The United States insists that the F-16 fighters transferred to Ukraine should be located on the territory of the country itself. The expert community notes that the local infrastructure will cope with the reception of aircraft, and the problem with maintenance, although costly, can also be overcome. Therefore, the question now arises what Russia needs to do to counter the new threat. US Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said this week that the F-16 fighter-bombers will be based in Ukraine after the transfer to Kiev from Western countries.
So he answered the question about the possibility of placing these aircraft on the territory of one of the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Earlier, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrel, called the G7 decision to send F-16 fighters to Ukraine a "very good idea." According to him, Ukrainian pilots are being trained in several countries to fly on airplanes – and Kiev will soon have them at its disposal.
For the first time, the US agreement to supply fighter jets to Ukraine became known at the end of last week. According to the US President's national security adviser Jake Sullivan, the United States will decide in the coming months who and in what quantity will deliver these aircraft to Kiev. Biden himself announced at the G7 summit in Hiroshima that the United States would join the F-16 coalition.
After the summit, British and Dutch Prime Ministers Rishi Sunak and Mark Rutte announced that they had agreed to create an "international coalition" to provide fighter jets to Ukraine.
Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov said on this occasion that Washington has tightened its approach in preparation for sending F-16 fighters to the Kiev regime. According to him, the United States has completely subordinated the G7 participants to its own line regarding the conflict in Ukraine. The ambassador admitted that these fighters would take off "from NATO airfields", controlled by foreign "volunteers".
The expert community believes that the issue of transferring the F-16 to Ukraine has already been resolved, it remains only to clarify the delivery dates and their quantitative characteristics. "I think Ukraine already has infrastructure, aviation bases and airfields ready to accept F-16s in small quantities. The runways are suitable in length and width, in the strength of concrete, refueling stations," notes the Honored Military Pilot of the Russian Federation, retired Major General Vladimir Popov. He does not exclude that
technical issues of an "infrastructural nature" may be a problem for the transfer of the F-16,
such as a system of electric power cables, which according to the nomenclature are necessary for fighters. "For Western technology, it is very important to provide electricity, fuel, gases, including nitrogen, oxygen and in some cases hydrogen. These are various fittings, forks. In the USA, approaches, technical execution and technologies are different," Popov explains.
"At the same time, I don't think that someone was preparing Ukraine to receive dozens of F-16s. The country cannot be prepared in the conditions of constant bombing and periodic attacks inflicted by us. We hit airfields once or twice a month. And in recent months we have even carried out massive raids, including at night," Popov said.
According to him, first of all, runways, warehouses with fuel and lubricants, arsenals of storage, repair and distribution of aviation missile and bomb systems and weapons fall under Russian strikes. "Try to organize everything in a balanced way in these conditions and do it. It is very expensive and it was necessary to start preparing from the beginning of the year, and maybe even earlier," the expert says.
According to the interlocutor, the Americans will have to deliver various equipment to Ukraine, make adapters, transformers and other technical devices. "The United States will have to bring F-16 airfield support equipment to Ukraine. And the question is, what will be the costs if, say, two dozen F-16s are handed over to Kiev ... How will they organize, maintain, provide and prepare aircraft for each combat flight? This is a significant headache. Yes, it is solvable, but not so fast, not today," the expert adds.
However, military expert Yuri Knutov does not see a serious problem in creating infrastructure for receiving and servicing the F-16, which is "capable of taking off and landing on a section of expressways." "I have no doubt that these aircraft can be used from existing airfields. Even public roads are used as runways, and settlements are used as bases and maintenance sites. At one time, Egypt acted in this way, their service airfields were almost in Berber villages, it was difficult to detect these planes," Knutov emphasizes.
In addition, F-16 fighters have repeatedly flown to Ukraine and participated in joint exercises, patrolled the sky during the European Football Championship in 2012, landed at local airfields. According to the interlocutor, Ukraine can place two or three fighters at one airfield and "thus it will be difficult to detect and destroy them at their bases."
"For the enemy, the main problem is to recruit the right number of technicians and mechanics who will service these aircraft. I think that NATO military personnel will be seconded by order," Knutov suggested.
