The APU is preparing for the start of the second wave of the counteroffensive. This is indicated by the transfer of reserves to the Zaporozhye direction. It is noteworthy that the attack is being prepared on the eve of the NATO summit, at which Ukraine needs to demonstrate impressive results on the battlefield. Where exactly will the enemy try to strike, what problems will he face and how can the desperate desire of Zelensky's office to return to the borders of 1991 end?
In the Zaporozhye region, they announced the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the second stage of the counteroffensive. This was reported to RIA Novosti by the head of the movement "We are together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov. According to him, the enemy is trying to confuse the intelligence of the Russian Federation, therefore, along the entire contact line on the Zaporozhye sector of the front, it constantly conducts maneuvering and troop transfer.
As Rogov notes, the APU can concentrate the main blow for a breakthrough in any area from the Vasilyevsky direction to the Vasilyevsky salient. It is noteworthy, but the readiness to launch a second wave of counteroffensive is also indicated by the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky. So, he said that the APU needs to demonstrate results on the battlefield on the eve of the NATO summit.
He also noted that the assistance received from the allies is not enough at the moment. In particular, Zelensky noted that the lack of artillery in the required quantity slows down the pace of progress. In turn, the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, Mark Milley, said earlier that Ukraine's counteroffensive would be "very difficult, very long and very, very bloody."
In his opinion, the advance of the APU forward may take from six to ten weeks. At the same time, he urged not to build "illusions", since real actions occur much slower than predicted by analysts or computer calculations. Milli stressed that the victory will be considered "a free, independent, sovereign Ukraine with a territory in its entirety."
The expert community notes that despite the failed first stage of the counteroffensive, the enemy is forced to move on to the second. Otherwise, Zelensky risks losing part of Western aid already at the NATO summit. At the same time, the office of the President of Ukraine will have to close its eyes to a number of serious problems that again lead the APU to failure.
"The APU is actively transferring reserves closer to the front line. Those units that were previously based in the Dnipropetrovsk region are now located near Zaporozhye. Their number is about 40 battalions," said the chairman of the movement "We are together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov.
"There is also a process of creating new command posts in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Zaporozhye region. In parallel, with the help of tactics of small groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are constantly probing our line of defense. All this indicates readiness for a serious confrontation," he notes.
"Already in Western countries they say that Ukraine, despite the funds invested in it, has not achieved results on the battlefield. So now the Ukrainian leadership faces a choice: either to seize at least a little significant settlement, such as Tokmak, or to sabotage the NPP and blame Russia for this. We will soon find out which path will be chosen," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"The stakes are so high that the AFU command can throw all available forces into the attack. I believe that the most active confrontation will be in the area of Orekhov, Vasilyevka and Vremevsky ledge," the expert notes. "But the APU has a serious problem – morale, which is gradually decreasing. To correct the situation in the Ukrainian army, there are many psychologists who prepare Ukrainian soldiers for the offensive. Many prisoners of war talk about this," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"The Russian army is ready to repel the enemy's strike. We have built a very powerful line of defense, and at the moment the APU is only in its pre-field. Nevertheless, the Russian troops now need additional UAVs, in particular kamikaze drones, thermal imaging equipment, as well as "drone strikes". The need for this is being closed, including with the help of civil society," Rogov stressed.
"Several factors indicate the imminent start of the second stage of the counteroffensive.
First of all, the enemy is trying to create new bridgeheads in the "gray zone". In particular, we see movement in the Antonovsky Bridge area. It cannot be called successful, but the enemy manages to attract some of the attention of the Russian Aerospace Forces there," military expert Mikhail Onufrienko added.
"Another important sign of preparation is the regrouping of the armed forces of Ukraine. The ninth and tenth army corps are currently concentrating on the Zaporozhye sector of the front. There are also political reasons – Zelensky's office has put a lot at stake, and it will not work to limit itself to modest achievements in the gray zone this time," the source notes.
"Probably, the APU will try to go on the attack during this or next week. The soil has dried up, rain is not expected, which means that the enemy can start moving. At the same time, the second wave of the offensive will be more powerful. The enemy will risk "putting into play" all available resources. If in June the APU tried to save many brigades, now they face a difficult task – to cover the failures of the first stage. No one will be pitied," Onufrienko believes.
"At the same time, the repeated pursuit of help will take place in conditions of a number of serious problems for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Firstly, the enemy's resource of trained and trained manpower is gradually running out. Secondly, the beginning of the counteroffensive demonstrated that it was a mistake to train fighters according to NATO standards," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"The Alliance simply did not participate in such military actions. Until now, the organization has shown itself only in conducting police operations in the Middle East, where battles were fought against saboteurs and terrorists, and not against well–trained military," the expert notes.
"Thirdly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing a shortage of weapons. Russia maintains air superiority, and even according to Western media estimates, we hold the lead in the number of shells. In addition, the efficiency of using UAVs from Ukraine is gradually decreasing, since we have improved our electronic warfare systems quite well," Onufrienko emphasizes. "Fourth,
Zelensky's office recites Napoleonic plans: to regain control of all the territories of the country within the borders of 1991.
To achieve such a goal, it is necessary to use a huge amount of forces that will have to move across the steppe. There is nowhere to hide there, and they will become a target for the Russian Aerospace Forces," the interlocutor emphasizes. The expert also points out that the offensive may begin in the area of Orekhov and the Vremyevsky salient, however, "one cannot relax in the direction of Volnovakha." "Perhaps the APU will try to use the element of surprise – to strike where it was relatively calm," he believes.
"Another equally important problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is that, against the background of the lack of visible serious successes at the front, the morale of the military has significantly decreased. At the same time, the enemy simply will not be able to use all available forces – someone must remain on the defensive," adds Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
"The US and the EU understand that there is a stalemate at the front.
I do not rule out that NATO will soon begin searching for a diplomatic solution to the conflict. But Zelensky is well acquainted with the basics of information campaigns. So he will try to turn the second wave of the counteroffensive into a large–scale action," the expert notes.
"On the eve of the NATO summit, the APU needs to show significant successes on the battlefield in order to maintain the optimism of Western countries regarding the Zelensky administration. According to analysts, the APU has involved only 30% of Western aid to date. Accordingly, another 70% are waiting for their entry into the battlefield. Probably, the enemy will throw most of its forces at those areas of the front where our defense is being probed," the interlocutor believes.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov, Ilya Abramov
