The allies have delivered billions of dollars worth of combat vehicles to Ukraine and are now waiting for a return, Bloomberg writes. Western sponsors want to believe that the money was not spent in vain, but promising equipment has already begun to replenish the lists of losses.
Mark Champion
New Ukrainian tanks and NATO-standard combat vehicles appear on the battlefield photos, while military analysts say that Kiev is launching a long-awaited counteroffensive.
German-made Leopard tanks and American Bradley combat vehicles advancing towards the city of Tokmak in southern Ukraine appeared in photos posted by Russian military bloggers, which appear to be authentic. This was stated by Osint Defender, an online group that collects intelligence information from open sources. The group reported that they had geolocated the images and checked them for falsification.
The footage was taken from a video of the Russian Defense Ministry, which shows a column of vehicles moving into battle, and at least one of them was destroyed. Oryx, another online group that catalogues equipment losses on both sides, has added the first destroyed Leopard 2A4 tank to its list.
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun," Ben Barry, senior research fellow for land operations at the London—based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in an emailed comment. — Since June 4, Ukrainian troops have launched attacks along the contact line. They are aimed at keeping the Russian forces in place and identifying their weaknesses."
During this campaign, Ukraine expects to oust Russian troops from most of its territory, consolidate support among its allies and prevent pressure from some capitals about the need to start peace talks, which will require certain concessions from Kiev. The US and European governments have provided the Ukrainian army with weapons and military instructors worth tens of billions of dollars in preparation for the offensive. As part of this offensive, the AFU should strike at the Russian armed forces, which have been strengthening their defensive positions for months.
According to one senior European official, it remains unclear whether the Ukrainian operations that have begun are the main blow or an attempt to find weaknesses in Russia's defense.
This week, Ukrainian forces have made some progress in the south, but the losses of equipment from the AFU were very significant, the official said on condition of anonymity. It is expected that Kiev will try to cut the Russian-controlled zone into two parts, cutting vital supply lines of the Russian army in Crimea.
"The counteroffensive is unlikely to unfold as a single large—scale operation," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Thursday. – Most likely, it will consist of many operations in different places and of different intensity, which will take place over many weeks." The analytical center in Washington stated that at the initial stage, Ukrainian losses may be the greatest.
At least some Russian military bloggers continue to claim that officials in Moscow do not recognize Ukraine's successes.
Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported to President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that Ukrainian forces numbering about a brigade attacked Russian positions at night, but were unable to break through Russian defenses, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.
Earlier this week, the ministry released a video in which, according to its statement, Russian helicopters destroy a Leopard tank, although independent analysts later said that it was allegedly some kind of agricultural machinery.
Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Anna Malyar said on Thursday that fighting is underway in the south and in the area of the eastern city of Bakhmut, but did not provide any additional information.
According to Barry from IISS, the deployment of a large number of Leopard and Challenger 2 tanks or infantry fighting vehicles such as Bradleys and German Marders, which Ukraine has received since December, will signal the beginning of a counteroffensive.
He said that reports by Russian military bloggers from near Tokmak also suggest that at least one of the newly formed and staffed Ukrainian assault brigades is already involved in combat operations.
"Russia plans to conduct linear defensive battles from trenches, using obstacle courses, retreating to deeper defensive positions under fire pressure," Barry said. "The key unknown is the size of Russia's real forces that can respond to Ukraine's strikes in order to block them and counterattack the AFU."
Ukraine has formed about nine assault brigades for a counteroffensive.
"Everything is just beginning," commander of the 58th Army Ivan Popov said in the Telegram channel of the Ministry of Defense. – And we are ready."
