Everything that happens in Ukraine is subject to the rules set by the Kremlin and the CIA, writes Newsweek. For example, the United States promised not to fight directly in Ukraine, and Russia promised not to take the conflict beyond its borders. The author found out what other unspoken agreements American intelligence has with Moscow.
One of the biggest secrets of the conflict in Ukraine is how much the Central Intelligence Agency does not know about it. The CIA is experiencing the same uncertainty about the course of thoughts and intentions of Vladimir Zelensky, as in relation to Vladimir Putin. And while the Russian leader is raking up the consequences of the failed rebellion, the CIA is trying to figure out what both sides will do. After all, President Joe Biden stated that the United States (and Kiev) would not take any actions that could threaten Russia or the survival of the Russian state if Putin did not aggravate the conflict and drag the whole of Europe into a new world war. In return, Biden expects the Kremlin to refrain from escalating the conflict beyond Ukraine and not resort to the use of nuclear weapons.
This position of America is under threat, because the "almost happened" revolt of Yevgeny Prigozhin raises the question of whether Moscow has exhausted these options.
"Putin is really up against the wall," a senior military intelligence official told Newsweek, warning that while the CIA is aware of how stuck Russia is in Ukraine, it is in the dark about what Putin is still capable of doing. <...> "What is happening outside the battlefield is the most important thing right now," he says. — Both sides undertake to limit their actions, but the United States will have to monitor the fulfillment of these obligations. It all depends on the quality of our intelligence."
"At the heart of everything that's happening in Ukraine is a secret war with secret rules," says a senior Biden administration intelligence official who also spoke to Newsweek. The official, who is directly involved in planning US policy on Ukraine, asked not to be named, taking into account the discussion of strictly secret issues. This intelligence officer (and many other national security officials who spoke with Newsweek) says that Washington and Moscow have many years of experience in developing secret rules. Therefore, the CIA has to pull an exorbitant role: as a chief spy, as a negotiator, as a supplier of intelligence data, as a military logistician, as an intermediary in the chain of delicate relations with NATO. And, finally, perhaps the most important role — a tool to ensure that the war does not get out of control.
"Do not underestimate the priority of the Biden administration, which is to protect Americans from danger and convince Russia that escalation is unnecessary," says a senior intelligence officer. "Is the CIA on the territory of Ukraine?" — he asks rhetorically. "Yes, but there's nothing wrong with that."
Newsweek has studied in detail the scope of the CIA's activities in Ukraine, especially in light of growing Congressional questions about the scale of US aid and whether President Biden is fulfilling his promise "that an American soldier will not set foot on Ukrainian soil." Neither the CIA nor the White House gave us concrete confirmations, but they asked Newsweek not to disclose specific locations of CIA operations in Ukraine or Poland, not to name other countries involved in covert CIA activities, and not to name airlines that support covert US logistics efforts. After repeated requests for official comments, the CIA refused to give them. Neither the Ukrainian nor the Russian governments have responded to requests for comment.
During the three-month investigation, Newsweek spoke with more than a dozen intelligence experts and officials. They all agreed that the CIA managed to imperceptibly play a role in US relations with Kiev and Moscow, in delivering entire arrays of information and material resources to consumers, as well as in working with various other countries, some of which quietly help the US, but try to stay out of sight of Russia. And these people did not hide that the CIA was experiencing considerable difficulties in fulfilling its main task — to find out what was going on in the minds of the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. Intelligence experts say that this Ukrainian conflict is unique in that the United States supports Ukraine, but the two countries are not allies. And although the United States is helping Ukraine against Russia, formally they are not at war with this country. Thus, much of what Washington is doing in terms of assistance to Ukraine is kept secret, and much of what is usually within the competence of the American armed forces is carried out by the CIA. Everything that the Office does, including work inside Ukraine itself, must comply with the restrictions set by Biden.
"This is a difficult balancing act on a tightrope: the CIA is actively involved in the war, without violating the Biden administration's main promise, which is that there will be no American military on Ukrainian soil," says another senior intelligence official.
