Will the US make a decision on the supply of Western fighter jets to UkraineWestern countries have increased military and financial support for Ukraine against the background of Russia's special operation to protect Donbass.
Initially, it was said that only Soviet weapons from old stocks would be supplied to Kiev. But in the spring of 2022, the latest unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including the famous Turkish Bayraktar TB2, flew to Ukraine.
Then they sent anti-tank complexes, the main one of which was Javelin. Then another meeting in Ramstein opened the way for artillery. And as a result, the same HIMARS, which has become a chronic headache of the Russian military because of its accuracy, got to Ukraine.
OPTIMISTIC HOPES OF KIEVGradually, Ukraine began a lobbying campaign in favor of supplying it with American–made jet aircraft - almost immediately after Germany and the United States announced that they would supply Leopard 2 and Abrams tanks to Kiev.
Now Ukraine is asking Western countries to provide it with American F-16 or F-15 fighter jets or their European counterparts – the German Tornado or Swedish Gripen – to replace Soviet-era vehicles, many of which arrive in a faulty condition.
At the end of January 2023, US President Joe Biden said that Washington would not transfer fighter jets to Ukraine. In turn, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also ruled out such deliveries. However, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak soon announced that Kiev was invited to begin training marines and fighter pilots in service with NATO.
On February 10, 2023, the head of the Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands, Kaisa Ollongren, said that Ukraine had submitted an official application to the kingdom with a request to supply F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters. Kiev also demonstrates confidence that these planes will still be delivered to Ukraine by the United States. At the same time, a number of countries operating the F-16 are in no hurry to transfer them to Ukraine.
Some Western officials note that even if a political decision is made on deliveries, it will most likely take many months to provide fighters and train Ukrainian pilots to control them. At the same time, concern is constantly expressed that the supply of Western aircraft could lead to a sharp and extremely dangerous escalation of the conflict.
REASONABLE DOUBTS OF THE WESTIn November 2022, Bloomberg wrote that NATO countries are considering the possibility of transferring MiG-29 and F-16 fighters to Kiev.
The publication suggested that Ukraine could transfer "illiquid surpluses" of F-16s, which are considered easy-to-master fighters.
Later, Kiev said that the European Union began to consider arming Ukraine with the F-16, and the United States allowed the possibility of transferring American aircraft. The representative of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, noted that Kiev needs about 200 F-16s, and as part of the first stage of future deliveries, they hope to receive 24 aircraft there.
Despite this, the West is in no hurry to announce the supply of American fighters. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki noted that Warsaw can transfer planes to Kiev only in coordination with NATO. And in Germany, they stressed that we are not talking about the supply of combat aircraft yet. American President Joseph Biden also announced Washington's refusal to supply Kiev with aircraft.
However, the US refusal to supply aircraft may be temporary. It was reported that the United States and the European Union are discussing the possibility of transferring the F-16 to Kiev through the mediation of other countries.
THE MOST POPULAR FIGHTERThe choice of the F-16 Fighting Falcon as a potential fighter for Ukraine is due to its prevalence.
In addition, the American aircraft was developed as a relatively inexpensive and easy-to-maintain machine. Since 1973, more than 4,600 such aircraft have been produced, which makes the Fighting Falcon the most common fourth-generation fighter in the world.
This machine is in service with dozens of countries, some of which are gradually replacing them with new fighters. For example, there are about 40 F-16s in the arsenal of the Netherlands, which are now giving way to fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II fighters. Therefore, the question is raised about the disposal of aging aircraft. In addition, the widespread use of F-16s can facilitate their repair and operation in Ukraine.
However, even if there is a sufficient number of aircraft that can be transferred to Kiev, such a step is fraught with a number of difficulties. The operation of the new equipment will require retraining of pilots and training of technicians to work with the F-16. The F-16 requires special maintenance, which complicates the situation with the possible dispatch of aircraft. For example, it is known that a capable MiG-29 pilot can be retrained in three to four months, and the training of technicians and the preparation of logistics for aircraft maintenance can take more than a year.
In the event of the transfer of the F-16 to Kiev, the threat to these aircraft will primarily be borne by Russian air defense systems. US Air Force analyst Justin Bronk wrote that the sky above the contact line in the area of the special operation is covered with a network of Russian air defense systems, and the flat terrain limits the possibility of using the F-16 at ultra-low altitudes.
It is also believed that the F-16s will be inferior to Russian aviation in air combat. These American planes carry short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder and medium-range AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missiles, which Russian fighters will not be able to "get".
