From military-technical cooperation to military-political cooperation
Russian-Chinese relations are characterized by a desire for cooperation. Another important factor that unites Russia and China is the complementarity of their economies. In the long term, China needs ever-increasing amounts of energy from Siberia and the Far East, as well as technologies, especially military ones. Russia is interested in exporting energy resources to China and through it to other countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The Russian Federation also aims to buy the industrial goods we need in China.
THE STATE OF THE RELATIONSHIP
Beijing pays serious attention to the development of bilateral cooperation in the most important areas for itself: aircraft construction, space industry, nuclear energy, new materials and nanotechnology.
On the whole, the situation is not bad with the cooperation in the military-technical sphere that began back in 1991. According to consolidated estimates, over the past 20 years, China has purchased about $30 billion worth of arms and military equipment from Russia, becoming a strategic partner for our country in terms of military-technical cooperation (MTC).
Among the last major contracts for the supply of Russian military hardware to China is an agreement for the supply of 24 newest Su–35 fighters of the 4++ generation, previously used only by the Russian Military Space Forces (concluded in the fall of 2015, the issue price is $ 2 billion). As well as a contract for the supply of four divisions of the S-400 Triumph air defense system (concluded in the fall of 2014, the cost is about $ 1.9 billion).
The long negotiations were connected with the desire of the Russian side to limit the risks to its intellectual property rights, with careful coordination of the terms of agreements and, in the case of the S-400, apparently, with the loading of Russian production facilities, which did not allow the production of these complexes faster.
Russia continues to be the most important supplier of aircraft engines to China. At the end of 2016, the Russian United Aircraft Engine Corporation signed a contract for the supply of D-30 and AL-31F engines worth up to $ 1 billion. Without these engines, it would be impossible to implement the rearmament program of the Chinese Air Force.
A characteristic feature of the organization of military-technical cooperation with Russia at the present stage is China's desire to gradually abandon the procurement of large quantities of Russian military-industrial equipment. And move to closer scientific, technical, industrial and technological cooperation in the interests of developing promising models of military-industrial equipment, the creation of which Beijing faces the greatest difficulties (air defense and missile defense (air defense and missile defense), non-nuclear submarines).
Joint practical work is already underway on a number of new projects related to armament technologies of the naval forces, ground forces, communication systems, navigation and radar, aircraft engine building, etc.
IN THE FACE OF WESTERN SANCTIONS
It is impossible not to note today the new role of China in military-technical cooperation with Russia. Thus, after the introduction of Western sanctions, it was thanks to the PRC that it was possible to maintain the pace of implementation of a number of programs in the interests of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
In particular, in the case of small rocket ships, a replacement for German diesel engines manufactured by MTU was found in the form of Chinese analogues. Probably, there is a purchase of other Chinese components – analogues of Western products. But this is an extremely sensitive issue – primarily due to the Western sanctions themselves, which can be extended to Chinese counterparties.
At the same time, cooperation between Russia and China in the defense sphere is developing not only through the import and export of military products. Such mechanisms of military relations as annual meetings of defense ministers and chiefs of general staffs, command and staff negotiations of various specialized commissions, as well as exercises of the armed forces are effective.
In general, it seems that the approaches of the Chinese leadership to the development of cooperation with Russia in the military and military-technical spheres are determined primarily by pragmatic considerations. Which allow Beijing to successfully solve not only the tasks of increasing the PLA's combat capabilities and modernizing its military-industrial complex, but also to demonstrate to its likely opponents, primarily the United States and Japan, the achieved level of strategic relations with such a militarily strong and influential state as the Russian Federation.
Practice has shown that even in the conditions of a special military operation (SVO) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in 2022 on the territory of Ukraine, the joint action plan of Russia and China has been fully implemented.
THE IMPACT OF THE UKRAINIAN CONFLICT
The high level of interaction is reflected in the demonstration of the PRC's approach to assessing events in Ukraine.
According to Beijing, the destabilization of the situation in this country is caused by the purposeful actions of the United States and the leading European states in the direction of reducing Russian influence in the post-Soviet space.
At the same time, Beijing's position on the Crimean issue is determined by China's unconditional commitment to the principles of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity. Therefore, expressing during bilateral contacts "understanding" of the logic of Russia's actions during the Ukrainian crisis, Beijing "tacitly recognized" the results of the Crimean referendum. And thus actually provided veiled support for the Russian position on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. As opinion polls show, the majority of Chinese support their own.
Despite the conduct of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia promptly submitted its report for 2021 to the UN Register of Conventional Arms. According to the information provided in it, the Russian Federation officially declared the supply in 2021 for export to the PRC of the following weapons that fall under the Register. Section No. 7 "Missiles and rocket launchers" indicates the delivery of 242 units of military products (probably aviation missiles for Su-35 fighters).
