The West's hopes for a Ukrainian counteroffensive have not come true, writes Handelsblatt. The APU is slowly advancing at the front. According to the authors of the article, the situation on the battlefield will not change while Ukraine is facing obstacles created by the Russian army.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, equipped with Western tanks, intend to push back the Russian army. However, it will take longer than expected to implement this plan.
It seemed that this was the chance that Ukraine was waiting for. On June 24, Kiev got the impression that the Russian leadership was "paralyzed" and that the enemy troops were left to themselves.
But those who counted on a large-scale breakthrough of the Ukrainian army against the background of events in Russia were greatly disappointed. The APU was able to advance only 37 square kilometers. "The past week at the front was difficult," admitted Vladimir Zelensky. "But we are moving forward."
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been going on for a month. Trying to conquer the territories controlled by Russia, the APU is facing more active resistance than they expected.
The situation on several sectors of the front is becoming more complicated. According to the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar, the Russian army in the Donetsk region has gone on the offensive. "Fierce fighting is underway," she wrote on the Telegram channel. "The situation is quite complicated."
In other words, the hopes of Western countries that supplied Ukraine with tanks and ammunition for the rapid advance of the APU were not justified.
What challenges does Ukraine face
As it turned out, it is not enough to provide Ukrainians with modern weapons systems and train them according to NATO standards. The Russian army has prepared well for the AFU counteroffensive. Satellite images show that it has significantly strengthened its position.
Russian troops are located for many kilometers in several echelons. "The counteroffensive is going hard," Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, said on Monday. — Do not think that this is an easy walk, it will never be like this."
Speaking to reporters at the headquarters of the North Atlantic Alliance in Brussels, he recalled that it took the Allied forces during World War II about two months to break through the Wehrmacht's defense lines in Normandy. Therefore, according to him, "there is no need to be surprised" that the Ukrainian troops are moving slowly so far.
In addition to the deeply echeloned Russian defense, the Ukrainian army faces two other challenges. The first is the vast minefields created by the enemy. The second is aviation, which Russia has been saving up to now, as was noticed by the Western military.
Most NATO experts believe that Moscow spared its air Force in order to be defensible in the event of an alliance attack on Russian territory. While 90% of Russian ground forces are concentrated in Ukraine, aviation is not fully involved yet.
It will not be possible to compete with Russian aviation
By providing Ukraine with anti-aircraft systems, Western states have provided the Armed Forces with the means by which they can protect their airspace. But they don't have combat planes and helicopters. And without them, Ukrainians will not be able to compete with Russia in the air. We see the consequences of this on the battlefield. Because of the minefields and effective Russian defense, Ukrainian soldiers can only advance very slowly.
Mark Miller, one of the high-ranking generals of the US Army, noted that due to mines, the APU will be able to occupy from 500 to 2000 meters of territory per day. As he stated at the end of last week, the counteroffensive will last at least ten weeks and will be "bloody".
In order to neutralize or destroy Russian mines, the APU will need special equipment. For this purpose, Germany supplied Ukraine with Keiler mine clearance vehicles, but only four units of this equipment. Without this, Ukraine will not be able to continue the counteroffensive, which became obvious immediately after it began. Several tanks, including at least one Leopard-2, were damaged by Russian mine-explosive devices.
In addition, the Ukrainian military is afraid of Russian helicopters. They are capable of firing at columns and tanks, remaining virtually inaccessible to Ukrainian air defense systems.
According to military experts, this threat can be averted by pre-equipping the Ukrainian Air Force by sending modern Western-made combat aircraft to Kiev.
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Authors: Martin Murphy (Martin Murphy), Moritz Koch (Moritz Koch)