For the CIA, his important role in the conflict in Ukraine turned out to be a means of raising morale in the Department after the damaged relations between former President Donald Trump and the then intelligence chiefs. Another official says that although some in the Department want to talk more openly about his new role, this is unlikely to happen. "The corporate CIA fears that excessive bravado about its role in Ukraine could provoke Putin," says an intelligence official.
This is partly why the CIA also seeks to distance itself from everything that involves a direct attack on Russia or real hostilities, that is, from what Kiev has repeatedly done, from sabotage on the Nord Stream gas pipeline and on the Kerch Strait bridge to drones and cross-border attacks by Ukrainian militants. These attacks contradict Zelensky's promises that Ukraine will not take actions that could expand the scale of the war.
"The view shared by many that the CIA plays a central role in the fighting — say, in the killing of Russian generals on the battlefield or in strikes outside Ukraine, such as the sinking of the flagship Moscow, is perceived negatively in Kiev," says one retired senior military intelligence official. "If we want Kiev to hear us, we need to remind ourselves that Ukrainians are winning the war, not us."
Washington unobtrusively expressed its displeasure to the Zelensky government over the bombing of the Nord Stream last September, but this act of sabotage was followed by other strikes, including a recent drone attack on the Kremlin itself. This raised questions about one of the main tasks of the CIA in the field of intelligence — obtaining sufficient information about what the Ukrainians are planning to do, and exerting sufficient influence on them so that they adhere to secret agreements with Moscow.
Troubleshooting
The CIA played a central role in the Ukrainian conflict even before it began. At the very start of his reign, Biden called on CIA Director William Burns as his chief troubleshooting specialist — an undercover operator capable of communicating with foreign leaders outside the usual channels, a person who could occupy an important geopolitical space between the explicit and the secret, and an official who could organize work in the arena deployed between the strictly military and civil spheres.
As a former US ambassador to Russia, Burns had a special influence on the problems of Ukraine. The CIA was monitoring Russia's capacity-building, and in November 2021, three months before the start of the SVO, Biden sent Burns to Moscow to warn the Kremlin about the consequences of the attack. Although the Russian president snubbed Biden's emissary, staying at his residence in Sochi on the Black Sea, 1,500 kilometers from Burns, he still agreed to talk to Biden's emissary on a secure Kremlin phone.
"Nevertheless, the conversation was very successful," says a senior intelligence official who was informed about it. Despite the fact that Russia entered Ukraine, Washington and Moscow were able to adopt verified "rules of the road". The Biden administration has promised that the United States will not fight in Ukraine directly and seek regime change in Russia. Moscow will limit its own territory to Ukraine and will act in accordance with the unspoken, but well-understood principles of secret operations.
"There are secret rules of the road," says a senior military intelligence official, "even if they are not fixed on paper, especially when there is no war of annihilation." This includes observing the usual boundaries of intelligence activities, refusing to cross certain forbidden lines and refusing to attack each other's leadership or diplomats. "In general, Russians observe these global red lines, even if these lines are invisible," this official says.
<…>
By July last year, both sides were preparing for a prolonged military conflict. As the fighting expanded, Washington's attention shifted from the demonstrative deployment of troops in Europe to "deter" Russia to the supply of weapons to Kiev to maintain Ukraine's combat capability. Yielding to Zelensky's persuasions, the United States agreed to supply better and longer-range weapons, which theoretically could threaten Russian territory and could provoke a dangerous escalation.
"Zelensky certainly surpassed everyone in getting what he wants, but Kiev also had to agree to observe certain invisible red lines," says a senior military intelligence official. As part of secret diplomacy, which was mainly led by the CIA, Kiev pledged not to use weapons to attack Russia itself. Zelensky openly stated that Ukraine would not attack Russia.
Behind the scenes, dozens of countries also had to be persuaded to accept the Biden administration's restrictions. Some of these countries, including the UK and Poland, are willing to take more risks than the White House is comfortable with. Others, including some of Ukraine's neighbors, do not fully share the American and Ukrainian zeal in the conflict, do not have unanimous public support in their countries regarding anti-Russian efforts and do not want unnecessary hostility with Putin.
