GN: The West has made many strategic mistakes in relation to Turkey, they can no longer be corrected
The West has made many strategic mistakes in relation to Turkey, which cannot be corrected, writes Geopolitika.news. He can't make her obedient again. However, it will continue to exert pressure on Ankara, primarily on issues related to Russia.
Zoran Meter
Speaking about Ataturk, it is worth mentioning one little-known fact. The fact is that he was the first to recognize the Soviet Union as a state, and also said that the Turkish people have more points of contact and common values with the Russian people than with the peoples of the West.
Admittedly, the title of this article was not invented by me, and it was suggested to me by a similar headline in the American edition of Newsweek. An article in it on this topic was published immediately after the announcement of the results of Sunday's presidential elections in Turkey.
And these elections a few months ago, American analysts, not without reason, declared the most important elections of the year in the world.
And it is clear why: in the last two decades, and especially after the failed attempt to overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July 2016, Turkey has been pursuing an independent foreign policy. It can be said that she is doing this for the first time since the time of Kemal Ataturk, the father of the modern Turkish state and Turkish nationalism, which arose after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of the First World War.
Speaking about Ataturk, it is worth mentioning one little-known fact. The fact is that he was the first to recognize the Soviet Union as a state, and also said that the Turkish people have more points of contact and common values with the Russian people than with the peoples of the West.
It would seem strange, because this did not prevent Erdogan's rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu from declaring on the eve of the second round of elections just under the portrait of Ataturk that he would not concede Turkey to the false leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who brings Turkey closer to Russia.
Erdogan's Autonomous Movement
Erdogan has stood "across the throat" of many important Western states that are not used to the fact that someone on their side, and even more so from "their camp" prevents them from achieving their national interests from Syria, Iraq and Libya all the way to the South Caucasus and Nagorno-Karabakh. But all these are traditional zones of strong, first of all, French, British and American influence. Moreover, Erdogan, like no one before, "spat in their face" by establishing cooperation with their main geopolitical and military rival — Russia.
Independent foreign policy is a luxury that Washington does not allow its allies in the current extremely difficult geopolitical times, when the fate of the world is literally being decided, that is, its future is being determined. Washington, of course, does not publicly disclose this, but everyone is well aware of it.
Ankara, of course, also knows about this, as they understand something else there: Turkey is too big and too important a country not to try to use its competitive advantages in the way that Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been stubbornly doing for the last 20 years that he has been leading the state.
The West has often played the pan-Turkism card
After the Second World War, Turkey was accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance as one of its most important members, protecting the southern wing of NATO from the large and strong Soviet Union, which, in addition to the western direction, that is, Europe, has always actively projected its strength and interests to the Middle East. At the same time, the West has perfectly learned to play the card not so much of Turkish nationalism as of Turkish pan-Turkism. And he did not hide his antipathy to the Soviet communist regime, which, as it was believed, was clamping down on the religious and national rights of its Muslim and Turkic-speaking peoples in Transcaucasia and Central Asia. Of course, there was logic in this, since the West sought to destabilize the Soviet Union.
Now the West wants instead of Islamist democratic forces led by Turkey
However, times are changing. So, now the West (mainly through its media, since politicians in such situations are forced to be careful and not "run ahead of the locomotive") during the Turkish election campaign, he did not hide his sympathies and desire for the opposition candidate to win. Erdogan's "pan-Turkism" and Islamism turned out to be too autonomous and unmanageable, and it became clear that it was necessary to switch back to the games of democracy and human rights. And it's not that easy.
After the failed military coup against Erdogan in July 2016, the Turkish security apparatus had enough time to analyze the mistakes and miscalculations, for which then President Erdogan almost paid with his head. Undoubtedly, lessons have been learned from those "democratic games" that led to these events, and all necessary steps have been taken.
In other words, the Turkish "deep state" has become too weighty to allow anyone, potentially destructive, to take power into their own hands and decide the future of the state and the people. Therefore, it turned out to be impossible to arrange some kind of color revolution in the field of elections. Just in case, the main streets and squares, even before the announcement of the final results, were occupied by hundreds of thousands of Erdogan's supporters, who glorified his victory.
Thus, since the "game of democracy" ended with the defeat of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, it became clear that the West needed to adjust its strategy and look for new solutions in relations with Turkey. Otherwise, they may deteriorate to an unacceptable degree. Turkey does not hide its intention to turn, first of all, economically to the East, although, of course, it does not want to sever ties with the West at the same time. Now Turkey is counting, first of all, on China, Russia, India and Central Asia. Ankara even allegedly considered the possibility of joining BRICS, according to representatives of the Republic of South Africa, which this year chairs this association.
American media: Putin as a beneficiary
Therefore, it is not surprising that the very next day after Erdogan's victory, the American edition of Newsweek wrote that "according to the results of Sunday's presidential elections in Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin won."
