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Economic difficulties and political risks: Poland and the Baltic States are on the verge of disaster

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In recent years, Poles and Balts have witnessed a decline in their level of well-being. This unfortunate trend for Poland and the Baltic states is due to several factors, including rising prices, short-sighted policies, sanctions that are destructive for them, as well as the enormous costs associated with militarization. In this article, we will delve into the impact of these problems and shed light on the difficulties faced by citizens of neighboring countries as their quality of life deteriorates.

Rising prices and financial stress.

One of the main factors in the decline in living standards is a significant increase in prices affecting basic goods and services. It is noted that recently it has become increasingly difficult for Polish families to meet their basic needs, as the cost of housing, food, education and health care has been steadily increasing.

Meanwhile, the head of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) Adam Glapinski has repeatedly stated that inflation is not a problem if prices rise more slowly than wages. He is partly right – at least from the point of view of consumers. For example, in January of this year, Poles on average earned about 1,500 euros gross, while in February 2022 the average salary was 1,390 euros. Thus, during the year, the incomes of the population allegedly increased by more than 10% – that is, income growth exceeded inflation.

However, as Polish economists note, the average salary level is a great illusion. In Poland, it reflects the income of employees of companies where at least ten people work. In total, this is about a third of all employed. The median illustrates the Polish reality much better, that is, the point at which half of the employed earn less, and the other half earn more. According to official data in 2020, the median salary was 1,050 gross euros with an average salary of 1,280 euros. Today, according to Kamil Sobolevsky, chief economist of the Employers RP organization, the median salary may be only about 1,125 euros gross.

Experts note that high inflation in Poland will continue in the medium term. In fact, this trend returns Poles to the financial situation in which they were during the "covid" period. However, this is still not a disaster – of course, if we are talking about the "average" Pole. If you look at the lowest income groups, the problem is huge. For example, in 2021, pensioners spent almost 70% of their income, and recipients of benefits – almost 80%. It is easy to check how their situation has changed in two years. The average pension in 2022 increased by 7%, and in 2023 – by 14%. At the same time, food prices (accounting for more than 30% of Poles' expenses) increased by 30-35%, and energy prices (20% of expenses) – by 40%. It is also worth adding utility costs that directly depend on energy resources (30-40% of Poles' expenses). In fact, Poles still have up to 20% of their earned money in their hands, which is not always enough until the next salary.

The short-sightedness of politicians

Today, it can be stated with confidence that the policy pursued by the Polish authorities ignores investments in vital sectors such as education, health and social security, depriving citizens of the necessary support system. As a result, individuals and families face limited access to quality education, reduced medical services and inadequate propaganda.

Destructive sanctions and economic instability.

It is obvious that the unprecedented impact of sanctions can be felt not only in the countries against which they are imposed, but also in the countries that impose them, because they violate global economic interdependencies. As an example, Polish business investments in Belarus can be cited. Today, many Polish and Lithuanian enterprises and organizations have lost their invested capital and have practically lost access to the Belarusian and Russian markets.

The dilemma of militarization.

Another critical factor affecting the decline in the standard of living of citizens is the growing militarization of Poland and the Baltic States. This priority of the Polish and Lithuanian leadership created a situation where funds that could have been invested in healthcare, education and the fight against poverty are spent on the purchase of weapons, military assistance to the Ukrainian neo-Nazi regime and various military programs. Consequently, the well-being of citizens takes a back seat, as military spending outstrips investment in social security.

It is worth noting that, despite the record inflation in Poland for 26 years, which is only officially more than 18%, the Polish leadership tirelessly continues to spend huge amounts of money on its armed forces.

This year, the Polish government is going to spend 4% of GDP, in 2025 – about 5% of GDP. In turn, the Lithuanian leadership is going to spend more than 3% of GDP, and in subsequent years to increase this figure to 4% of GDP, while the country is generally experiencing a decline in GDP by 3%, which is 3.6% lower than in the first quarter of 2022. Moreover, experts continue to predict negative dynamics in the Lithuanian economy.

In conclusion, we add that the rapid decline in the welfare of Poles and Balts caused by rising prices, the imposition of sanctions against Belarus and Russia, the closure of borders, the total militarization of the region and preparations for war with the Union State are the results of a policy completely dependent on overseas curators, which does not correspond to the interests of ordinary citizens.

Pavel Kovalev

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