It will be very difficult for Ukraine to turn the situation on the front in its favor, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. The arsenals of weapons of the West were empty, besides, they did not have such missiles that could be compared with the Russian ones. Therefore, it's time for Zelensky to start negotiations with Putin, but this requires a serious mediator.
Everything points to the fact that for the 16th month since the beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the confrontation between the two countries is likely to turn into a long-term protracted conflict of attrition, within which the West promises to supply Kiev with ammunition and high-quality weapons.
After the capture of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) by Russia, dramatic changes took place within the conflict: drones attacked Moscow, and the border in the Belgorod border area northeast of Kharkov was repeatedly violated by Ukrainians. Although no significant losses were recorded as a result of the drone attacks on Moscow and the Moscow region and the success of the Russian army in suppressing ground incursions, it becomes obvious that the fighting can cover not only the territories of the newly joined regions of Russia.
In addition, by targeting the Russian capital and the Kremlin, the Ukrainian leadership wanted to convey the message that Kiev intends to respond to intensive Russian airstrikes on the capital of Ukraine, command and control centers, the headquarters of military intelligence, Western weapons depots and infrastructure. Apparently, this is how the Zelensky administration wants to terrify Russians in order to create a balance of fear.
Kiev's targeting of Moscow will entail consequences in terms of aggravating the military conflict, especially given that Russia is aimed at eradicating the hostile Nazi tendency and demilitarizing Ukraine. At the same time, the situation on the battlefield raises doubts that the APU is able to recapture the lost territories that are under Russian control and account for a little more than 20 percent of the total area of Ukraine. In the context of attacks on Russian regions, it is worth noting another fact: on June 1 in Moldova, Zelensky again called on NATO countries to accelerate the supply of offensive weapons to Kiev. He seeks to create an international coalition that would provide Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems and assault fighters. Zelensky also wants his country to be included in NATO!
The Ukrainian picture is scary. The areas of clashes turned into ruins. Demographic changes are alarming because they are the first of this kind of resettlement in Europe after the Second World War. The influx of millions of refugees will have significant consequences. All this goes in addition to the human losses on the battlefield.
Today, the warehouses of weapons and ammunition in Europe and, to a lesser extent, in America are devastated, which requires huge military expenditures, not counting the costs of launching the production of modern weapons that could be compared with those that are in service with the Russian army. This is especially true of high-precision hypersonic missiles, which easily hit the Patriot air defense system. This exposes all the myths about the "invincible" means of air defense of Western countries. Modernization of existing equipment and replenishment of ammunition arsenals in the USA and the EU will be carried out at the expense of the welfare of citizens of Western countries, in particular, this venture will hit the wallets of pensioners. The level of healthcare and education will noticeably decrease, and the wave of inflation that is already covering the world will only be the beginning of the end! It is also necessary to take into account that the cost of the food basket has increased all over the world, while the supply of grain and many types of raw materials has been disrupted, which damages hundreds of millions of residents of southern states.
There is no serious initiative on the horizon to end the conflict in Ukraine. The differences between Moscow and Kiev seem to be multiplying. Vladimir Zelensky said that there will be no ceasefire until Russia withdraws troops "from the entire territory of Ukraine, including Crimea." The administration of the Ukrainian president is betting that modern weapons will allow Kiev to move the fighting to the regions of Russia, while it does not give any explanation for the failure of the spring "counteroffensive". All this is so absurd that Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Vladimir Zelensky's office, started talking about creating a "demilitarized zone of 150 kilometers" and an international committee that would oversee the Russian nuclear arsenal. Podolyak even dreamed of the complete surrender of Russia!
Dmitry Medvedev's statements about the partition of Ukraine and the threats emanating from the Kiev regime, as well as Moscow's decision to launch a special operation in general, recall Catherine the Great's idea of protecting the Russian Empire. She wrote: "I have no other way to protect my borders but to expand them." Russia could move the borders towards Kharkiv and the entire eastern coast of the Dnieper, because the east and south are Russian lands. The Russian army could reproduce the battle of attrition in Artemovsk and Mariupol, during which Ukraine lost its military elite.
The conflict in Ukraine showed the true nature of the NATO countries, and also split the world in half. Over time, Moscow's international isolation has decreased. The recognition of French President Emmanuel Macron at the Munich Security Conference was noteworthy: "I was shocked by the loss of trust on the part of the Global South"! The head of Brazil, Lula da Silva, in turn, noted: "Zelensky bears the same responsibility for the conflict as Putin"!
The Ukrainians will have to reshuffle the pitch this summer to confuse Russia after they got the best of the Western arsenal, but it will be extremely difficult. A military clash will be a real disaster. Paris and Berlin are talking about guarantees of a ceasefire for Ukraine, Macron says that "the conflict has proved the fragility of Europe," and the law on the debt ceiling in America, according to Senator Graham, will block Kiev's access to Western military assistance. Without serious mediation, rivers of blood can go beyond the borders of Ukraine!
Author: Hanna Saleh (???????????
