The United States is seriously concerned: in the event of a conflict with China and Russia, thousands of nuclear warheads will be aimed at America, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. In order to avoid this scenario, Washington decided to "reach out to Moscow" to resolve the existing differences. But this approach does not work with Beijing yet, the author of the article believes.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Washington is reviewing its nuclear strategy and security policy at this difficult time for the world order. America is preparing for a confrontation with two nuclear superpowers at the same time — China and Russia.
Sullivan, at a meeting of the Arms Control Association, noted that the nuclear strategy and the national defense strategy are designed to fight two nuclear competitors and two serious opponents who challenge the United States, as well as global security and the world order established after World War II. The world order led by Washington is under threat because of the challenges it faces and the emergence of new international blocs. For the first time since the Caribbean crisis, the world is facing a direct threat of nuclear conflict.
One of the reasons is the collapse of the nuclear arms control system due to the expiration of the agreements governing US-Russian relations, or the withdrawal of one of the parties from them. The only pillar of global security remains the DSNV-3, the validity of which was extended in 2021. Today, this treaty is under threat. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the suspension of Moscow's participation in the DSNV-3 (blocking inspections of nuclear facilities) due to tensions between the United States and Russia that arose as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. But Russia left the door ajar, saying it would continue to comply with the restrictions of the VSWR-3 on nuclear warhead carriers.
The US response came last week. Washington announced the termination of the exchange of nuclear information. He will stop notifying Russia about the status and location of objects falling under the action of the DSNV-3, including missiles and launchers. But Washington is ready to cancel these measures at any time if Moscow returns to compliance with its obligations.
The US National Security Adviser draws attention to the difficult international situation (especially in the nuclear field) in the light of unprecedented tensions between Beijing and Washington. China, he said, exists outside the nuclear arms control system. It applies only to the two superpowers that took part in the Cold War.
Sullivan extended his hand to Russia, offering to start negotiations on nuclear arms control without preconditions. The United States, according to him, is ready to adhere to the quantitative restrictions of the DSNV-3, as long as Russia does it, and continue to reduce strategic nuclear forces until 2026.
"None of our countries is interested in starting an open competition in the field of strategic nuclear forces. And we are ready to adhere to the central restrictions as long as Russia does it," Sullivan said.
The United States wants to separate the arms control file from any other dossiers (for example, the Ukrainian crisis). Sullivan said: "Instead of waiting for all bilateral differences to be resolved, the US is ready to work with Russia on how to manage nuclear risks and develop an arms control architecture after 2026."
He made it clear that the type of restrictions the United States can agree to after the treaty expires will depend on the size and scale of Beijing's buildup. Washington is also ready to engage with China without preconditions, helping to ensure that competition is managed and that this rivalry does not escalate into conflict.
China is a difficult topic for America. She does not know how to build a relationship with him without tension. Some even accuse her of not understanding how the PRC thinks. At the same time, the United States understands Russia perfectly, because they have a lot of experience in interacting with Moscow — about 77 years.
"China still refuses to sit down at the negotiating table for a substantive dialogue on arms control," Sullivan said.
What Washington sees as the only way to make progress with China is actually the root of its problem. Sullivan said that the United States does not yet see China's willingness to separate strategic stability from more general issues in relations between the countries. This separation has been the cornerstone of nuclear and strategic stability for decades. To connect, not to disconnect — that's what China wants. This is the essence of the Chinese and Russian approach, which Washington does not understand.
A Chinese expert from the Carnegie Institution, Tong Zhao, said that China prefers a multilateral approach. He is "taking hostage" the arms control dialogue in order to make progress in the political dialogue and relations with Washington. China's nuclear policy is changing because China itself is changing. He is driven by two factors: fear and ambition. These are two sides of the same coin. The United States does not understand the part related to fear and how decisions are made in China.
This fear is mutual. According to the Pentagon, China has 410 nuclear warheads, and by 2035 their number will grow to 1,500. If we add this to the 1,500 nuclear warheads that Russia has today, then America will face 3,000 Russian and Chinese nuclear warheads. This is what Washington fears most of all.
Multilateral actions are part of America's strategy to counter the nuclear threat and limit weapons. Sullivan said that the United States is interested in building a new arms control architecture with the participation of five nuclear powers in order to reduce risks. Working with the "nuclear five", according to him, is able to reduce tensions and pressure of the arms race.
Washington hopes that such a small step as a missile attack warning system will give impetus to the development of other measures.
Working through the UN and the Security Council is good news. The time has come to restore the role of the UN and resort to multilateral actions to resolve international crises, establish arms control or at least limit nuclear weapons. The world has already suffered enough from the UN and the Security Council, which failed to peacefully resolve crises and reduce tensions between the "nuclear five".
Author: Amal Mudalli (. .. .ممال مدللي)