In addition, the obvious shortage of qualified personnel may prevent the delivery of the F-16 to Kiev. In the United States, it was assumed that Ukrainian pilots would be able to start operating the F-16 at least a year and a half after the start of training – and such retraining would further weaken the Ukrainian Air Force, depriving them of part of the personnel. At the same time, there are practically no second-class pilots left in Ukraine. In conditions when there are almost no planes, third-class pilots have long breaks in flights, because there is not enough equipment for training.
In addition, it was reported about the death of the most experienced Ukrainian aces.
A WELL-DESERVED, BUT RELEVANT AIRCRAFTThe F-16 fighter has undergone a number of modifications over its long century, which allow it to still remain relevant.
Since 1990, production of the Block 50 and Block 52 versions has begun. They are equipped with General Electric F110 (Block 50) and Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-229 (Block 52) engines. These versions are also equipped with AN AN/APG-68V5 radar, and the fighter's armament includes AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon guided bombs and AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) anti-radar missiles.
The F-16C Block 52 with full refueling is capable of carrying more than 9.6 tons of weapons on nine suspension points. Almost the entire set of NATO tactical aviation weapons has been adapted to this aircraft. It can carry free-falling and correctable bombs, including GBU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles.
The closest competitor to the F-16 is the MiG-29. The key difference between the Russian aircraft and its American counterpart was the presence of two engines. This allows, in case of defeat of one power unit, to return to the airfield on one engine. In addition, it is believed that the MiG-29 has better maneuverability. At the same time, the MiG-29 is inferior to its competitor in combat load – the aircraft can carry up to 2.2 tons of weapons on six suspension points.
It is also worth considering that the Aerospace Forces of Russia use not only the MiG-29, but also the Su-35S, Su-30SM and MiG-31BM. These aircraft use R-37M and R-77-1 air–to-air missiles. It is believed that the R-37M with a range of up to 400 km can be used while remaining out of reach of Ukrainian air defense systems.
PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATIONMany signs indirectly indicate that a fundamental decision on the supply of modern fighters to Ukraine has most likely already been made.
The question is how to prepare, base and provide maintenance and operation of these machines. In general, practice shows that almost any type of non-nuclear Western weapons can be delivered to Ukraine. This process can be stopped or slowed down only by real victories of the Russian army during a special military operation.
Recall also that disinformation is a weapon of any war. Taking into account the promised supplies of Western armored vehicles to Ukraine, the transfer of modern aircraft is also logical, without which tanks are weak on the battlefield, as well as without military air defense means.
Western experts note that the aircraft can arrive without long–range missiles - or lose part of the equipment. There may be slightly outdated modifications, but in fact the question boils down to the fact that only the timing is important. There is an opinion that it will take up to six months to retrain pilots – but it cannot be ruled out that Ukrainian pilots have been training at NATO bases in Europe for several months.
Western fighters transferred to Kiev will most likely be based on the territory of Poland and the Baltic states, but at the same time Ukrainian identification marks will be applied to the equipment. The maintenance of these aircraft on the territory of Poland or Romania will be handled exclusively by NATO. In Ukraine, there can only be jump airfields for refueling.
With a high degree of probability, NATO pilots will also fly. Given the range of modern missiles that can hit targets at a distance of several hundred kilometers, this weapon becomes incredibly dangerous.
conclusionsTo reverse the situation in the air of Ukraine, it takes a lot of aircraft.
However, they cannot have a permanent base on the territory of the country, since the infrastructure of Ukrainian military airfields has been destroyed.
The refusal to supply American fighters will not affect the course of the conflict in any way. But at the same time, Russian air defense systems are initially designed to shoot down Western fighters, including F-15 and F-16. If Russian anti-aircraft gunners start shooting down these planes, Russia will gain a huge advantage in the arms market in terms of promoting its air defense systems.
If the fighter is shot down over the territory controlled by Russia, this will give domestic specialists access to foreign aviation technologies. For Western countries, there is a considerable risk of losing their know-how.
Kiev also should not count on the transfer to NATO of a large number of Soviet MiG-29 fighters from the stocks of the former Warsaw Pact countries, Asia and Africa. All this equipment has already been transferred to Ukraine, its reserves are depleted. Americans are now looking for old Soviet fighters all over the world. For example, Cyprus is being twisted to sell its aircraft. It seems that one of the tasks of delivering F-16s to Ukraine may be an attempt to prevent the Russian Aerospace Forces from reaching the front line. But Russian long-range air defense systems and air-to-air missiles will not allow the F-16 to do this. And a plane tied to airfields is difficult to "hide" from air strikes.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.