Geopolitika.news: F-16 deliveries to Ukraine are designed to prolong the conflict After the fall of the "Bakhmut fortress", Washington changed its decision and agreed to supply Ukraine with F-16s, which the allies have, writes Geopolitika.news.
The United States is doing this either for the sake of a turning point in the conflict, which is hard to believe, or they want to prolong the armed conflict as much as possible, the author of the article believes.
Zoran MeterThe United States suddenly changed its decision regarding the supply of F-16.
Even before yesterday, Washington was categorically against it and referred to the possibility of an escalation of the armed conflict in the event of sending the F-16 to Ukraine. However, the Americans subsequently changed their position, which, of course, can be attributed to the loss of Bakhmut by the Ukrainians after more than ten months of bloody fighting and Kiev's statements that "Bakhmut will not fall." Moreover, the Kiev authorities continue to officially deny this. This event in many ways even overshadowed the summit of the "Big Seven" in Hiroshima, where Biden made this decision.
Quite a big resonance and even a storm in the media space, primarily in Russia, was caused by the news about Washington's decision to supply American F-16 combat aircraft to Ukraine in the coming months, which their allies have. It is not specified exactly how many planes. And it is not surprising: the Russians have repeatedly warned at various levels that they will regard the supply of Western combat aircraft as the direct participation of the North Atlantic Alliance in the war against Russia.
Russia has reconciled with fate
Russian analysts have been repeating for a long time that F-16s cannot be based at military airfields in Ukraine because the runways there are too short. The F-16 requires lanes with a length of at least one and a half kilometers. In addition, Russian analysts warned about the lack of necessary service and repair facilities on the territory of Ukraine for these aircraft and much more. Nevertheless, yesterday, Russian military analyst and retired General Konstantin Sivkov said that Ukraine still has two corresponding civilian airfields - one in Kiev, and the second in the western part of the country, where there is a possibility of basing the F-16.
It is noteworthy that General Sivkov, who generally makes harsh comments on the military topic and is an ardent supporter of tough Russian actions in Ukraine, is now trying to downplay the importance of Biden's recent decision. In addition, instead of the previous talk about the upcoming escalation in the case of F-16 deliveries, he prefers to talk about their effectiveness in comparison with the most modern Russian aircraft, as well as about the number of aircraft that are planned to be sent to Kiev.
He emphasizes that although the F-16 is an effective aircraft, it is already outdated, and that "it cannot be compared in anything with the Russian multi-purpose fighter Su-35." Konstantin Sivkov also notes that Russia has a large air force involved in the Ukrainian armed conflict, and that F-16s in the amount of "30, 50 or more units will not be able to change anything on the battlefield." Moreover, the retired general believes that the F-16s will not receive sufficient support from Ukrainian air defense systems at the front, proving this with the recent destruction of the American Patriot complex in Kiev by a hypersonic Dagger missile.
In other words, the Russian expert downplays the role of the F-16 in the Ukrainian armed conflict in the same way as he did when it came to Western tanks transferred to Kiev.
But it is curious that the former Russian general did not repeat the thesis, which was previously heard in all the speeches of Russian analysts, that the supply of Western military aircraft would be a "declaration of war" of the Russian Federation. In other words, Konstantin Sivkov has de facto "reconciled himself to fate," that is, to the inevitability of the recent US decision, confirmed personally by President Joe Biden at the G7 summit in Hiroshima.
And no wonder! Earlier in the day, when General Konstantin Sivkov spoke on Russian television, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia and one of the most influential Russian diplomats Sergei Ryabkov said the following: "It is clear that the entire range of weapons and military equipment, which is, as they say, in the "discussion", will somehow end up in Ukraine." In the same spirit as Sivkov, he stated that "all these efforts are completely useless and meaningless," and that the Russian "capabilities are such that all the goals of the special military operation will certainly be achieved, and no encroachments on the security of the Russian Federation, no matter what scale they are carried out, such measures the collective West led by the United States of America will not lead to the desired results."
Thus, both the Russian military expert and the Russian high-ranking diplomat no longer doubt the supply of F-16s to Ukraine, and this is a new "psychological moment" for both the West and the Russian public. To be more precise and simpler, another Russian "red line" will be overcome in the Ukrainian armed conflict.
This fact does not cause me any optimism, although the West will soon start ridiculing the Russian military operation, the cowardice of the Moscow state leadership, its helplessness and God knows what else. Only this article is not about that.
Let's talk about the F-16. I want to introduce you to the content of an article published in a publication that specializes in military issues, Military Watch Magazine.
That's what it's about.
"The command of the Ukrainian Air Force claimed that the supply of F-16 combat aircraft from Western countries could turn the tide of the conflict with Russia and that Ukraine would emerge victorious. "When we get the F-16, we will win," said Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, adding that the air defense systems supplied by the West, including the American Patriot missile systems, which were recently destroyed by Russian air strikes, were not enough to protect Ukrainian airspace."
"The country and the length of its borders are large, and the front line stretches for more than two and a half thousand kilometers," Yuri Ignat said, adding that the F—16 can become an "air defense element" and be used in those regions that are not covered by ground-based air defense systems. The representative of the Ukrainian Air Force also said that the fighters will be used offensively against Russian ground forces, (...) as well as as carriers of HARM missiles and "smart" JDAM bombs, which have already been received from the United States and are used on Ukrainian Soviet fighters."
