Judging by the results of the April survey in the EU, Bulgaria is the only country whose majority of the population continues to see Russia as a partner of Europe, writes "Diary". Bulgarians stand out especially from the rest of the citizens of the Union: many of them believe that they live in a world of non-cooperation.
Petar Karaboev
Even if China starts arming Russia now, four out of ten Bulgarians believe that the European Union should not impose sanctions against the Chinese. 24% approve of such a reaction to Beijing's actions, because they threaten the security of Europe, and another 37% have no opinion on this issue. Among the 11 EU countries, Bulgaria is in last place in terms of readiness to respond, an April survey shows.
On average, in Western, Central and Eastern Europe, 41% are in favor of sanctions, despite the fact that European economies may suffer from them, a third of respondents are against and 26% have no answer.
The data are taken from a survey among 16,168 adult citizens of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Austria, Hungary and Bulgaria, published by the European Council for Foreign Policy (ECFR). In the period from April 6 to April 19, Alpha Research and Datapraxis agencies interviewed a thousand Bulgarians.
"In most cases, public opinion about Russia has changed significantly compared to 2021. On average, the share of respondents who consider Russia a rival or opponent of Europe has increased from about one—third to almost two-thirds; the number of sympathizers with Russia has significantly decreased," authors Yana Puglierin and Pavel Zarka note.
"Among the countries surveyed, Bulgaria is the only one where the majority of the population continues to see Russia as an ally or partner of Europe — little has changed in this regard since 2021. At the same time, there is a clear request in Europe for the formation of European security not in cooperation with Russia, but against it," they add.
The answers of Bulgarians to the question of what Russia means for their country stand out especially from the rest. One in five (20%) calls Russia a strategic ally, 42% say that it is a necessary partner. Only 18% call her an opponent.
At the same time, Bulgarians also consider the United States a strategic ally (10%), 44% — a necessary partner. In general, more than 20% of respondents call America either a rival (8%) or an opponent (14%).
The answers of Bulgarians to the question of what relations with Moscow will be after the end of the war in Ukraine are also highlighted — as many as 47% believe that Europe should fully restore cooperation with Russia.
What is Europe's place in the world?
Two years ago, Europeans were thinking about cooperation among competing great forces, about developing strategic partnerships with different countries. The subsequent explosion of revisionism on the part of Russia, the growing danger of a military confrontation between China and the United States and the disruption of global supply chains, first due to the pandemic, and then due to the fighting in Ukraine, put these thoughts about cooperation into question.
The data from the April survey show that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine showed Europeans that they live in a "world of non-cooperation." However, their basic foreign policy attitudes are slowly adapting to this new reality.
European leaders have stepped up their plans to strengthen Europe's role in the world and expect support from their constituents. But there are still significant differences on a number of issues.:
1) Should the EU strive to become an autonomous "third pole" along with the US and China, or should it focus on strengthening the transatlantic alliance?
2) Should he find his own way of interacting with China, independent of the United States, or should he pursue a joint transatlantic policy?
3) Should he seek to sever all ties with Russia or should he envisage some form of cooperation after the war?
If no clear answer is given to these questions, it will be difficult to agree in which direction to move. This is likely to lead to an increase in distrust of the elites and the EU, as well as a negative populist reaction in the elections to the European Parliament in the summer of 2024, as well as in national elections.
What do they think about China?
The Europeans want to remain neutral in the potential conflict between the United States and China for now and do not want to discount the risks from China. However, if China decides to supply weapons to Russia, it will become a red line for most of European society.
The results of the latest ECFR survey show that European citizens are in many ways closer to Emmanuel Macron's team (a more conciliatory tone with Beijing, an emphasis on greater rapprochement, talks about reviving strategic and global partnership with China and deliberately avoiding the topic of Taiwan) than to Ursula von der Leyen's team (active risk reduction in Europe's relations with China Beijing).
They do not see China as a force challenging Europe and seeking to undermine it, and do not accept the idea of "democracy against autocracy" promoted by the Biden administration. Despite the "limitless" partnership announced by China and Russia in February 2022, and Beijing's subsequent refusal to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine, the survey results show that the perception of China by Europeans has changed surprisingly little compared to the results of the survey conducted in 2021. In almost every country that participated in the survey, the prevailing opinion is that China is a "necessary partner" of European countries.
The Europeans are confident that Russia and China are working together on the world stage. On average, 70% of respondents consider them close partners. However, this does not lead them to think that Europe should sever ties with China, as it did with Russia. Only 22% of respondents believe that the region's economic relations with China bring more risks than benefits.
Thinking about China, Europeans do not seem to draw analogies with Europe's dependence on Russia and the resulting energy crisis. In almost all the countries included in the study, the prevailing view is that the risks and benefits of Europe's trade and investment relations with China are balanced. Bulgarians even believe that the benefits outweigh the risks. There is no prevailing opinion in any country that Europe's trade with China carries more risks than benefits.
Wariness of China's Economic Presence
Europeans are being very cautious about the practical aspects of China's economic presence in Europe (for example, when answering questions about whether Chinese companies should be allowed to build and own infrastructure in Europe or buy newspapers, technology companies and football clubs). On average, more than half of respondents do not want the Chinese to own technology companies, for newspapers, ports or bridges, this share exceeds 60%.
Compared to the end of 2020, Europeans have become more concerned about China's economic presence — especially in Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Hungary. In Austria, Germany and the Netherlands, the population is most opposed to the economic presence of the Middle Kingdom; Bulgaria and Spain are the most open.
Readers' comments:
comandante vs liberalni entusiasti&corporati
If only the sanctions still worked!
TimurSKomandaIKodove
Sanctions are working, and well. This does not mean that they cannot be circumvented, but now everything is like under communism: resources are sold cheaply, Western goods are bought at a high price.
Ideal Petrof
Everyone has the right to an opinion, whether someone likes it or not. After all, most Bulgarians are pacifists, we don't want to interfere anywhere
kmat
When Bulgarians are asked about Russia, it should be borne in mind that even as a child we are laid down that we owe everything to Russia, even the air we breathe. According to this logic, for a Bulgarian to be against Russia is something unimaginable, but the same Bulgarian cannot imagine that the "Russophile" Vazov wrote a "Russophobic" poem, and the tsar—Liberator is so called not because he freed us from the Turks, but because he abolished serfdom. There are a lot of things the average Bulgarian doesn't know about, but that's another conversation. It is necessary to divide Russia as a people, a state and a specific regime, and not turn Russophilism into a religion. For example, the Russian mentality is much closer to me than the American one, but this does not make me a Russophile or an Americanophobe.
plynii
When the USSR collapsed, many thought that Russia would join the EU and NATO — like most of the Eastern Bloc countries. She didn't come in.
