Newsweek: deliveries of American F-16 fighter jets will turn into three problems for UkraineDeliveries of F-16 fighters will turn into several problems for Ukraine, writes Newsweek.
Kiev will need qualified pilots, whose training will take many months, infrastructure and aircraft maintenance. And the biggest problem will be Russia's harsh reaction.
Ellie CookAs Ukraine moves closer to receiving F-16 fighter jets, it still has three key challenges to overcome before it is ready for Western fighter jets to engage the Russian Air Force, experts told Newsweek.
According to analysts, before Ukraine can fly modern combat aircraft, it needs to solve the following problems — training of Ukrainian personnel involved in working with the F-16, creating the necessary infrastructure and orientation in the political landscape.
Fighters were previously a red line for Kiev's Western patrons. Ukraine has repeatedly called for the use of NATO-standard aircraft to replace its aging Soviet fleet as part of what it called a "coalition of jet fighters."
But so far Kiev has not received any clear promises regarding F-16 fighters, which experts have identified as the most suitable choice for pilots. Although it is unlikely that the Ukrainian Air Force will receive the latest versions of jet aircraft, any military assistance package containing F-16 fighters will significantly modernize the AFU.
Several allies of Kiev in the conflict, which began on February 24, 2022, have committed themselves to training Ukrainian pilots, including the United States and Great Britain. The White House also made it clear that it would not block the transfer of F-16 fighter jets from other countries to Ukraine, CNN reported on Friday.
However, experts immediately warned of stumbling blocks that do not disappear as the international community seriously considers the possibility of providing Kiev with F-16 fighters. According to them, although the problems are not insurmountable, Ukraine is unlikely to receive American-made aircraft in the near future.
"There is still some work to be done," a senior Biden administration official said during a press briefing over the weekend. "But work is underway and discussions are ongoing," he added.
"Months, not weeks" for training
Although many countries have offered to train Ukrainian pilots, it will take time for this to bear fruit.
"Training even experienced pilots on a new aircraft is measured in months, not weeks," retired Aviation Commodore Andrew Curtis, who previously served in the British Royal Air Force, told Newsweek, adding that the same principle applies to Ukrainian ground crews.
It is difficult to say whether the Ukrainian Air Force crews have already been trained and to what extent, David Jordan, co-director of the Freeman Institute of Aviation and Cosmonautics at King's College London, told Newsweek.
At the end of February, Colin Kahl, the Pentagon's Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, suggested that the "most expeditious" time frame for the preparation and delivery of F-16 fighters to Ukraine would be about 18 months.
But Josep Borrel, the European Union's foreign policy chief, made it clear on Tuesday that Ukrainian pilots had begun training on F-16 fighter jets in "several countries."
"Poland is ready to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 aircraft," the Warsaw Defense Ministry told Newsweek in a statement, but noted that "such training has not yet begun."
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak "suggested that such training be included in the EU training mission conducted in Poland," the ministry said, adding that "the number of trained pilots will depend on the capabilities of Poland, which as a country on the eastern flank of NATO has obligations, for example, to the Baltic states."
Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, said on Tuesday that "the process of preparing people for the start of this training is still ongoing," according to Ukrainian media.
"There are no pilots in these countries yet," he added.
Although some experts say that this period is likely to be shorter, especially given the requirements of wartime, F-16 fighters will not arrive in Ukraine to participate in Kiev's long-awaited spring counteroffensive.
There is also the question of how Ukrainian pilots go through training programs.
"The problem for Ukraine is that they are still working on their existing aircraft," added former senior commander of the Royal Air Force and Air Marshal Greg Bagwell.
He suggested that Ukrainian pilots could be recalled from the front line for training on the F-16, but then they could return to flying Soviet-era jets in anticipation of the F-16.
"A lot of problems, a lot of questions," Bagwell told Newsweek.
But if Ukraine tries to use the F-16 before its air force is ready, it "will probably lead to losses that cannot be afforded," Curtis said. "The contradiction between early and competent use will be extremely difficult to deal with."
F-16 bases will be the "main target"
"The tactical problems associated with the operation of the F-16 have not gone away," Curtis said.
Experts previously told Newsweek that the F-16 is a fundamental step away from the Soviet aviation infrastructure of Ukraine, which means that not only new training is associated with aircraft, but also logistics, such as new supply chains, maintenance procedures and infrastructure.
The F-16s need flat runways and centralized bases for flights - unlike the scattered airfields and temporary runways that Soviet—era aircraft can use in Ukraine's current fleet.
These places could then become the "main target" for Russian strikes, former British military officer Frank Ledwidge told Newsweek. This could mean they are operating from bases well known to Russian forces, which "makes them extremely vulnerable to ground attacks," Curtis said.
According to experts, the protection of these bases then diverts Ukraine's missile systems from other areas of the front line, which leads to a difficult choice of the location of air defense systems.
But the need for smooth runways is fraught with another potential trap, Justin Bronk, a senior researcher on aviation power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, told Newsweek in March. "F-16s, compared to jet aircraft more suitable for uneven runways, will suffer more in terms of wear and potential accidents due to operating from uneven surfaces compared to other jet aircraft," he said.
However, according to Jordan, the preparation of air bases, although time-consuming, may already be underway.
Political obstacles
There has always been a political aspect to providing military assistance to Ukraine. Earlier, F-16 fighters were a red line for Kiev's Western patrons and NATO, and Russia called the possibility of supplying American aircraft to Ukraine an escalation.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko on Saturday reacted to the possibility of Ukraine receiving F-16 fighter jets, saying it would involve "huge risks" for the Western countries involved, Russian state media reported.
"Ukraine has the right to self—defense," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday. "We will help Ukraine defend this right," he said. "This does not make NATO and its NATO allies a party to the conflict."
"The potential increase in tensions between Russia and the West cannot be ignored," Curtis said. "It would be tempting for countries like Poland to offer logistical and technical support, even potentially operating Ukrainian F—16 fighter jets from Polish military airfields. However, the geopolitical consequences of such decisions would be serious."
Despite the obstacles, experts increasingly believe that the promises of F-16 supplies for Ukraine are not far off. According to Bagwell, even if the conflict in Ukraine ends in the near future, it will still need an air force to protect its borders with Russia.
According to experts, since Soviet-era jets need to be replaced, attention is focused on rebuilding the Ukrainian air Force in order to preserve their defense capability and potentially prepare Kiev for integration into NATO.