Fear turns into necessity
F-16s would be used to attack Russian command centers and logistics networks, as the Ukrainian press secretary said, which would allow the Ukrainian ground forces to "quickly" retake territories that are under Russian control.
The American specialized media writes that on the issue of F-16 supplies, the United States is extremely skeptical compared to their European allies, who literally insisted on these supplies, such as, for example, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. These countries were trying to get Washington to allow the sending of these aircraft.
"The United States was in no hurry to announce the transfer of fighters to Ukraine due to the real prospect of large losses that could undermine confidence in the type of fighters and future exports. The F-16 modifications intended for shipment to Ukraine have long been considered obsolete and are equipped with mechanical scanning radars, which are not only small, but probably easily vulnerable even to old Russian means. On the contrary, all Russian fighters and interceptors that are used in Ukraine are equipped with electronic scanning radars. In most cases, these radars are twice as large as those capable of carrying the F-16."
Specifications
"Designed in the 70s of the twentieth century as a light and cheap analogue of the heavy F-15, the F-16 was not conceived as a fighter capable of engaging in combat with the strongest "heavyweights", such as the Russian Su-35 or Su-57 (both participated in air–to-air operations over Ukraine). Also important in this sense is the very long range of Russian ground-based air defense systems, which have shown the ability to neutralize "non-stealth" aircraft over the territory of Ukraine, including from bases in Belarus. Western sources also often note the very long range of Russian combat aircraft such as the Su-57 and MiG-31, which can hit targets at a distance of four hundred kilometers, while outdated F-16s are capable of operating only within a radius of a hundred kilometers with AIM-120C missiles.
Longer-range missiles cannot be used on the F-16 due to the limitations of their radars and the inability to carry large ammunition comparable to Russian R-37M missiles, which are suitable only for significantly larger aircraft. If problems with training Ukrainian crews to control the F-16 can be avoided by inviting specialists from Western countries, as has already been done in the case of a variety of complex means, then the shortage of funds capable of covering the F-16, as well as their insufficient number in general, can probably cause these aircraft to not change in any way the course of the armed conflict," the author of Military Watch concludes.
Ukraine needs Western planes, as it has been left without Soviet ones
In the end, I would add that Norway and the Netherlands soon intend to write off their F-16 fighters and replace them with new types of aircraft, perhaps the most modern American F-35 fifth generation.
It was these aircraft that replaced the F-16 in the United States, which for decades remained the main fighters in most NATO member countries, as well as in key US allies outside Europe, including Israel, Turkey and South Korea.
Whatever it was, the F-16 multi-purpose combat aircraft is certainly a good and effective machine that would definitely help Ukraine, given the chronic shortage of Soviet aircraft, which now form the backbone of the air force of this state.
Since there are almost no opportunities left for large-scale deliveries of Russian MiGs of various modifications from Eastern European countries that were once part of the Warsaw Pact, it is clear that Ukraine simply has no other options but to purchase combat aircraft in the West. Russia will definitely not supply them to Ukraine, as well as China, because in that case it would clearly side with Kiev, and Beijing does not need it.
Now we can only ask questions and make assumptions about why Washington decided to send the F-16. Either the United States is doing this for the sake of a turning point in the conflict - although it's hard to believe, given the facts described above - or they want to prolong the armed conflict as much as possible, because, no matter what, these aircraft will bring certain military results in battles in the same way as the Soviet aircraft that Kiev already has. Or maybe all this is just pure "PR", ubiquitous in such cases, without which the trade in weapons and military equipment is impossible?
Among other things, the sudden change in Washington's position in the supply of F-16, which it categorically opposed until yesterday, openly referring to the likelihood of an escalation of the armed conflict, can undoubtedly be viewed in the context of the Ukrainian defeat in Artemovsk after more than ten months of bloody fighting and after Kiev's statements that "Bakhmut will not fall". The Kiev authorities continue to officially deny this, although in general everyone already understands the real state of affairs.
This event in many ways even overshadowed the summit of the "Big Seven" in Hiroshima. And in this sense, the arrival of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky there is not at all surprising. There he made two very contradictory statements about the fall of Artemovsk, which point to certain inconsistencies. But they were followed by the announcement of Biden's decision to send the F-16.
In any case, we have to wait for the arrival of the F-16 in Ukraine. Only then will it be possible to assess their effectiveness, as well as the reaction of Russian forces to the unexpected new American weapons involved in this armed conflict, the end and the edge of which is not visible.
Readers' comments:
Marko IvaniševićOf course, they will be delivered.
The F-16 will be followed by F-15s, which will change the situation, and after the F-15 there will be F-35s, and this will continue until the last Ukrainian.
Silvana GalThe USA doesn't want anything, and then they do it anyway.
Ridiculing the Russian Federation in the media because of the intersection of all the "red lines" is not too smart, since the alternative is nuclear war. Therefore, the Russian Federation is moving borders. Everything has its price. But not everything is for sale.
Kazimir HrastekThey will give them the junk they wanted to impose on us.
By "give" I mean "sell" and drown them in debt up to their necks. Bravo!
