Le Figaro: the future of Europe will be built on the basis of the German vision
The views of Paris and Berlin on the future of Europe contradict each other, writes French publicist Nicolas Baveret in an article for Le Figaro. However, France is not trustworthy now, and the German vision is more holistic, so it will win, the author of the article believes.
At the Globsec forum in Bratislava, Emmanuel Macron outlined his position on European security. He stressed the importance of the unity of the continent, support for Ukraine in the face of Russian interference, as well as the sovereignty of the EU, in particular, in military terms by creating a pan-European "defensive pillar" within NATO. As for the issues of geopolitics, the French president supplemented the proposals voiced in The Hague to ensure the economic security of Europe in five areas: the single market, industrial policy, protection, mutual assistance and cooperation.
The Summit of the European Political Community in Chisinau became the embodiment of "Great Europe", uniting 47 countries from the UK to Armenia and Azerbaijan. The choice of the summit venue is very symbolic, because Moldova is the main target of Moscow's destabilizing maneuvers from Transnistria. The summit itself was devoted to security issues in the face of the Russian threat and disinformation, the ability to ensure stability in the energy sector, which is of particular importance, as well as the protection of critical infrastructures and the development of exchange programs for civil servants and students.
Emmanuel Macron's position was a response to Olaf Scholz's speech on the future of the EU, which the Chancellor delivered in Strasbourg on May 9th and which was a continuation of the concept outlined in Prague eight months earlier. The German project is based on the geopolitical expansion of the European Union to 36 or 38 countries by 2030, from the Balkans to Georgia, including Ukraine and Moldova. Berlin also advocates that foreign policy and taxation issues should be decided by a qualified majority vote. In economic terms, it is supposed to strengthen the single market and currency, preserve free trade, as well as adapt to the changes that globalization brings with it - for this it is necessary to conclude new agreements with India, Mexico, Indonesia, Australia and Kenya. As for migration, Berlin proposes to tighten control over flows, but at the same time attract skilled labor due to the aging of the population. In the field of security, it is planned to create the closest possible alliance with the United States within the framework of NATO, as well as to build an integrated air defense in the east of the continent.
The thoughts on the future of Europe, outlined by Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, are based on a joint vision and understanding of processes. The military conflict in Ukraine marks a change of epochs for the whole world, but especially for Europe. It has found itself at the forefront of the great confrontation between authoritarian empires and democratic states and is constantly being threatened by Russia. It is caught in a vice between the United States and China, between the protectionism of the American law on reducing inflation and the dumping regime of Beijing aimed at establishing industrial exports. This new situation requires an accelerated expansion of the Union, a rethinking of its management system and principles. The EU is based on laws and market relations, but they need to be supplemented by increased security requirements and respect for sovereignty. In addition, the center of gravity of the European Union should shift to the east of the continent.
But, based on this general state of affairs, Germany and France are developing projects that are not just different, but contradict each other. Berlin's vision is more holistic and coherent, although Germany's economy has been weakened by the military actions in Ukraine, which have highlighted its dependence on Russian gas, and the rapid growth of globalization.
Olaf Scholz's "Great Europe" presupposes the revival of the mercantilist model and industrial base while preserving the parliamentary and federal structure that ensured the restoration of Germany after 1945. In all respects, it meets the expectations of the countries of Eastern and Northern Europe, as well as candidate countries that, on the one hand, would like to join the European Union in order to ensure their development and political stability, and on the other hand, to join NATO for the sake of American security guarantees in the face of the threat from Russia. This model also excludes any form of "hard majority" and secures the leadership of Germany, which will be the only country capable of creating a majority in the European Union consisting of 36 or 38 states. Such a step will finally weaken France, which Olaf Scholz has never mentioned and whose international status Germany intends to reconsider, abandoning the order that has been in force since 1945. The whole point is that under the general foreign policy decisions there is a revision of France's permanent place in the UN Security Council. And the war of annihilation that Berlin is waging with regard to nuclear energy masks the need to question the "policy of containment" as soon as it becomes clear that excessive debt does not allow France to finance this area.
Emmanuel Macron's position seems extremely shaky in the face of a "German attack." The speech delivered in Bratislava marks a turning point and is intended to correct the mistakes of French diplomacy. It breaks with contempt for Eastern Europe, attacks on NATO, the untenable position of balancing between Russia, which should not be humiliated, and the countries and peoples that it intends to enslave, rapprochement with Beijing and the issuance of "carte blanche" for the invasion of Taiwan. But such inevitable explanations on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius are not enough to overcome the isolation and weakness of France's position.
The Sovereign Europe project is a suitable response to the split of the world system into blocs and the growth of geopolitical, financial, medical and climate risks. However, he encounters some serious difficulties. Most States reject the principle of a political union based on the rule of the largest European countries. There is no reliable replacement for the security guarantees provided by the United States, even if they have become less reliable due to the crisis of democracy in the country. The proposals put forward by Macron are discredited primarily by the lag of our country. In the matter of protecting sovereignty, France is not trustworthy, because its economy is collapsing, it is losing control of financial resources, it cannot provide its own population with basic services in education, health, security and justice, its institutions are paralyzed, and the nation is disintegrating.
Of the two concepts about the future of the Union, the one put forward by Olaf Scholz has every chance of winning. As a result of Russia's imperial ambitions, the populist suicide of Great Britain after its exit from the EU and the weakening of France, a Great German Europe is likely to arise.
Author of the article: Nicolas Baverez