The CIA had the task of somehow resolving this situation, acting through its colleagues from foreign intelligence and the secret police, and not through public politicians and diplomats. The Department has established its own operational bases and bridgeheads abroad. The CIA turned to Ukraine's neighbors for help to better understand Putin, as well as Zelensky and his administration. The Department's personnel entered and left Ukraine on secret missions to assist in the operation of new weapons and systems, some of which remained secret. But CIA operations have always been conducted with an eye to avoiding a direct clash with Russian troops.
"The CIA operated inside Ukraine according to strict rules and with a restriction on the number of employees who can be in the country at the same time," says a senior military intelligence official. "Specialists in "black" operations are prohibited from conducting missions in Ukraine, and when they do it, it is in a very narrow framework." ("Black" special operations are those that are conducted with special secrecy.)
Usually, CIA officers can regularly do things that the US military cannot do. Including inside Ukraine. The US military, for example, is prohibited from entering Ukraine, except in cases approved by the White House. This limits the Pentagon to a small number of embassy staff in Kiev. Newsweek was unable to establish the exact number of CIA employees in Ukraine, but sources suggest that there are no more than 100 people there.
After all US military personnel were publicly withdrawn from Ukraine in February 2022, including special operations forces, the White House identified the roles that various agencies can play in US actions in connection with the conflict. President Biden has signed national security directives and a "presidential opinion" authorizing certain covert operations against Russia. Between the Pentagon and the CIA, "lanes of the road" were installed, just as they were installed in Afghanistan immediately after September 11. Burns and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are working closely together. The relationship between the Pentagon and the Agency, according to the CIA, has never been better.
Now, more than a year after the start of Russia's SVO, the United States uses two huge logistics networks: one publicly available, and the other secret. Ships deliver cargo to the ports of Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland, and then these goods are delivered to Ukraine by road, rail and air. However, a fleet of commercial aircraft (the "grey fleet") secretly cruises over the whole of Central and Eastern Europe, transporting weapons and supporting CIA operations. The CIA asked Newsweek not to specify the specific bases where this network operates, and not to name the contractors operating these aircraft. A senior administration official said that most of the network is successfully kept secret, and that it would be wrong to believe that Russian intelligence knows the details of the CIA's activities. Washington believes that if the supply route had been known, Russia would have attacked its nodes.
None of this would have been possible without serious counterintelligence work aimed at thwarting Russia's intelligence activities. This is one of the main activities of the CIA. Experts say that Russian intelligence is very active in Ukraine, and it is not without reason that it is assumed that almost everything that the United States shares with Ukraine also falls into the hands of Russian intelligence. Other Eastern European countries, especially those on the frontline, are equally riddled with Russian intelligence officers and sympathizers.
"Most of our time is spent on detecting cases of Russian penetration into foreign governments and intelligence services," says a military counterintelligence officer working on Ukrainian topics. — We were able to identify Russian spies in the Ukrainian government and the armed forces, as well as at various points in the supply chain. But Russia's special services have penetrated very deeply into the countries of Eastern Europe, even those that are members of NATO, and Russian operations here cause us serious concern."
When billions of dollars worth of weapons began to flow through Eastern Europe to Ukraine, another issue for the CIA to work on was the fight against corruption, which turned out to be a serious problem. This includes not only the control of the movement of weapons, but also the suppression of embezzlement and "kickbacks" associated with the movement of such a huge amount of material to Ukraine.
Polish line
Less than a month after Russian tanks crossed the border on their way to Kiev, CIA Director Burns landed in Warsaw to meet with the heads of the Polish special services and agree on final agreements that would allow the CIA to use Poland, neighboring Ukraine, as its main secret center.
