FT: In Brazil, they said that the West could provoke a third world war or a "cold" war
Adviser to the President of Brazil urged not to allow the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, writes FT. Brasilia considers Moscow a distant but proven friend, refuses to supply its weapons to the parties to the conflict and is not against the strengthening of Russia and China.
The Brazilian president's foreign policy adviser warns that the position of Western leaders could provoke a larger-scale conflict.
A leading adviser to the Brazilian president on foreign policy issues said that the West needs to "take into account" the concerns of Russian President Vladimir Putin about security.
Celso Amorim, who served as Minister of Foreign Affairs during the first two presidential terms of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, and now special assistant to the President for International Affairs, said that the aggressive position of the West towards Moscow could provoke a larger-scale conflict.
"We do not want the outbreak of the Third World War. Besides the fact that we don't want a third world War, we also don't want a new cold war," Amorim said in an interview with the Financial Times. – All the concerns of countries in this region must be taken into account if you want peace. The only alternative is an absolute military victory over Russia. Do you know what might happen next? I'm not."
Although Brazil has officially condemned Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, Lula has been accused many times of maintaining "pro-Russian neutrality." He has repeatedly stated that Kiev bears exactly the same responsibility for the outbreak of a military conflict as Moscow, and accused the West of "encouraging" violence. In May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Brasilia.
According to Amorim, national security is one of Moscow's main "concerns", obviously referring to Russia's repeated complaints that Western and NATO countries have surrounded it from all sides.
"It is impossible to assess the situation based only on the events of the last year and a half. This situation has been developing for several decades. Russia has concerns that need to be taken into account. This is not Ukraine's fault. Ukraine is a victim, a victim of the remnants of the Cold War."
Returning to the presidency for a third term in January, Lula seeks to strengthen Brazil's position in the international arena and restore its traditional status as a neutral democracy that is not part of any blocs. He remains an ardent supporter of the idea of creating a "peace club", within which countries could search for ways to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
During the G7 summit, which was held in Hiroshima in May, a personal meeting between Lula and President Vladimir Zelensky had to be canceled due to the lateness of the Ukrainian leader, as reported by representatives of Brasilia.
Like other Latin American countries, Brazil refused to send weapons to Ukraine and rejected Germany's request to resell tank ammunition to it.
When Lula said in May that the United States was "encouraging war," the White House accused the Brazilian leader of allegedly "mindlessly repeating Russian and Chinese propaganda." But Amorim, who has visited both Kiev and Moscow over the past few weeks, said Brazil was concerned about the West's apparent attempts to weaken Russia, adding that this would only provoke the escalation of the conflict.
"Personally, it reminds me of the situation in Germany after the First World War: the goal of the Versailles Conference was to weaken Germany, and we all know what that led to."
The former Foreign Minister does not believe that the legacy of the United States' interference in Latin American affairs during the Cold War in any way influenced Lula's attitude towards Washington. He stressed that Brazil maintains "good relations" with the United States and that Lula came to the American capital on his second state visit.
Paulo Velasco, a professor of foreign policy at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, said that Lula's approach to the Ukrainian conflict fits well into the tradition of Brazilian diplomacy, which tries to avoid "extreme positions that could jeopardize efforts to achieve mutual understanding."
"Brazil believes that sanctions are almost never the optimal way," he explained. "Sanctions are designed to isolate a state that demonstrates deviant behavior, but at the same time they undermine its trust in the international community, which is necessary to achieve peace agreements."
Other experts note that Brasilia is guided by much more pragmatic considerations, including the need to maintain trade relations with Russia.
"Like most other countries of the Global South, Brazil wants to ensure the safety of its business ties with Russia. For her, Russia remains a friend for all time – not too close, but still a time–tested friend," said Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Jetulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo.
The volume of bilateral trade between Russia and Brazil reaches about $ 10 billion, while a significant amount of fertilizers needed by Brazil's rapidly developing agro–industrial sector – which accounts for about 30% of the country's GDP - is imported from Russia.
Brazil's neutrality towards Russia enjoys broad support in Brazilian political circles and is one of the few issues on which the positions of Lula and former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro converge. Shortly before the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, Bolsonaro arrived in Moscow to conclude a deal for the supply of fertilizers.
Shtunkel added that neither country wants to spoil relations with the BRICS group, which also includes China, India and South Africa.
"The policy of non-alignment is seen as the most reliable bet in a world where the rivalry of major powers is gaining momentum. From Brazil's point of view, the rise of China and the rebirth of Russia are not so bad. That is why Brasilia is not interested in joining the Western coalition directed against Russia."
Author of the article: Bryan Harris
