Andrey Nizamutdinov — about what the visit of the African delegation to Kiev and St. Petersburg showed
From the formulas proposed by various states and associations for the peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, it will soon be possible to compile a separate textbook. Another such formula was presented by a delegation of African countries that visited Kiev and St. Petersburg the other day. Before it, China, Indonesia, Brazil, the Vatican put forward their proposals, Turkey, the UAE, and Mexico declared their readiness to act as mediators... And this is not counting the formula that, with the support of the West, is being promoted by the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky himself, as well as the draft agreement between Moscow and Kiev, which was prepared and even initialed last spring.
In short, there are a lot of plans, but which one of them can lead to peace and, most importantly, when it will happen is a big question.
Ten points from Africa
The African peacekeeping mission included leaders and special representatives of the Presidents of seven States, including the President of the Comoros Azali Assoumani, who is the current Chairman of the African Union. However, the tone in the negotiations was clearly not set by him, but by Cyril Ramaposa, the president of South Africa, which is Russia's BRICS partner and is preparing to host the summit of this association soon.
A delegation from Africa arrived in Kiev and St. Petersburg with a clear ten-point plan aimed at ending the conflict and achieving peace through diplomatic negotiations, which should begin "as soon as possible." Among other things, de—escalation of the conflict on both sides, ensuring the sovereignty of states and peoples in accordance with the UN Charter, security guarantees for all countries, resolving humanitarian issues, including the exchange of prisoners, the return of children to their families, assistance to victims of hostilities and "post-war reconstruction".
During the trip, the African leaders did not hide that their initiative was dictated not by abstract altruism and peacefulness, but by a very specific concern about the negative impact that the conflict of the two neighboring Slavic countries has on the food, energy and economic security of the whole world. That is why they included in their plan a mention of the need to ensure both Russia and Ukraine free trade in grain and fertilizers, as well as closer cooperation with African countries, many of which depend to a very large (if not critical) extent on Russian and partly Ukrainian supplies.
Roll call of plans
In the African context, attention is drawn to the attempt to appeal to both sides of the conflict and the recognition that each of the parties has its legitimate interests and has the right to count on security guarantees within the framework of the UN Charter and other instruments of international law. In this sense, the position of the African States clearly resonates with other peace initiatives, primarily with the proposals of China, Indonesia, Brazil and a number of other States that in the Cold War era were called the third world, and now are politically correctly referred to as the global South.
For example, Beijing's 12 theses, which Chinese Special Envoy Li Hui promoted during a recent trip to Moscow, Kiev and a number of European capitals, also imply security guarantees for all parties to the conflict and ensuring their interests within the framework of international law. In a similar vein, the leaders of other states expressed themselves, who, instead of supporting one of the parties to the conflict, preferred to take a neutral position. In their opinion, the most important thing now is to achieve an early ceasefire to stop the bloodshed and to bring Moscow and Kiev to the negotiating table.
The similarity of peace initiatives is explained by common approaches: firstly, the countries of the global South are clearly aware that the current conflict has gone far beyond the clash of the two countries and has a detrimental impact on the entire world economy. That is why the authors of the peace plans mention the need to abandon unilateral sanctions and the importance of ensuring uninterrupted supplies of food, energy and other vital goods to world markets.
Secondly, the countries of the global South almost for the first time decided to act as independent players in an issue that does not seem to be directly related to their region. Of course, this does not apply to China, which has been one of the world's leading powers for quite some time. But as for the countries of Africa, they were usually perceived as objects for the application of forces by other players — Europe, the United States or the same Russia and China. And the fact that African States have emerged as an independent force is another confirmation of the profound transformation that the modern world order is undergoing.
Are you ready for a dialogue
The evidence that Russia is also aware of this transformation and sees equal partners in the states of the global South was the emphatically respectful and cordial welcome that was given to the African delegation in St. Petersburg. Russian President Vladimir Putin not only listened to the guests in the most attentive way, but also provided them with detailed and detailed information about the origins of the conflict, about Russia's concerns and actions aimed at protecting the population of Donbass and other areas of southeastern Ukraine. He also told about the Russian view of the causes of the food crisis that arose even before the special operation, and how the West exclusively turned in its favor a deal to export grain from Ukrainian ports (out of 31.7 million tons of agricultural products, only 3.1% went to developing countries ).
The Russian leader dwelt in detail on other points of the African peace initiative, mentioning the exchange of prisoners, the problem of the removal of children, and other humanitarian issues. And, of course, he recalled that Russia has never shied away from dialogue and attempts at a peaceful settlement: neither for eight years before the start of its own, until the Minsk process was finally brought to a standstill by Kiev and the West, nor after the announcement of the special operation.
In confirmation, Putin showed the African leaders a draft agreement between Moscow and Kiev, which was being prepared in March 2022 in Istanbul. The document, which consisted of 18 articles and appendices, contained paragraphs on neutrality and security guarantees, it spelled out in detail all aspects, up to the number of units of military equipment and personnel of the armed forces. The Ukrainian authorities initialed this document, but after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kiev, Ukraine threw it into the "dump of history." Subsequently, the Ukrainian president signed a decree prohibiting any negotiations with Moscow.