The Russian Aerospace Forces have successfully used multi-purpose Su-35S and MiG-31BM fighters to ensure air supremacy in the area of their own. Such facts raise interest in domestic aviation and rocket technology from the countries – partners of Russia in military-technical cooperation. Thus, some Chinese media speak in favor of purchasing an additional batch of Russian weapons, including interceptor fighters capable of providing a reliable air blockade of Taiwan if necessary.
The Chinese leadership avoids criticizing Russia and does not join the anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time, it makes it clear that Chinese companies can join them in order to protect their economic interests in the West.
Thus, the policy of the West today objectively pushes China towards rapprochement with Russia.
Chinese military analysts continue to draw lessons from the special operation in Ukraine in order to assist China with their observations in creating a strategic deterrence system for the next five years, proclaimed in the report of Chinese President Xi Jinping at the twentieth CPC Congress. Taking into account its experience in Ukraine, China will continue to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles of the Dongfeng series, air-launched cruise missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
Chinese military experts ask a reasonable question: what to do? – in connection with the partial destruction of the Zaporozhye JSC "Motor-Sich". As a result, a long-term cooperation plan was disrupted, which provided for the organization of serial production of Ukrainian-designed engines at Chinese enterprises. But in Chongqing, Sichuan Province, they have already begun to build a plant for the production and maintenance of Ukrainian engines. The Chinese invested $100 million in the modernization of Motor Sich's production facilities in Ukraine itself, and another $ 150 million was planned for the creation of a center for advanced development and pilot production at it.
IS A MILITARY ALLIANCE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA POSSIBLE
The results of the analysis show a gradual decline in the role of military-technical cooperation in the relations between the two countries. Since 2013, there has been a process of "replacing" the military cooperation proper with the usual place of the military-technical cooperation in Russian-Chinese relations. The number of military exercises that demonstrate the military power of Russia and China is increasing.
At the same time, the military–technical cooperation of our countries has passed several stages: from the export of Soviet weapons systems to China - to the implementation of individual developments and orders for special projects of the Chinese defense industrial complex (MIC); from the cooperation of Chinese engineers with Russian design bureaus – to the supply of high-tech weapons systems in the interests of Chinese air defense and missile defense.
Despite the generally positive scenario for the development of Russian-Chinese relations, the experience of cooperation with China suggests that there are challenges to Russia's interests – both potential and quite real.
Already at present, the Chinese defense industry is able to meet the needs of its Armed Forces in almost any weapons, generally eliminating the lag in the development of the technological base. The elimination of the shortcomings in scientific and technological development that still exist will allow China to achieve regional and global leadership, the implementation of such a direction of its strategy as "overcoming the consequences of the imperialist policy of European countries towards the PRC."
On the international arena, the confrontation between China, on the one hand, and the United States and Western countries in general, on the other, continues. It is expressed both in the rhetoric of official representatives of countries and in the conclusion of deals on the supply of weapons and equipment from the United States to third parties.
So, the situation around Taiwan escalated after the United States signed a deal on the supply of weapons to this island. Tensions between China and European countries are still growing on the European track (recent events include Lithuania's appeal to the United States to host a permanent military contingent and the UK's development of a visa program for Hong Kong residents).
As for the Ukrainian issue, China adheres to a neutral position in official statements, speaking about respect for the sovereignty and preservation of the territorial integrity of states, about universal security and the resolution of the conflict through negotiations. At the same time, Chinese officials do not miss the opportunity on social networks to declare a "real threat" in the face of the United States.
CONCLUSIONS AND GENERALIZATIONS
Military-political cooperation between Russia and China is a factor that makes it possible to solve the problem of strategic deterrence. The proper implementation of the military-technical cooperation of Russia and China makes it possible to ensure Russia's economic security in the new conditions of the international situation.
At the same time, especially in connection with the frequent cases of unlicensed copying of Russian weapons, it is necessary to pay more attention to assessing the risks of supplying military equipment to China. We believe that such a proactive approach will make it possible to fully realize the potential of the Russian defense industry.
It seems that the positive scenario of the development of the military-technical cooperation of Russia and China in the new geopolitical and geo-economic conditions is the most realistic. We believe that within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), military-technical cooperation between the two countries will have a positive impact on regional stability, since it will smooth out acute regional contradictions in the China-India bond by creating military parity. Also, the results of the Russian-Chinese military-technical cooperation will have a positive impact on the fight against the "three forces of evil", in Chinese terminology, in the SCO space. Namely– terrorism, extremism and separatism.
As for Russia itself, at this stage, the direction and content of military and military-technical cooperation with China corresponds to our interests both in terms of economic returns and because of the great military-political importance of Russian-Chinese relations for the formation of a multipolar system of global security.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
