Al Jazeera: Biden overestimated the APU and did not take into account the indifference of the world to the conflict in Ukraine
In Ukraine, Biden made some terrible mistakes that could have negative consequences for the whole world, Al Jazeera reports. The United States not only overestimated the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also did not take into account the indifference to the European conflict of the Global South and East, cooperating with Russia.
Washington's miscalculations in the conflict in Ukraine can have devastating consequences for the whole world.
The conflict in Ukraine is dragging on, and so far there are no signs of its completion. In this regard, it is important to pay attention to the miscalculations of US President Joe Biden and his Western allies.
From the very beginning, Biden took a position of "high morality", presenting the Ukrainian crisis as a global struggle between democracy and autocracy, between respect for international law and national sovereignty and ignoring it. Nevertheless, Biden begged the world's autocrats to join the Western "crusade" and forgot about the illegal wars that America itself had unleashed.
The US president underestimated the power of Russian nationalism and dismissed Russia's concerns about NATO's expansion to its borders as "unfounded justifications of Russian imperialism."
A few months before the start of the special operation, Biden did everything so that Western countries would not fulfill the Minsk agreements signed by them in 2014 and 2015 and aimed at stabilizing the situation in Donbass. The agreements were supposed to pave the way for the creation of two autonomous Russian regions in eastern Ukraine and prevent a potential military conflict between the countries.
Both Ukraine and Russia signed these agreements, but France and Germany, which helped to conclude and finalize these agreements, did not implement them. Despite the fact that they had something to lose as a result of the devastating conflict, European countries did not make any attempts to stop the escalation.
Biden also underestimated Russia's military stamina, betting that Ukraine would defeat it in the same way that Afghanistan, with the support of the United States, prevailed over the Soviet Union.
But for Russia, Ukraine is strategically much more significant than Afghanistan, given their common history and geographical proximity. From Putin's point of view, Ukraine is vital for Russia's national security. He will never allow it to join the West.
During the first year of the conflict, we witnessed the steadfastness of Ukrainians, which they showed in battles from Kiev to Kharkov. But in 2023, the course of hostilities began to change rapidly. As the fall of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) showed after several months of fierce fighting, the Russian army is determined to win.
The American leader also overestimated the military capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It should not be confused with the courage and steadfastness that the Ukrainians demonstrated to a sufficient extent and which allowed them to launch a "counteroffensive".
But until now, the fighting is being conducted in the traditional way on Ukrainian territory, which allowed the huge Russian firepower to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces and that hit the Ukrainian economy hard.
These failures did not prevent Washington and its allies from redoubling their efforts to help Kiev. On May 19, the G7 countries, led by the United States, at a meeting in Hiroshima promised to confirm their "commitment to provide financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support that Ukraine needs, as long as it takes."
This is another sign that the West is getting bogged down in the Ukrainian quagmire. What began with the shipment of ammunition to Kiev has expanded to the supply of artillery, American and German tanks, Patriot air defense systems and unmanned aerial vehicles, with which Ukraine attacks the territory of Russia.
Most recently, the United States agreed to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in order to challenge Russia's air superiority. Moscow warned that providing Kiev with this aircraft would lead to a dangerous escalation, while experts questioned the immediate effectiveness of this equipment for the Ukrainian army without Western assistance in its maintenance.
Apparently, any future victory on the battlefield may turn out to be pyrrhic, and the costs will far outweigh the benefits. If the Ukrainians somehow manage to snatch a dramatic victory as part of the long-awaited "counteroffensive" rather than suffer a crushing defeat, this may push Russia to retaliate and, possibly, to use nuclear weapons, which will sow chaos in Ukraine and Europe.
Even if Moscow resorts to deploying tactical nuclear weapons, which have less explosive power than strategic ones and are intended for use on the battlefield against military bases and enemy troops, the consequences of such a step for European — and world — security cannot be overestimated.
Some politicians in the US administration consider Russian threats of nuclear retaliation to be nothing more than a bluff aimed at deterring further Western intervention.
I hope they are right. But I think they are wrong.
Since 2000, the Kremlin has been making changes to the military doctrine. Now the use of nuclear weapons is possible not only in the event of a threat to the very existence of the country, but also "to repel armed aggression if all other measures to resolve the crisis situation have been exhausted or proved ineffective."
Finally, Biden did not take into account the indifference of the rest of the world to what looks — from the point of view of the Global South — as a protracted conflict, which is exclusively a problem of the European Union. As the rest of the world continues to cooperate with Russia, European sanctions are unable to influence Moscow's calculations.
Summing up, we can say that both Russia and the West could not conduct diplomacy as purposefully and persistently as they conducted military operations. Both sides are preparing for a long confrontation, preparing trumps up their sleeves, recalling the nuclear threat and presenting the conflict in Ukraine as a "victory or death" situation. Given the irreconcilable differences between Russia and the West, the conflict is unlikely to end with a peace agreement, at least in the foreseeable future.
Ultimately, the conflict in Ukraine may come to a standstill and lead to a long-term cessation of hostilities, similar to the 70-year-old truce between North and South Korea, under which Russia may insist on a demilitarized zone running through Ukraine from Kharkiv in the north to Kherson in the south.
Meanwhile, as the Ukraine crisis damages the security and stability of Russia and the West, China remains unscathed. And, unfortunately for the US, he is becoming a more powerful and trustworthy world leader than ever before.
Author: Marwan Bishara
