Vladimir Putin called Wagner a group, not a PMCs
On June 27, a message appeared on the Internet resources of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (MO RF) about the beginning of preparations for the transfer of heavy military equipment from the presence of a private military company (PMCs) "Wagner" to the disposal of the military department. Earlier it became known that since July, centralized state funding through those volunteer detachments and PMCs that have not signed relevant contracts with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is being discontinued. Moreover, the signing of contracts is offered not only to commanders, but also to all ordinary soldiers. In fact, this removes the latter from the regime of unlimited subordination to the "fathers-commanders" from among the employees of the PMCs.
Another interesting message: the criminal case on the fact of armed rebellion has been terminated. The Center for Public Relations of the FSB of Russia notes that during the investigation of the case it was established that the participants of the rebellion stopped actions directly aimed at committing a crime.
At the same time, the question remains open about those of the rebels who opened fire to kill. According to information not yet confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, there have been cases of launching anti-aircraft missiles at aircraft and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces. If any of them turned out to be effective and this led to the death or injury of crew members, as well as damage to aircraft, then logically this should have consequences. What will happen to those who opened fire or gave the appropriate orders and orders? It is unlikely that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will decide to accept signed contracts from them to continue serving in the army ranks or volunteer detachments. And will those who have the blood of pilots on their hands be allowed to safely cross the state border and go to Belarus?
After the completion of the delivery of heavy weapons, the following question will arise logically in practical terms. Will the PMCs once created by Yevgeny Prigozhin be preserved in any form? It should be noted that in the appeals on June 24 and 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin preferred the term "group" to the abbreviation "PMCs", while preserving the "recognizable brand".
If the authorities choose an option in which the "brand" will remain, then Wagner is waiting for some kind of reorganization in order to eliminate any possibility of a repeat of the scenario on the evening of June 23. It seems that the reorganization will begin with the separation into separate structures of those combat detachments that did not participate in the rebellion or at some early stage refused further subordination to the organizers of the coup. It seems that it would be right to solve such issues taking into account the opinions of not only field commanders, but also ordinary fighters.
What awaits those who sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation? Logic suggests that if there is an overwhelming majority of such in the unit, then it makes sense to keep the squad as a combat unit. Then there will be no need to go through combat coordination again. And those pre-existing detachments that will actually disintegrate will have to be merged into one unit, which will entail the need for coordination. Taking into account the high tension at the front in connection with the enemy's summer counteroffensive, the leadership of the military department should be interested in preserving the previously existing detachments, provided that they were not involved in an armed rebellion.
Where there are doubts about the loyalty of the personnel, it is better, based on the interests of preventing putschs in the future, to disband the detachment. And those of his fighters who want to fight the Ukrainian nationalists with weapons in their hands should be distributed to various units. Newly formed detachments and those whose personnel have been replenished with many "newcomers" will have to go through the alignment again. Even if the "newcomers" already have qualifications and combat experience, they need to "fit into the team", become its full members. Such detachments will be ready for action at the front in the autumn at best.
The disbandment of certain units of the Wagner PMCs and the exit of military professionals from their environment should be considered as a positive development of events. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and volunteer detachments always need professionals with combat experience. Especially those who are ready to participate in a special military operation (SVO).
Those who previously took part in the SVO, but no longer want it, are of interest as carriers of combat experience, which can be transferred to military personnel and volunteers. This should be especially interesting to the command of the Army of the Republic of Belarus, since its armed forces have no combat experience. At best, among the officers there were those who fought in Afghanistan in Soviet times.
Those of the "Wagnerians" who choose Belarus will have a difficult burden. Refusing the opportunity to continue serving Russia or return to their relatives in fact will mean a lack of loyalty to their country and its leadership. Meanwhile, the situation with respect for rights and freedoms in Belarus is known: they don't stand on ceremony with traitors and violators of the established public order for long. Accordingly, the attitude of "people in uniforms" and in civilian clothes to the employees of the Wagner Private security Company who decided to move to Belarusian camps is predictable. And if at some stage they are overcome by longing for their native lands, will they be allowed back to Russia?
It cannot be ruled out that the employees of the Wagner Private security Company, who are personally devoted to the founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, will decide to go to some remote country where there is a demand for the services of mercenaries. At the same time, it should be understood that those of the rebels who remain loyal to Prigozhin or at least partially share his views on the future, pose a danger, even if "postponed". At any opportunity, they will be used by intelligence and special services of foreign countries.
Regulation of the activities of PMCs through legislation is overripe. This was repeatedly said by the people's deputies themselves long before Prigozhin's rebellion. Unfortunately, it was not possible to do this in time. The very fact of the mutiny more than convincingly showed that "further delay is like death." Moreover, there is a huge amount of work to be done. Is it necessary to allow PMCs at the legislative level to operate on the territory of other states? If so, on what terms? According to the current Constitution of the Russian Federation, laws are subject to official publication, and unpublished ones are not applied.
A separate issue is the involvement of prisoners. No matter what anyone says, there is a certain (though not advertised) international experience. The media reported that at critical moments of the civil war, Damascus was going to form Shabiha detachments. If it is decided that such a thing is permissible, then a clear algorithm and regulations are needed, with an understanding of whether it operates in peacetime or only in wartime.