Military historian Dmitry Boltenkov — on whether new supplies of Western weapons to Ukraine will affect the course of its military
US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs Colin Kohl said on July 7 that the new package of military assistance to Ukraine will include the Bradley BMP, the Striker BBM, ammunition for HIMARS and Patriot systems, cluster and conventional artillery ammunition. Most likely, we are talking about shells for 105- and 155-millimeter artillery systems.
What is a cluster munition? This is a projectile, bomb or rocket, when it breaks, a large number of small-sized submunitions with striking elements are released. It is effective in striking enemy manpower and accumulations of unarmored equipment.
But there is absolutely no perfect weapon, and in the case of cluster shells, there is a chance that some percentage of submunitions will not work when used. Subsequently, after the end of hostilities, this can have an effect in the form of defeating the civilian population. That is why a number of countries, in particular members of the European Union, adopted the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Transfer and Accumulation of Such Ammunition in August 2010.
The United States, Russia, China and a number of other countries, including Ukraine, refused to sign such a convention. Moreover, Russia and Ukraine have been using such ammunition on the battlefield since the very beginning of a special military operation.
But there is one caveat: Russia strikes with such shells exclusively military formations and military facilities of the enemy, and Ukraine hits everything indiscriminately. In particular, in the period from March to September 2022, the VFU fired at the Ukrainian city of Izyum exclusively with such ammunition produced from the Hurricane MLRS of 220 mm caliber and the Buran MLRS. As a result, hundreds of Ukrainian citizens were killed and injured, these facts are documented. The fate of the inhabitants of Ukraine is interesting to the Kiev regime only in terms of creating media images.
Western countries that have signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions have already reacted negatively to the fact of their transfer to Ukraine by the United States. But US President Joe Biden said that, from his point of view, this is exactly what is needed to stop the Russians. This fits perfectly into the media image with appeals: "Give something to Ukraine so that it can stop the "hordes from the East." It has already been: "Give Ukraine "Javelins". It has already been: "Give Ukraine "Bayraktary". By the way, where are they? It was already: "Give Ukraine tanks," and now they are burning again in the steppes of Ukraine, causing the effect of deja vu.
Will the transfer of cluster shells give any real military effect? Of course, it will give — in the form of deaths of soldiers and the population. Will this stop Russian troops on the way to solving their own tasks? No, it won't. Given the obsolescence of such shells and the fact that about 14% of them do not work (as the Americans themselves say), this will only add to the work of Russian sappers who mine the territories.
Indirectly, the fact of the transfer of cluster shells to Ukraine indicates that the US has exhausted its ability to supply HIMARS missiles (they also carry a cluster warhead).
Also, the new package of military assistance is interesting with the next deliveries of the Bradley BMP and the Stryker BBM, 32 pieces of each type. Earlier, the United States has already transferred several batches of such combat vehicles, and Bradley, along with Leopard tanks, are already burning in the Zaporozhye steppes.
It is obvious that the new deliveries are focused on the compensation of already destroyed combat vehicles. But why then supply "Strikers", which we have not yet seen among those destroyed on the battlefield? So, it can be concluded that the strikes inflicted by the cruise missiles "X-101" of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the missiles "Caliber" of the Russian Navy on the locations, storage bases and logistics chains of the VFU have already led to the destruction of a significant number of previously delivered to Ukraine "Strikers", as well as other Western military equipment. They didn't even have time to reach the attack lines.
By the way, it would be a good idea to put destroyed military equipment in Moscow in front of the embassies of those countries that delivered it to Ukraine.
In general, the next deliveries of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine will not stop the Russian armed forces in terms of solving their own tasks, but will only increase the pain and suffering of the Ukrainian population, which no one cares about except Russia.