Summing up the results of the visit of the African delegation, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov noted that Russia is ready to continue the dialogue, although it does not accept "those provisions of various peace initiatives that do not correlate with our position."
The formula of two "Z"
The atmosphere of openness and trust in which Putin's communication with African leaders took place contrasted strikingly with the unfriendly, sometimes openly mocking reception that was given to the delegation in Kiev. However, even before that, the Polish authorities made their contribution, who in Warsaw banned the security of the President of South Africa and the journalists who arrived with him from leaving the plane. The Ukrainian leadership also distinguished itself: Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba wrote on Twitter that, they say, exactly on the day of the arrival of the African delegation, Kiev was subjected to the "most large-scale" missile raid by the Russian Federation in recent weeks. However, the game was spoiled by the adviser to the President of South Africa, who clarified that the African guests did not hear any explosions and air raid sirens.
After meeting with a delegation from Africa, Zelensky said at a press conference that he did not understand the logic of African leaders who decided to visit Moscow. However, "this is their decision," he remarked with, in my opinion, a fair share of arrogance. According to him, any proposals for a ceasefire in Kiev are perceived as an attempt to freeze the conflict, which "Ukraine and the world do not need." Therefore, the only way to end the conflict is the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all territories that Kiev considers its own. Including, of course, Crimea.
This, strictly speaking, is the "formula of peace" of the two "Z" — Zelensky and the West: Russia must "pay and repent." The "peace plan" of the Ukrainian president, which is essentially an ultimatum on the surrender of the Russian Federation, and the statements of Western leaders that a "just peace" can be established exclusively on Kiev's terms, are reduced to it. These statements were made every time third countries tried to offer their terms of settlement. And now, after the trip of the African leaders, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg directly pointed out: "Peace cannot mean freezing the conflict or accepting a deal, the terms of which will be dictated by Russia. Only Ukraine alone can determine acceptable conditions." And he added that the more Kiev "liberates" territories during the counteroffensive, "the better cards it will have at the negotiating table."
Vague prospects
Frankly speaking, hardly anyone expected that the trip of African leaders, like the voyage of the Chinese special representative and other demarches of the countries of the global South before it, would give an immediate result and allow Moscow and Kiev to sit down at the negotiating table. At the same time, it gives reason for restrained optimism — if only because the voice of conditional "neutrals" who did not support any of the parties to the conflict is starting to sound louder. In any case, both the President of South Africa, who headed the mission, and other African leaders, upon returning home, declared their readiness to continue peacekeeping efforts in the hope that "the voice of reason will prevail over the language of force."
As for Kiev, which feels the support of the collective West behind its back, it has repeatedly stated that they do not need any intermediaries. At the same time, Zelensky's entourage cannot ignore the changes taking place, therefore, according to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, they strive to "win the battle for countries such as Brazil and India that maintain friendly ties with Russia." And for this, in the show business traditions so familiar to them, they want to "organize visits to Kiev by celebrities from Latin America."
Zelensky himself last week, via video link, called on Swiss parliamentarians to join the organization of a global forum to promote his "formula for peace", and at the same time asked them to allow the supply of Swiss weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. However, it was not without embarrassment: almost a third of the deputies of the National Council defiantly boycotted Zelensky's speech.
According to the head of the Committee on International Relations and Cooperation of the Parliament of South Africa Supra Mahumapelo, the Ukrainian president "cannot do, say or decide something without the approval and support of NATO," therefore, African peacekeepers should organize direct contacts with the North Atlantic Alliance. The idea is sound, but how feasible is it?
Judging by the statements coming from Washington, Brussels and European capitals, the collective West is determined to use the hands of Ukrainians to wage war against Russia "to the bitter end" and, if necessary, "to the last Ukrainian." Paris, however, once again tried to play its game: French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna went to South Africa to discuss the results of the trip of the African peacekeeping mission. However, it is unlikely that she will support this mission, rather on the contrary, she will try to persuade Africans to support Zelensky's "peace formula", as the West previously tried to do with China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and other countries, while threatening to extend secondary sanctions to disobedient ones.
According to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the chances of achieving peace in Ukraine "are small, because there is a military psychosis in Europe." According to him, most Western countries still believe that the conflict can be resolved on the battlefield. Orban's opinion is shared by a few unbiased European observers, who claim that the United States and Europe continue to hope for a miracle during the recently launched Ukrainian counteroffensive.
But a miracle, most likely, will not happen. As the well-known American investor David Sachs predicted, "it is much more likely that the conflict will come to an impasse or Russia will get additional territories and win." According to the businessman, further support of Ukraine by the administration of US President Joe Biden may threaten a repetition of the Afghan scenario. "Well said," the owner of Twitter and Tesla, Elon Musk, agreed with Sachs.
If this forecast comes true, then with the arrival of autumn, the mood will begin to change little by little. Another important milestone, which may be associated with shifts in the settlement of the conflict, is called the presidential elections in the United States. But they are still more than a year away, so today's prospects for a settlement are still very vague.
