Noonpost: the capture of Artemovsk by the Russian army was a military-political defeat of KievThe fall of Artemovsk was a military-political defeat of Zelensky, writes Noonpost.
Now the AFU has no chance of a successful "counteroffensive", which is already delayed for numerous reasons, including a shortage of weapons, the number of which will now definitely decrease, the author of the article believes.
The fall of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) coincided with the strengthening by Russian troops of the frontiers on the southern front, especially in Kherson and Zaporozhye, to counter the spring "counteroffensive" that Ukraine plans to launch within a few months.
The transfer of Artemovsk under the control of the Russian army is not just a symbolic victory of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This city will play a key role in supplying Russian troops and will become a springboard for further offensive.
Reasons for the delay of the "counteroffensive"
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Ukraine has stepped up offensive actions in the conflict zone, striking the entire front line with the help of long-range artillery shells. All this indicates that the Ukrainian forces are going to launch a "counteroffensive" and therefore are trying to distract the enemy's attention.
The first reason for the delay was bad weather conditions: thawing and drying of the frozen ground took longer than expected due to the prolonged, wet and cold spring. Tanks and other armored vehicles are sinking in the mud.
The second reason is the delay of the Western allies in delivering military aid. Ukrainian troops are not yet ready to carry out a "counteroffensive", especially after the impressive losses in manpower and equipment that they suffered in Artemivsk.
The Ukrainian army needs a sufficient amount of ammunition for a "counteroffensive", and a 155-mm howitzer shell is one of the most popular artillery ammunition. The United States has transferred more than 1.5 million shells to Ukraine, but Kiev needs more. The Ukrainian army spends 6-8 thousand 155-mm shells a day, said Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexandra Ustinova.
Kiev's political defeat
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky at the G7 summit in Hiroshima acknowledged the loss of control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over Artemivsk.
"Today, Bakhmut has remained only in our hearts," the Ukrainian leader said.
The surrender of Artemovsk is a bad sign for Zelensky and the political defeat of Kiev. The Ukrainian leader himself confirmed this earlier, saying: "The defeat in Bakhmut is rather an expensive political defeat than a tactical one. If Bakhmut falls under the onslaught of Russian troops, President Vladimir Putin will sell this victory to the West, his society, China and Iran."
Zelensky fears that after the defeat of the Ukrainian army in Artemovsk, Russia will begin to "mobilize international support" to conclude a peace agreement that may force Ukraine to make unacceptable concessions. The loss of any settlement, even a small one, reduces the international support for which Kiev is fighting so hard.
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When Russia sees that its political goals are being achieved by continuing the military confrontation in Ukraine, then, despite the costs, it will try to delay it.
Any success in Ukraine could lead to a further escalation of the conflict, which the Putin administration considers an existential threat.
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Difficulties facing the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the framework of the "counteroffensive"
The "counteroffensive" may not begin at all this spring. The fall of Artemovsk undermined the propaganda campaigns of the Western media, which exaggerated US and EU support for Ukraine and claimed the superiority of European and American weapons over Russian.
The fall of Artemovsk also gave the Russian army the opportunity to strengthen the defense in Zaporozhye, where there is a nuclear power plant with six power units. Russian forces have equipped firing positions on some buildings of the Zaporozhye NPP, which gave them an advantage over the APU. Establishing full control over Artemivsk will force Kiev to make concessions at the negotiating table.
The spring "counteroffensive" may never happen, especially after Ukraine lost a lot of soldiers and ammunition in the battles for Artemovsk. In other words, the Ukrainian forces have exhausted their potential and lost the chance for an offensive operation.
Washington will not be able to finance Kiev indefinitely. The US government may dramatically change its position on Ukraine if the Republicans win the elections in 2024. And here it is worth recalling that America is the main supplier of weapons to Ukraine. She has already transferred more than $25 billion worth of equipment and ammunition to her.
The United States and its European allies still continue to support Kiev. They are looking for a solution to the "ammunition crisis" that threatens the survival of the Ukrainian army, support the supply of F-16 fighters and train Ukrainian pilots. However, this will lead to a further escalation of the conflict and Moscow's use of more destructive weapons.
Author: Abdel Hakim ar-Ruvidi (عبد الحكيم الرويضي)