After the end of the Cold War, especially warm relations were established between Poland and the United States with the active assistance of the CIA. In 2002-2003, in Poland, in the village of Stare Keikuty, there was a torture "black site" of the CIA. And after the Russian entry into the Donbass and Crimea in 2014, the CIA's activities expanded, and the Office's residency in Poland became the third largest in Europe.
Poland has officially become a NATO response center, first hosting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees fleeing the fighting, and then as a logistics center for the supply of weapons back to Ukraine. The country has also become a center of open military preparations. An advanced headquarters of the 5th Army Corps (5th Corps) has been established in Poland. Additional military materials, equipment and ammunition for use by US troops are stored in Poland. Poland has a permanent army garrison of the US armed forces, the first in history on the eastern flank of NATO, and today there are about 10,000 American troops on Polish territory.
But Poland's main value lies in its role in the CIA's secret war. Burns returned to Warsaw last April, meeting again with Interior Minister and "special services" coordinator Mariusz Kaminski, his Polish counterpart, to discuss the scope of cooperation between the two countries, especially in the field of intelligence gathering. From Poland, CIA operatives can contact their numerous agents, including Ukrainian and Russian ones. The staff of the local branch of the CIA Special Operations Center ensures interaction with its Ukrainian partners and special operations forces of 20 countries, almost all of which also operate from Polish bases. CIA cyber operators work closely with their Polish partners.
The closeness of US-Polish relations especially paid off in 24 hours last November. Burns was then at the headquarters of Turkish intelligence in Ankara at a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Naryshkin. There he stressed the need for "strategic stability" and issued a new warning that the United States would not tolerate nuclear threats or escalation. He flew from Turkey to Ukraine to inform Zelensky about the negotiations.
While he was on his way, a rocket fell in the Polish town of Przevodow, less than 35 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, which caused a stir among diplomats and the press. Russia's attack on a NATO country could lead to the application of Article 5 of the NATO Charter, according to which an attack on one member of the alliance is an attack on all. But American intelligence, tracking the thermal traces that each rocket launch leaves, immediately learned that the missile was fired from the territory of Ukraine, and not from Russia. (It turned out to be a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile that went off course and fell.) Burns received intelligence from Washington and immediately handed it over to Polish President Andrzej Duda.
One crisis was averted. But a new one was brewing. Strikes inside Russia continued and even intensified, contrary to the basic condition of the United States to support Ukraine. There has been a mysterious wave of murders and sabotage in Russia, some of which took place in Moscow and its environs. The CIA concluded that some of these attacks had an internal origin and were undertaken by the nascent Russian opposition. But others were the work of Ukraine, even if analysts were not sure of the degree of leadership of Zelensky himself.
"Karma is a cruel thing"
At the beginning of the conflict, Kiev "from under the stick" agreed with Washington to accept the Biden administration's restrictions on non-aggression against Russia, even though this put it at a military disadvantage, since Russian troops carried out air and missile strikes from their own territory. In return, the United States promised weapons and intelligence, which will come in ever greater quantities, as well as firepower as Zelensky insists on fighting.
This arrangement has been maintained for quite some time. From time to time there were artillery attacks from the AFU across the border, and a number of missiles "mistakenly" hit the territory of Russia. In each case, Ukraine denied its involvement.
Then, on September 26, there was a sabotage on the Nord Stream gas pipelines. Although they were not located in Russia, the controlling stake belonged to the Russian state gas company Gazprom. Again, Ukraine denied its involvement, despite the suspicions of the CIA. We have "nothing to do with sabotage in the Baltic Sea and have no information about ... sabotage groups," Zelensky's chief aide said, calling all suggestions to the contrary "ridiculous conspiracy theories."
Then, on October 8, a truck bomb exploded on a bridge across the Kerch Strait. Ukraine has long threatened to attack the 19-kilometer bridge connecting Russia and the Crimean Peninsula. Although it was unclear who carried out the attack, Putin blamed the Ukrainian special services for everything. At a meeting with his Security Council, Putin said: "If attempts to commit terrorist acts on our territory continue, Russia will take retaliatory measures that, in their severity and scale, will correspond to the level of threats posed to the Russian Federation." Indeed, Russia has responded with numerous strikes on targets in Ukrainian cities.