Popov agrees that Ukraine lacks highly qualified specialists who should prepare the F-16 for departure. And to protect Western fighters from possible attacks from Russia, caponiers can be used, as well as massive iron-concrete arch-type shelters that have existed in the country since Soviet times. "In recent years, these buildings have been abandoned, they need to be restored. They are in a conditionally operable condition, they have retained their strength characteristics," the Major General recalled.
Knutov is convinced that Ukraine will not hide American fighters in caponiers, which "actually give out the location of the aircraft." "To date, cruise missiles and other means of destruction penetrate any caponier. But if the parking lot is disguised as a warehouse or a workshop, then it will be much more difficult to detect it. I see the real use of these aircraft from airfields on the territory of Ukraine. The supply of fuel and ammunition can also be masked," the source explains.
Popov also estimated the probability of basing American aircraft transferred to Ukraine at airfields in Poland, Romania or Slovakia. According to him, if additional mounted fuel tanks are used, the combat radius can be increased to 2.5 thousand kilometers.
"But functionally, such aircraft will be an easy target at the stage of a route flight
with full refueled tanks, with suspended missiles or bomb weapons. During the threatened period, they will be forced to dump these tanks in order to maneuver and evade missile attacks by air defense systems and fighter aircraft of Russia," he believes.
If Ukraine starts using the tactics of intensive firing as part of massive fighter air groups, then "we will use launches of hypersonic Daggers and Zircons, which will be blown up in the air, creating a flight restriction zone." "We understand that this is a threat to us. The F-16 is a great combat potential. Among light fighters, this is one of the world's best examples of aviation technology," the expert admits.
Russia will also have to disorganize the use of airspace on the approaches to the contact line. "F-16s will not always be able to fly beautifully to our borders. And Ukrainians and NATO members will lose their funds quite intensively," Popov is sure.
According to him, Ukraine will receive the first F-16s at best by autumn or by the end of the year. He is convinced that, most likely, the first machines will be placed at operational airfields of neighboring countries with Ukraine, primarily in the eastern part of Poland and Romania, "since it is necessary to cover the operational and tactical depth - Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions, as well as Lviv, Kiev and Volyn regions," the interlocutor explains.
Knutov adds that the combat radius of the F-16 is about 1.7 thousand kilometers and theoretically this is enough to make a combat departure from foreign airfields. "Our A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft are in the air almost around the clock. Such takeoffs and landings from the territory of Poland, Slovakia and Romania can also be detected by our satellites and long–range radars," the expert believes.
Knutov is convinced that "it is unlikely that we will look indifferently at the fact that NATO uses aviation against us." To counter these aircraft in the skies over Ukraine, Russia can use the Su-30, Su-35, S-300PM-2, S-350 Vityaz, S-400 and S-400V4 anti-aircraft systems. "About six months ago, our long-range anti-aircraft missile system destroyed the Ukrainian Su-27 at a distance of about 300 kilometers. For today, this is a record for the destruction of combat aircraft," Knutov recalled.
A similar point of view is shared by the authors of the Telegram channel "The View of a man in lamps", who believe that the supply of F-16 is "the tip of the iceberg": "Fighters are just the tip of a spear, the tip of a large-scale infrastructure of war.
It is impossible to simply land them somewhere on the runway near Kiev and leave them there, from time to time releasing them on combat missions.
In general, in order for two and a half dozen fighters to work fully, they need to be serviced daily with the help of qualified personnel, and in large numbers. We are talking about hundreds and thousands of people. CNN sources claim that the training of technical personnel "may take months or years, depending on the level of training."
At the same time, one hour of F-16 flight requires 16 hours of its maintenance. The aircraft will need to repair and rebuild the entire airfield infrastructure. At least at those airfields where these F-16s will be based. They also need new spare parts and fuel supply systems, communication and management systems.
"Most likely, work on the creation of this infrastructure in Ukraine has either already begun, or will begin in the near future. Because without it, the F-16 is just a beautiful and meaningless picture. To detect and destroy all this infrastructure will be one of the main tasks of the Russian Armed Forces. There is no doubt that both our intelligence and our high–precision long-range missile systems must cope with this," the authors summarize.
Andrey Rezchikov
