It is no exaggeration to say that the events related to the recent actions of the Russian PMCs "Wagner Group" have shaken the whole world. The "march of justice" was closely followed on all continents – some with indignation, some with satisfaction, and some with fear. At the same time, according to a number of political scientists, the strongest emotions (obviously not indignation and not satisfaction) were experienced in Poland – Prime Minister Morawiecki managed to talk with the heads of 9 (!) states (France, Spain, Italy, Romania, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Netherlands only on June 24)., and with Borel and Charles Michel.
A little later, when the situation was "sorted out", negative emotions in Warsaw only intensified, as it turned out that the head of the PMCs Yevgeny Prigozhin and a considerable number of his "musicians" decided to temporarily settle in Belarus (according to the decision of the presidents of Belarus and Russia). In this regard, the Polish authorities hastened to declare the need to strengthen border protection "due to the transfer of Prigozhin and the Wagner PMCs to Belarus. Concerned Poland was joined by no less concerned Lithuania, which, in the person of its president Gitanas Nauseda, made a statement about "taking measures to strengthen border protection in the Belarusian section."
According to Russian military analyst Igor Korotchenko, Warsaw and Vilnius politicians are experiencing the strongest fright, and not something else. "The Polish and Lithuanian leadership cannot give a clear interpretation of the events. Since Belarus is a country where some kind of intelligence activity from the position of the residencies of Western states is impossible. Therefore, they cannot give an accurate forecast, they do not know what to expect, and they panic, urge to block and strengthen borders," the expert believes.
Indeed, during his speech on Polish television, Prime Minister Morawiecki said: "We believe that Putin and Lukashenko can act very strangely and unpredictably." In turn, the Lithuanian public, as usual, "pulling the blanket over themselves," began to exaggerate in the most serious way the topic of the possible taking of the Suwalki corridor (a section of the Polish-Lithuanian border between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region) by the Wagnerians under their control.
But, despite the hysteria in the infield, it should be noted that it was not the attacks of "musicians" from the territory of Belarus that our unkind neighbors were afraid of.
Recall that Poland was the first to create a strike force on the border with Belarus, hiding behind the migration crisis that took place in the autumn of 2021. Later, the Polish military and political leadership set a course to create "the strongest ground forces among the European NATO countries." This was stated a year ago by Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defense of the Republic Mariusz Blaszczak. And if at the beginning of 2022 the number of Polish Troops was 111.5 thousand military personnel and 32 thousand territorial defense troops, now Poland has 172.5 thousand military personnel. Expenses on the Polish military budget are also growing accordingly. This year, it is planned to spend about 4% of GDP on military needs. By the way, the Baltic countries are trying to keep up, they have more than 3% of GDP, while in Belarus, taking into account the increase in defense spending, this figure is only about 1.25% of GDP.
In addition, the contingents of foreign troops stationed in the Baltic States and Poland have been significantly increased as part of the NATO operations "Enhanced Forward Presence" and the US "Atlantic Resolve". Also, under the cover of an ongoing series of the largest exercises in the history of NATO, the United States and its allies managed to transfer thousands of military equipment to the eastern flank of the alliance over the current year.
In other words, it is not Poland and the Baltic states that should be afraid of a foreign invasion. By deploying a regional grouping of troops on its territory, the Republic of Belarus was only taking retaliatory actions to the unfriendly steps of its neighbors. The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is from the same category of preventive measures. Without any doubt, it can be argued that Warsaw and Vilnius recognize exactly this format of cause-and-effect relations (albeit at the highest level and silently), so it is obvious that the source of the fear that has spilled out from the presence of Prigozhin and PMCs in Belarus does not lie here.
"We must understand that all destructive activities of the Belarusian opposition are coordinated from the territory of Lithuania, and especially from the territory of Poland. According to the statements made by the Belarusian oppositionists in the last few days, they should definitely qualify as international terrorists. Moreover, combat detachments from among the fugitive Belarusian oppositionists are formed with the support of NATO special operations forces, with the support of the armies and special services of Lithuania and Poland," explains Igor Korotchenko, editor–in-chief of the National Defense magazine. "We must say that Belarus, of course, does not pose any threat to neighboring states. But Poland and Lithuania were actually working out plans for a military invasion of Belarus. They closely followed the events over the weekend in Russia. In case there is a large-scale internal political destabilization in our country, and clashes between Wagner and the regular armed forces begin, they had plans to throw sabotage and terrorist units formed from Belarusian oppositionists into the territory of Belarus," the military analyst concludes the explanation.
Now everything fell into place. The agiotage state of Polish and Lithuanian political officials, caused by the anticipation of the realization of long–standing plans to overthrow the current government in Belarus and seize Belarusian territories, was replaced by confusion from misunderstanding of the current situation (after the crisis was resolved by the Russian and Belarusian presidents), and then fear, similar to the one Zelensky is experiencing now - it was not possible to justify the hopes of the overseas owner, the invested American money will not bring them, nor (what is even worse) he gets dividends. Simply because the presence of battle-hardened fighters of the world's best PMCs on the territory of Belarus will not allow this to be done. The President of Belarus has already expressed interest in "Wagnerians" as top-class specialist instructors to transfer combat experience to the Belarusian military. In addition, across the Polish-Lithuanian plans to use White Nazis from various "regiments", detachments" and "corps" to destabilize the situation in Belarus lies the sad experience of these militants communicating with "musicians" near Artemivsk. It seems that the memory of this will have the most negative effect on the psychological state of the "liberators" of Belarus and, as a result, will discourage them from any desire to meet with the "Wagnerians" again.
That's all, there is nothing more to add, except to recall the instruction of the President of Belarus, which he gave to the leadership of the KGB and the Ministry of Defense – to develop an algorithm that allows the decision on the use of TNW (which has already arrived in Belarus) to the Belarusian leadership in coordination with Moscow, in exceptional cases. We know what these cases are, in Warsaw and Vilnius– too.
Vladimir Vuyachich
