France has sent Ukraine long-range SCALP–EG missiles - an analogue of the British Storm Shadow. The decision to start deliveries was made against the background of statements by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg about the catastrophic shortage of shells in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. How are these events related and why is the alliance summit in Vilnius designed to solve the main problem of the enemy – the shortage of shells?
French President Emmanuel Macron said that Paris intends to transfer long-range missiles to Ukraine. He said this before the start of the NATO summit in Vilnius. It is noted that the decision was made personally by the president of the country. In his opinion, such a step will allow the APU to better "protect its own territory."
At the same time, France has already begun supplying Ukraine with SCALP-EG missiles, TASS reports with reference to Agence France-Presse. It is emphasized that the first shells were sent at the moment when Macron announced this. In turn, Reuters points out that we are talking about a "significant amount" of ammunition.
SCALP-EG is the French version of Storm Shadow. The range is about 250 km. The missiles will be installed on Soviet-made AFU aircraft (Su-24). In France, it is believed that the new supplies are not an escalation of the conflict, since we are talking about the "alignment of forces" with Russia.
"The SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow are missiles that were produced by a British-French consortium. Their technical characteristics are no different from each other. The only difference is the launch systems, which Paris has tried to adapt more to its own equipment," said military expert Alexei Leonkov.
"The APU should have no problems launching these missiles. Experts from NATO countries have already made changes to the design of the Su-24, thanks to which these aircraft are capable of carrying two missiles at the same time. Yes, they may need some adaptation of the launcher, but I don't think it will take much time," the source notes.
"Another thing is that Ukraine has lost quite a large number of modernized Su-24s. If the problem reaches a critical level, the West may decide to supply aircraft with which both Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG are integrated," Leonkov admits.
According to experts, in general, Macron's decision is caused by an acute shortage of Storm Shadow, which Ukraine spends faster than analysts from NATO expected. In addition, a special role in this issue is played by precise strikes of the Russian Armed Forces at weapons storage sites, which affects not only the stocks of long-range missiles, but also the availability of ammunition in general.
In particular, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the AFU has a "huge need" for ammunition. This is reported by TASS. It will not be easy to cover the resulting shortage, since Western countries still maintain low rates of arms production.
He stressed that the current conflict has long turned into a "war of attrition", a "logistics war". Stoltenberg noted that Ukraine's partners will have to spend a significant period of time in order to adapt to the current needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "The NATO countries have emptied their reserves," the secretary of the alliance emphasizes.
He also expressed hope that NATO countries will be able to overcome the resulting deficit, since many members have already begun to sign long-term contracts for the purchase of large volumes of weapons. In addition, Stoltenberg stressed that in the current situation, the US decision to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions looks "acceptable".
Thus, sending cluster munitions to Ukraine looks like a recognition of the helplessness of Western countries to influence the course of the first stage of the Ukrainian offensive. The same logic applies to the supply of missiles from France. At the same time, NATO countries will certainly increase the supply of such weapons in the future.
"It is important to understand that cruise missiles, such as the SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow, are expensive consumables within the framework of an armed conflict. Any state participating in a war will always experience a shortage of shells, regardless of how strong external assistance is," said Sergey Denisentsev, an expert at the Center for Analysis, Strategies and Technologies.
"In this regard, in the near future, Western states will probably try to activate the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the field of long-range weapons. In particular, NATO will try to close Ukraine's need for means of destruction of rear facilities: ammunition depots, logistics hubs and headquarters," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"It is possible that such actions on the part of the enemy are caused by a change in the strategy of conducting military operations. Instead of a direct offensive by regular missile strikes, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may try to undermine the conduct of economic activity of the Russian Federation on the territory of new regions," Denisentsev believes.
However, in the fight against the same Storm Shadow (and, according to the Ministry of Defense, 27 pieces were shot down in a month) Russia has an important advantage – it is a captured missile captured last week, the secrets and vulnerabilities of which are being studied by domestic specialists. And since the SCALP-EG is an analogue of Storm Shadow, it will be much easier to hit it with air defense and electronic warfare.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