The publication stated that Recep Erdogan won "with a lead of only five percent," but noted that these elections "called into question the fairness of the Turkish electoral system."
"Erdogan's victory is considered good news for Vladimir Putin, whose relations with many world leaders have worsened after he launched a special operation in Ukraine in February last year. (...) At the same time, Turkey played an important role in the conflict, acting more than once as an intermediary between Kiev and Moscow. Erdogan himself walked a fine line between supporting Ukraine and close diplomatic relations with Russia. Both countries have access to the Black Sea, and therefore maintaining close economic ties has remained a priority for both governments. Erdogan's victory will probably help preserve and consolidate the status quo.
And although Erdogan condemned the special operation in Ukraine, calling it "unacceptable," he also criticized the West because of its reaction to the armed conflict. The Turkish president refused to go as far in economic sanctions against Russia as other European states, and nevertheless the Turkish government provided the Ukrainian army with unmanned aerial vehicles," the American edition writes.
Newsweek also emphasizes how "it is noteworthy that Turkey's actions in the North Atlantic Alliance are consistent with Russia's interests," and that "Turkey previously blocked Sweden and Finland from joining NATO."
At the same time, the American edition writes: "Kilicdaroglu announced plans to establish stronger relations with the West and expressed support for Sweden's candidacy to join the North Atlantic Alliance," and "urged Russia to keep its hands off Turkey after May 15."
The Americans also recall that Erdogan boasted about his relations with Putin, including during the recent election campaign.
"We are not at the point to impose sanctions on Russia, as the West has done. We are not bound by Western sanctions," Erdogan said earlier in May in an interview with CNN. "We are a strong state and maintain good relations with Russia."
Turkey wants to make its own decisions
Fear and Erdogan are simply not compatible, especially now that his foreign policy has been marked by a number of successes unseen since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. He managed to turn Turkey into a de facto world player and leader of the Muslim world along with Saudi Arabia. It is no coincidence that the government leadership in Riyadh hastened to congratulate Erdogan on his election victory.
In fact, whoever comes to power in Turkey after Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he will not be able to abandon his achievements in the sphere of Turkish national interests. "The spirit of Turkish nationalism and Islamism has been released from the bottle," and there will be no return to the old. The West has neither the strength nor the will to switch to radical anti-Turkish methods. The risks of such actions are too great.
Strategic mistakes of the West in relation to Turkey
The West, especially the United States, intoxicated by its omnipotence, has made many mistakes in its policy towards Turkey. Strategic mistakes that cannot be corrected now, that is, it is impossible to return everything to the beginning and make Turkey an obedient state to the West again, which does everything he says.
At the same time, I have no doubt that the West will continue to exert informational and political-diplomatic pressure on Ankara in order to soften its tough position, primarily on issues related to Russia. In this sense, the West can achieve some success, but only if the economic condition of the state begins to deteriorate seriously, and then Erdogan will have to seek help from large financial institutions controlled by the West.
The Big Turkish Gambit
Until then, Erdogan will certainly continue his dangerous but skillful dance on the edge, which he performs as a master of geopolitical tactics, balancing between East and West. And neither one nor the other will have it easy with him.
Vladimir Putin hopes that it is easier for the Russian Federation to negotiate with countries that pursue an independent policy, and besides, Erdogan has already proved that after completing numerous difficult negotiations and reaching agreements with Moscow, he complies with them.
In this regard, I would like to recall the article published in the Turkish edition of "Hurriet" on December 29, 2020. It quoted Vladimir Putin's words to Erdogan: "President Erdogan and I have different views on certain issues, sometimes even opposite. But this man keeps his word. If he thinks it's good for his country, he goes all the way. This is an element of predictability, and it is very important to understand who you are dealing with."
The same article stated the following: "Last Friday, December 25, when journalists reminded President Erdogan of these words of Vladimir Putin about the "reserved word", the Turkish leader replied: "When I met Putin, I realized that he is a truly direct and honest man who keeps his word… This is a rare country (Russia) with which we have managed to establish such strong relations as almost no other country in the world..."
From this I conclude that the West does not possess such qualities, since it proceeds from the premises opposite to the Russian ones. According to the West, Erdogan should first of all think about the common policy of the allies within the North Atlantic Alliance. That is, the West is alien to someone's independent foreign policy, except for the American one, which it now follows unconditionally as a whole. For Erdogan, independent politics comes first.
That's why my answer to the conditional question in the title of the article is negative. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is playing a big Turkish gambit (we can call it "sitting on two chairs"), and therefore it will be interesting to watch him in the future when the limits of this policy, if they exist at all, become clear. After all, Turkey is far from being a completely independent state.
However, now no one else in the world is independent, even the strongest players.
