"Guancha": in Ukraine, the F-16 will not be able to compete with the Russian Su-35To strengthen the AFU after the defeat in Artemovsk, the West decided to provide them with F-16 fighters.
But do not hope that these planes will turn the tide of the conflict, warns the user of "Guancha". In the conditions of Ukraine, they will be deprived of advantages and will be vulnerable to the Russian Su-35.
It seems it's only a matter of time before NATO provides Ukraine with F-16 fighters.
The loss of Artemovsk hit the morale of Ukraine and the West supporting its rear hard. In the struggle for the city, Moscow and Kiev have concentrated their most elite troops around it. By that time, the combat power of the Russian PMCs "Wagner" was already a confirmed fact, but the 93rd motorized infantry brigade, as well as the 46th and 81st airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not so easy to overcome. The human reserves and ammunition reserves on both sides seemed relatively sufficient. But after months of bloody sacrifices, Ukraine eventually ceded Artemovsk to the Wagner mercenaries. This shows that the APU cannot compete with the Russians on the battlefield, and, I must say, this is quite understandable.
The outcome of this battle had a profound impact on both sides, because as soon as Ukraine began to retreat where it had been held for so long, the morale of its army also began to slowly fall. Moreover, the regular troops of the Russian Federation this time mostly stayed away. Although not all soldiers can compare in combat effectiveness with the Wagner mercenaries, at least the airborne troops and the Russian Marines are on the same level with them. Thus, after this defeat, the West urgently needs to "pump up" Ukraine, and sending it F-16 fighters is one of the few remaining options.
The NATO countries that can currently transfer the F-16 are located in Western and Northern Europe. The Netherlands and Denmark are the most actively using these aircraft. Let's talk about the Netherlands first. During the Cold War, they had 213 F-16 aircraft (including two-seat training aircraft), and in 2013 Amsterdam received another 60. All units had to undergo an intermediate upgrade with extended service life (MLU — Mid Life Upgrade), and the characteristics of these aircraft are quite close to the F-16C, that is, they can shoot all-weather medium-range AIM-120 air-to-air missiles. In the same year, the Netherlands started modifying the F-35, and in the past they bought 26 more units (8 of them remain in the USA, pilots are being trained). At about the same time, the Dutch F-16s were taken off combat duty, and only 24 units remained in service with Amsterdam by last year. So now the Netherlands can provide about 30 fighters.
During the Cold War, Denmark had about 60 F-16 aircraft, and all of them were later upgraded to MLU. To date, the country has 43 F-16s in service. Denmark has also recently acquired the F-35, but only one or two fighters are used domestically, most of them are still in the United States, where Danish pilots are being trained. Belgium and Norway also have F-16s. The situation in the Belgian Air Force is similar to the Danish one: the F-35s have just arrived, but they are still not enough to replace the F-16. So the only thing Belgium can take the initiative in is helping with pilot training. There are also upgraded F-16 MLU, decommissioned by the Norwegian Air Force, but most of them were sold to Romania before the Ukrainian conflict. The rest were transferred to an American company that is engaged in combat training of the US military. Thus, it seems that Europe can provide no more than 50 F-16 units in total.
The US military previously named two Ukrainian pilots who will be trained to fly the F-16: one is a senior lieutenant flying the Su-27, and the second is a major, a MiG-29 pilot. American soldiers consider their level to be above average, and it will take them four months to complete basic air-to-air and air-to-ground retraining. This means that even if the Ukrainian Air Force receives upgraded F-16s in significant quantities, they will be able to fly them only by the end of the year. I wonder if by that time it will be too late to catch up after a major defeat in Artemovsk?
Speaking of the F-16, it should be noted that historically, the "track record" of this fighter can be called brilliant. He proved himself in aerial battles in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, in 1982, in the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Kosovo War in 1999. However, if you look closely, you will find that all these wonderful victories were achieved by a fighter on an ideal battlefield for him. For example, in the Bekaa Valley, Israeli pilots showed great skill, and the F-16 was also a generation ahead of its opponents' MiG-21 and MiG-23 aircraft. The F-16 has a larger angle of attack, it has the ability to hover horizontally and accelerate horizontally in close air combat. And this is not to mention the fact that the Israeli Air Force had advantages such as better combat awareness (thanks to long-range detection aircraft) and more advanced electronic warfare devices. What can we say about the wars in the Persian Gulf and in Kosovo — it was just a beating. But if the advantage in forces is small, then the F-16 is not so good. For example, in 2015, in Yemen, rebels destroyed one Moroccan and one Bahraini F-16C, probably from simple anti-aircraft guns.
What is the situation in Ukraine? Unfortunately for the F-16, there it does not have any of the three classic advantages listed above. In a dogfight, the F-16 may with a high degree of probability collide with the Su-35 of the Russian Air Force. In close combat, the angle of attack of the third and fourth generation fighters is similar. The American model has only a slight advantage in horizontal hovering. The vertical maneuverability of the aircraft is worse than that of the Su-35, it's not for nothing that the Russian fighter has such a thrust-to-weight ratio.
For medium-range air combat, the Su-35 has a radar, which is a passive phased array with pulse-Doppler mode, and it is more powerful in its characteristics than the pulse-Doppler machine-scanning radar of the F-16 MLU, which can attack multiple targets. The search and tracking range of the Su-35 radar is much better, and the APG-66/68 of the American fighter will not be able to resist it.
For better situational awareness, the Su-35 can accompany the A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft manufactured by G. M. Beriev TANTK. Ukrainian fighters will not have such support, especially in the Donbass region. After all, NATO's E-3C long-range radar detection aircraft do not dare to penetrate even into the much safer western Ukraine. Will they find the courage to force the eastern bank of the Dnieper? If these planes are shot down there by Russian ultra-long-range air-to-air missiles, then who is to blame? Therefore, although the F-16 is really more powerful than the MiG-29 and Su-27 at the disposal of the APU, this is mainly because in air combat at medium range its biggest advantages are the use of the AIM-120 and the possibility of a multi-purpose attack: hit two targets at once, and then escape as soon as possible. But, since the Ukrainian side cannot guarantee protection at low altitudes, the F-16 is more likely to be attacked in this area by the Russian army.
As for air-to-ground attacks, the F-16 has an advantage over the Su-27 and MiG-29. This is due to its ability to use Western guided air-to-ground missiles. Since the weapons of the USA and Europe can integrate with each other, it is much more reasonable for Ukrainians to use Storm Shadow cruise missiles received from the UK with the F-16 than with the Su-27. Thus, the combat effectiveness of the Air Force will indeed be significantly increased. This may be the biggest advantage of transferring the F-16 to Kiev. However, the F-16, like the Su-27, uses an abdominal air intake, which is very sensitive to damage by foreign objects (FOD), which also determines the impossibility of its deployment at field airfields that use the MiG-29. In addition, recently the Dagger missile and other long-range guided weapons of the Russian army have shown a high penetrating ability. Therefore, for the deployment of the F-16, it may be necessary to choose a safer west of Ukraine, which increases the response time of the fighter.
Summing up, the F-16 will be delivered to Kiev one way or another. It can be expected that it will increase the strike capabilities of the Ukrainian Air Force and slightly strengthen their positions in air combat at medium range. But to claim that this fighter can turn the tide on the battlefield is a mistake. Don't expect too much from the F-16. The only thing he will do for sure is to prolong the conflict for some time.