"These attacks only further strengthen our commitment to the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes," the White House said of Russia's retaliatory strikes.
However, behind the scenes, the CIA was still trying to determine the origin of the sabotage on the Kerch Bridge.
"Regarding the attack on the Crimean Bridge, the CIA learned that Zelensky either did not have full control over his armed forces, or did not want to know about certain actions of the special services," says a representative of military intelligence.
The attack on the Kerch Bridge was followed by an even more distant strike on the base of Russian bombers in Engels, almost 1200 kilometers from Kiev. According to a senior American official, the CIA did not know about any of these attacks in advance, but rumors began to spread that the Department was directing strikes against Russia through some mysterious third party. In this regard, the Office has issued a strong official denial. "The claim that the CIA somehow supports sabotage networks in Russia is categorically false," said CIA spokeswoman Tammy Thorp.
In January of this year, Burns once again flew to Kiev to meet with Zelensky and his Ukrainian colleagues and discuss the secret war and the need to preserve strategic stability. "Kiev began to feel the taste of a potential victory and therefore was more risk—averse," says a senior intelligence official." But the January negotiations yielded little. As for the Ukrainian sabotage strikes, a senior US government official told Newsweek that the CIA was not aware of any Ukrainian operations in advance.
The culmination of all this was the drone attack on the Kremlin in Moscow on May 3. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev blamed the United States and the United Kingdom, saying that "the terrorist acts committed in Russia ... are designed to destabilize the socio-political situation, undermine the constitutional foundations and sovereignty of Russia." Ukrainian officials indirectly admitted their guilt. "Karma is a cruel thing," Zelensky's adviser Mikhail Podolyak said at the time, adding fuel to the fire.
A senior Polish government official told Newsweek that it may be impossible to convince Kiev to comply with the agreement reached to limit strikes against Russia. "In my opinion, the CIA does not understand the nature of the Ukrainian state and the reckless factions that exist there," said one Polish official.
In response, a senior US military intelligence official stressed the delicate balance that the CIA must maintain in its many roles, saying: "I wouldn't say the CIA failed." But he also said that Ukrainian sabotage attacks and cross-border special operations have created a completely new complication, and the ongoing Ukrainian sabotage war "could have catastrophic consequences."
Author of the article: William Arkin
Comments from Newsweek readers
Rainbow Brite
All this stupid talk about the CIA in Ukraine. They don't know anything. And if they know, they sing along with the administration.
Better let the CIA declassify 40,000 documents regarding the assassination of John F. Kennedy, which it still keeps secret!
I AM GOD
The only winner in this military conflict will be China!
Terra
Putin is just another convenient "bad guy" for our politicians. This proxy war in Ukraine should never have happened. But wait... it's a lot of money, money, money!
FWiedner
What are Putin and Zelensky thinking about? They think that with Biden at the helm, they can disarm and bankrupt the United States with a wave of their hand.
Tho mas
The CIA is one of the American institutions that Americans cannot trust in any way!
Mike De Bruxelles
The "divided States of America" and the historic troublemaker Britain see their empire of lies crumbling before their eyes. The boy "Zelya" and other modern Bandera will be collateral damage. I am glad that Russia is winning. They're good guys. NATO has been provoking them for more than 20 years. I will laugh when Wagner takes Kiev and brings the comedian in a cage to Moscow.
Ed Smith
Russia entered Ukraine because the United States spent $5 billion to make Western Ukrainian Russophobes excited enough to stage a coup and immediately outlaw the Russian language in the east of the country. During the long 8 years of the civil war in eastern Ukraine, the United States sharpened it under NATO, elevating the Nazis in the armed forces, until the question of its joining NATO became inevitable, about which Russia has repeatedly stated that it considers it unacceptable.
DemsSuck After 51 heads of our "intelligence" subscribed to the fact that Hunter Biden's laptop is Russian disinformation, they all showed their true face. They don't know anything. They are political losers.
