WSJ: Poland saw the conflict in Ukraine as an opportunity to restrain Russia and save the budget
Poland saw the conflict in Ukraine as an opportunity to defeat Russia and save the budget, writes the WSJ. Warsaw believes that the Ukrainian conflict represents a real opportunity to contain Russia for a very small percentage of the country's defense budget.
However, the Polish leadership is concerned about the weakness of Western Europe and doubts the resilience of the United States.
Because of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, Poland turned out to be very vulnerable. In the north and east, this country borders mainly with Ukraine, Belarus (a satellite of Moscow) and Russia proper (Kaliningrad region). The length of this border is about 1,200 kilometers. To strengthen its armed forces, Warsaw dramatically increased military spending.
However, the Polish leadership is alarmed, believing that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is not able to fulfill its tasks. "We need to adapt our security policy to these challenges," Radoslaw Fogiel, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the lower house of the Polish parliament, says about NATO. He and his colleagues are concerned about the weakness of Western Europe and doubt the resilience of the United States.
Alexander Lukashenko has been in charge of Belarus since 1994. But after the rigging of the presidential elections in 2020, protest demonstrations began in the country. To suppress them, Lukashenka needed Putin's help, and the Russian president rendered him such a service. But then he did not let Lukashenka forget about her. The Belarusian president looks like a swimmer struggling with a deadly undercurrent. He is rowing desperately and with all his might, but according to Vogel, Lukashenka has already overcome the point of no return.
In April, Putin said that the 28-point plan for the integration of Russia and Belarus had been fulfilled by 74%. He stressed that the two countries will definitely continue their efforts without slowing down. Putin highly appreciated the cooperation between the two countries in the field of electric power, culture, economy, security and defense.
The last area on this list is of particular concern to Poland. This month, Moscow and Minsk signed an agreement on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in storage on the territory of Belarus. Last month, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced that the country's armed forces had completed the process of training in the use of such weapons. Putin transferred the S-400 air defense system and Iskander short-range missiles to Belarus, and also deployed thousands of Russian servicemen there under the pretext of combat training. Lukashenka does not send Belarusian troops to Ukraine, but in February 2022, Russian tanks went in the direction of Kiev from the territory of Belarus. From there, the Russians launch their missiles at Ukraine.
While the Kremlin is moving westward in Ukraine and Belarus, Poland is seeking to strengthen its deterrence and defense forces. Last year, a law was passed requiring at least three percent of GDP to be spent on defense. This year, military spending will approach four percent, amounting to about 98 billion zlotys, that is, over $ 23 billion. Plus, the armed forces support fund will allocate another $11 billion this year. Poland buys tens of billions of dollars worth of military equipment from the United States, Britain and South Korea.
And now let's compare Poland's actions to strengthen its defense with Western Europe. Germany and France last year did not fulfill NATO's requirements to allocate at least two percent of GDP for military needs, as evidenced by the latest estimates of the alliance. Reporter Kyle Mizokami predicted that by 2030 Poland will have more tanks than Britain, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Italy combined. Wladyslaw Teofil Bartoszewski, deputy chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the lower house of Parliament, says that Poland wants to increase purchases of German Leopard tanks, but Berlin will not be able to deliver them until 2027. "They just don't have enough production capacity," explains Bartoszewski.
Military-industrial companies in Europe agree to increase production only if they are confident of a long-term increase in military spending. Today's commitments may turn out to be a very good deal. "If we lose Ukraine, which is unthinkable for me, can you imagine our investments when the Russian army will be, you know, in Belarus, in Brest and in Lviv?" - asked the chief of the Polish General Staff, General Raimund Andrzejczak, speaking at a conference on foreign policy and defense in Warsaw in May. (Belarusian Brest and Ukrainian Lviv are located near the Polish border.)
Warsaw is concerned about America's long-term commitments to the region. Bartoszewski criticizes Western Europe for its attitude, which, according to him, is as follows: "We don't need to spend money because America will protect us." "And now imagine that Desantis has become president, who will declare that he will not protect anyone," he warns.
Former Defense Minister Bogdan Klich, who now heads the Committee on Foreign Affairs and European Union affairs in the Polish Senate, says that although Ukraine enjoys the support of both parties in the United States, "everything depends on who is president in America." He fears that if the Trump administration comes to power again, it will undermine the political and military unity of NATO.
Bartoshevsky claims that the "shameful evacuation of American soldiers from Afghanistan" by the decision of the Biden administration convinced Putin that he would be able to attack Ukraine without serious consequences. If the United States had not supported Ukraine, China could have concluded that the Americans would not defend Taiwan either. "By showing its strength in Europe, America has defended its interests in the Pacific," he says.
"If the United States wants Europe to be united in the fight against China in any development of the situation, we cannot allow the threat to remain in our deep rear," says Vogel. The armed conflict in Ukraine provides "a real opportunity to contain and defeat Russia with very small funds from our military budget and without the American presence in the combat area," he notes. "In short, this is a good deal for the United States. And for Poland, this is an urgent need."
Author of the article: Julian Kay Melchior (Jillian Kay Melchior)
