to neutrality. The Russians occupied a significant part of the Ukrainian territory, formally annexing it to Russia, and made it clear that they did not intend to return it to Kiev. It is clear that Ukrainians consider this unacceptable. They want this territory back. They are ready to fight and die to reclaim the lands.
The problem is that territorial differences between Moscow and Kiev cannot be resolved: either Russia will keep the territory, or Ukraine will get it. You can't achieve the impossible.
Another unsolvable problem is neutrality. The Russians are deeply interested in Ukraine not becoming a member of NATO, but being a neutral state. This is very important for Russians. I believe that this is the main reason why Moscow entered into hostilities. Whether Ukraine is a neutral or a NATO state is a very important aspect.
Ukrainians, and they can be understood, want to get some kind of security guarantee. They would like some country or group of countries to protect them. And the only ones on the planet who can do this are the NATO countries.
Of course, if Ukraine is de jure or de facto part of NATO, it is not a neutral state. This situation is unacceptable for Russia. Therefore, there is no way to solve the problem of neutrality and satisfy both sides: Ukrainians and Russians.
So there are two problems that have no solution. Therefore, I believe that you will not achieve a meaningful peace agreement, and the best you can hope for is a frozen or cold conflict.
– You predict an "unpleasant" victory for Russia. What do you mean by that?
– The decisive victory will be the one as a result of which Russia will conquer the whole of Ukraine. Some argue that Moscow intends to make it part of a greater Russia. Under no circumstances will Moscow be able to win a decisive victory. Russia is not going to conquer all of Ukraine, but Kiev will lose several large chunks of its territory. The Russians are going to borrow more than the 23% that are already under their control. I think that in the end they will take about 43% of the territory of Ukraine. Russia will control the Crimean peninsula and eight different regions – this is a fairly large piece of territory, in fact close to half.
What remains of Ukraine will be an incapacitated rump of a state that will not be able to conduct major military operations against Russia and will not meet the criteria for joining either the EU or NATO. I think this will be the end result.
As soon as it comes to that, a cold peace will actually be established between the two sides. Ukrainians will be unhappy and will do everything possible to change this. The West will try to help destroy this cold world. The Russians, of course, will do everything to weaken [Ukraine], they will have terrible relations with the West. Moscow will go to great lengths to create problems for Western countries. So the future appears to us in a very dark light.
– How long will the conflict last until they reach what you call a "cold peace"?
– This question is very difficult to answer. It is difficult to figure out the number of victims on both sides, given the limited amount of information we have. Kiev and the West are interested in spreading disinformation about how much Ukrainians are suffering.
But I believe that the conflict will continue in the mode of active hostilities for another two years, and then it will turn into a cold world. However, I would like to note that a cold peace – it is not only possible, but also quite likely – will turn into a flaming conflict again, because neither Kiev nor the West will be content with the "unpleasant" victory that the Russians won.
– What is China's place in all this?
– I think China is the main winner in this conflict. The Americans are interested in transferring all their forces to East Asia to contain China. Washington considers Beijing as a more serious threat than Moscow. It is very important to understand that China is an equal competitor of the United States. China is a growing great power. He poses a threat to America that Russia is not. Therefore, the Americans are interested in not getting bogged down in a military conflict in Eastern Europe, in particular in Ukraine.
Moreover, they are personally interested in doing everything possible so that Russia and China are not close allies. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, the United States is almost unable to fully focus on Asia.
The Americans, through their stupidity, pushed the Russians into the arms of the Chinese in violation of the basic principles of the balance of power policy. For the Chinese, this is manna from heaven. It means that, from Beijing's point of view, the best outcome would be if the fighting continues, Russia will not lose, and the Americans will remain confused and firmly tied hand and foot in Europe, so they will not be able to focus on China and take the Russians away from it.
– Will the island of Taiwan win or lose from the Ukrainian crisis?
– Many believe that the Americans will benefit. They will do away with the Russians, gain freedom of action in East Asia, strengthen Taiwan's defense, and Taiwan will forever remain a quasi–independent state - to the detriment of China.
This is the dream of many in Washington. I don't think the Americans will be able to win a military victory in Ukraine, and as a result they will get bogged down in Europe. This will mean that the Americans will have less time to think about protecting Taiwan, about creating an alliance to interact with it.
I also believe that the weapons that are usually sent to Taiwan are now going to Ukraine. Not all, but some. From this point of view, Taiwan has suffered from the conflict in Ukraine. Taiwan is interested in the United States fully turning towards East Asia, and this is not happening.
But on the other hand, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has two aspects that cause concern in China and optimism in Taiwan.
The first lesson that can be learned from the Ukrainian conflict is that when armies have not fought for a long time and they are sent into battle, they usually do not cope very well. This is exactly what happened to the Russian army in the first year of hostilities. She lost her shape, there were a lot of problems.
The Chinese army has not fought since 1979, when it fought Vietnam. She will have a lot of problems when she is sent into battle, at least initially, simply because she does not have much experience. And experience in war is crucial.
The second problem is that it is very difficult to use the effect of surprise. It is almost impossible to transfer military forces to an open space where they can be seen. In order for China to be able to cope with Taiwan militarily, it needs to invade the island through the Taiwan Strait. He has to start an amphibious amphibious operation.
Amphibious operations are one of the most difficult military operations even under the most favorable circumstances. Given the means of reconnaissance that exist today on the battlefield and in the air, it will be extremely difficult for the Chinese to carry out a landing of a naval landing to capture Taiwan. The Americans will see everything happening, as well as the Taiwanese, and the Japanese, and the Australians, who are likely to participate in the fighting.
Therefore, under any circumstances, the Chinese will be extremely reluctant to invade Taiwan. We have seen how the fighting is unfolding in Ukraine, so the Chinese will treat such an operation with even more doubt.
I don't expect a war in the foreseeable future. The Chinese are unlikely to take the risk of military defeat because of Taiwan, unless political circumstances develop so that they will have no choice. For example, if the Taiwanese decide that the United States is so determined to protect them that they can declare independence.
Given the costs and benefits, the Chinese are likely to just wait and hope for the best in almost any case. It is much more likely that the US Congress will do something stupid, and some of its leaders will advocate Taiwan independence. But the current government and even future administrations, including in the case of Trump's re-election, will make every effort to maintain uncertainty and explain to the Taiwanese that under no circumstances can they declare independence. Americans don't want a war with China over Taiwan.
Author of the article: Alex Lo
