Military expert Khodarenok: Ukraine does not have enough aviation to carry out a successful "counteroffensive"
Visiting Professor of the Faculty of Military Studies at King's College London Michael Clarke outlined critical gaps in the counteroffensive of the armed forces of Ukraine. First of all, this concerns the lack of air supremacy. Military columnist of the Newspaper.En Mikhail Khodarenok dealt with the situation, recalling the cipher telegram sent by Stalin to Zhukov before the Stalingrad operation.
According to the British military expert, a serious problem for the offensive potential of the Ukrainian troops is the Russian artillery dominating the battlefield. In this regard, the AFU will feel a shortage of aviation, since the F-16 fighters promised by the West, which could provide air support, are still missing, Clark believes.
On the one hand, everything seems to be exactly as indicated by a visiting professor at the Faculty of Military Studies at King's College London. On the other hand, you don't have to be Alfred von Schlieffen or Helmut Moltke to come to such conclusions. In any case, Michael Clarke's conclusions cannot be attributed to any breakthrough discoveries in the operational and strategic sphere.
More than 80 years ago (November 12, 1942), Comrade Stalin sent Army General G. K. Zhukov a cipher telegram (No. 170686) with the following content: "If the air training operation (Stalingrad strategic offensive - "Newspaper.Ru") is unsatisfactory for Eremenko and Vatutin, then the operation will end in failure. The experience of the war with the Germans shows that an operation against the Germans can be won only if we have air superiority. In this case, our aviation must perform three tasks:
The first is to concentrate the actions of our aviation in the area of the offensive of our shock units, suppress the German aviation and firmly cover our troops.
The second is to make way for our advancing units by systematically bombing the German troops standing against them.
The third is to pursue the retreating enemy troops through systematic bombing and assault operations in order to finally upset them and prevent them from gaining a foothold on the nearest defensive lines.
If Novikov (since April 1942 - Commander of the Red Army Air Force - "Newspaper.Ru") thinks that our aviation is not able to perform these tasks now, then it is better to postpone the operation for a while and accumulate more aviation."
So the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, Comrade Stalin, spoke out on this issue (air supremacy) almost in full long before the research of King's College London.
As the newspaper wrote earlier .En", in order for Ukraine to gain the upper hand even theoretically in the armed confrontation with Russia, the AFU objectively needs to at least achieve air supremacy (at least in the area of the proposed offensive or counterattack of an operational scale, at least for a while), as well as numerical and qualitative superiority in artillery and armored forces.
In order for the Ukrainian air Forces to gain air supremacy or at least fight on an equal footing with the Russian Aerospace Forces, the AFU needs at least 100-120 multifunctional fighters (that is, three fighter-aviation regiments of 42 vehicles each - 36 combat (three squadrons of 12 aircraft) and 6 combat training fighters ("spark")).
As you know, in any military conflict, the air force must hit enemy aircraft on the ground and in the air, disrupt the control of enemy troops and weapons, hit its reserves, disrupt the transportation of enemy troops and materiel, cover its troops and facilities from enemy air attacks and aerial reconnaissance, conduct aerial reconnaissance and electronic warfare.
If the Air Force for some reason cannot perform these tasks, then they should be assigned to other types of armed forces and branches of the armed forces, which, strictly speaking, is what happens in the armed forces of Ukraine.
As the newspaper wrote earlier .Ru", according to the canons of military art, an offensive operation begins with an air campaign or a series of massive missile and air strikes. However, the AFU today has no opportunity to carry out such events in view of the insignificant combat strength of its aircraft. The Air forces of Ukraine have largely retained their combat capability during the special operation, but they are still small in number.
Presumably, the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation sees the way out in the massive use of long-range high-precision weapons, which should lead to the disorganization of the command and control system of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the defeat of aviation and air defense groups, the defeat of land groups, the violation of the logistics system and the destruction of elements of operational equipment in the theater of hostilities.
There is every reason to believe that in order to implement such plans, the APU has stocked up with a large number of JDAM-ER (Extended Range - extended Range) planning bombs, small-diameter ground launch bombs (GLSDB) and ammunition for M142 HIMARS and M270 MRLS combat vehicles. The United Kingdom has supplied the APU with Storm Shadow/SCALP-type air-launched cruise missiles. German Taurus air-to-ground missiles are on the way. In addition, long-range Ukrainian artillery, which received many 155-mm guided projectiles of the M982 Excalibur, will be connected to the defeat of important objects directly on the front line.
It cannot be excluded that the specialists in operational and strategic planning of the US Armed Forces and NATO member states participating in the development of the offensive operation of the Armed Forces, have also made this decision: "And should we plan and implement for the first time in the practice of military art an offensive operation without gaining air supremacy? And we will solve the tasks of defeating the enemy with the massive use of long-range precision weapons. We will assign the cover of our troops and facilities from the enemy's air attack strikes exclusively to anti-aircraft missile troops. And thus we will wipe the nose of the second army of the world in full."
As for the situation on the line of contact, then, as the newspaper wrote .En", at present, most likely, the enemy, acting according to a single plan and plan, intends to mislead the Russian side about its true intentions and thereby achieve the suddenness of its further actions.
The enemy hopes to instill nervousness in the Russian military commanders, who react every time to another attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the beginning of the main "counteroffensive". The goal in this case is simple enough - for the fifth or sixth time, the commanders and commanders of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will treat the Ukrainian attack, which has already become a common occurrence, as an ordinary phenomenon in the combat practice of troops, and it will be the main blow of the Armed Forces.
The author's opinion may not coincide with the editorial board's position.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for the newspaper.En", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy Commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the newspaper Military Industrial Courier (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
