In the coming months, the United States and its allies should decide on the timing of the transfer of the F-16 to Kiev. Now the parties are discussing how many cars to put. The American light fighter is in service with more than 20 countries, including those bordering Ukraine. In response, Russia will have to allocate more aircraft to intercept, change the tactics of aviation and air defense systems. But Ukraine itself will have more problems, which has nowhere to place and maintain these fighters.National Security Adviser to the US President Jake Sullivan said that the United States and its allies, during the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 Falcon fighters, will decide in the coming months who and in what quantity will deliver these aircraft to Kiev.
According to him, Western countries have already moved on to discussing the topic of strengthening the Ukrainian Air Force under the auspices of a "long-term commitment to Ukraine's self-defense." [...]
"We intend to do everything to support Ukraine, which seeks to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. At the same time, we intend to do so in order to avoid the outbreak of World War III," Sullivan said.
This statement came after President Joe Biden told G7 leaders on Friday that the United States would support efforts to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. In February, Biden said that Ukraine does not need the F-16.
Lockheed Martin, an American manufacturer of military equipment, claims that more than three thousand F-16s are in service in 25 countries. France and Poland have officially expressed their readiness to provide Ukraine with modern fighters. But any transfer of American-made aircraft requires permission from the US government. A senior Pentagon official, Colin Kahl, previously told Congress that training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 could take "about 18 months." However, the program can be shortened to six to nine months, depending on the general level of training and knowledge about fighters.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated Kiev's need for F-16 aircraft. These light fighters can fly at twice the speed of sound and are capable of hitting targets in the air and on the ground. According to the American press, Ukraine expects to receive from 40 to 50 F-16s to form three or four squadrons. Zelensky intended to discuss this issue on Saturday at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, as well as at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July.
Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko immediately responded to the West's plans to transfer fighters to Ukraine, who said that Moscow "has all the necessary means to achieve its goals." According to him, the West is still sticking to the escalation scenario, which is risky for itself.
In turn, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova told the Zvezda channel that the United States is engaged in pseudo-humanism and misleading, saying that they will supply F-16s only on condition that Ukraine will not use them for strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation. She noted that Sullivan's words about such conditions of F-16 deliveries do not comply with either international law or domestic legislation. "The United States is again doing what they love – imitating or manipulating data in order to achieve their own goals and objectives," Zakharova believes.
The expert community notes that the F-16 has long established itself as a universal platform capable of carrying a variety of weapons and equipment, but in the conditions of Ukrainian realities, it will be impossible to fully unlock the potential of the machine.
If Kiev decides to use this fighter to strike with British-French Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which are now being installed on outdated Su-24s, then for the Armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) such a task is within its capabilities. According to Sergey Denisentsev, an expert at the Center for Analysis, Strategies and Technologies, much will depend on which modification of the F-16 may appear in Ukraine. "Any radar station can be installed on this aircraft, including the most modern one with an active phased array antenna," the expert explained.
During the Cold War, the F-16 was conceived as a front-line fighter for NATO countries, but over several decades the car was adapted to new conditions. The aircraft can solve tasks not only shock, but also air defense, interception of targets, control of airspace. "If Ukraine is supplied with a modification of the F-16 with the latest generation radar, then it will be possible to say that the main task for the aircraft will be to control the airspace, for example, over the Crimea. If there is no radar, then the aircraft can be sharpened under the carrier of Storm Shadow cruise missiles or American HARM anti–radar missiles," Denisentsev did not rule out.
"Now there is some kind of bargaining, who should supply how many fighters to Ukraine. The Americans do not want supplies to be carried out directly from the United States, and insist that this should happen from other countries. Poland is already ready to supply the F-16, but requires a replacement for the F-35. All these twists and turns should be resolved in the very near future," said Sergey Khatylev, ex–head of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Moscow Air Defense Special Forces Command.
He is sure that the F-16 can act primarily in two guises – an interceptor or a bomber. "But Russia will have to react in any case, there will be overhead costs, including training pilots. It will be necessary to allocate more aircraft for possible interception, to change the tactical actions of aviation and air defense systems," the expert warns.
According to him, the F-16 does not have the capabilities of the Russian Su-34, which can be a bomber, an attack aircraft and an air defense fighter. "For example, during the combat departure of the F-16, it needs to be covered, they need to be controlled and struck. For the APU today, this is an unaffordable task. Yes, the planes can fly beautifully towards the Russian troops or our border, but on the turn they will be destroyed by the fire of anti-aircraft missile launchers or the impact of our long–range missiles," the expert is convinced.
Khatylev admitted that the position of Western countries on fighters is surprising to him. "Today it is almost impossible to land F-16s on Ukrainian airfields. To do this, the runways need to be completely re-equipped according to NATO standards. This applies to communication systems, control, refueling, etc. An aircraft outside the control zone is an ordinary piece of iron, on which at least Ivan Kozhedub or Alexander Pokryshkin should be put so that she can conduct an independent dogfight. Even if Ukraine has 60 or 100 F-16s, they will not solve this problem and will not make a splash," the expert is sure.
He does not exclude that the fighters transferred to Kiev will be deployed on the territory of Poland and Romania, where all the necessary infrastructure exists, but in this case the combat radius of their use, which is about a third of the maximum flight range, will decrease.
"The very appearance of the F-16 in Ukraine will not bring any significant shift towards some great victories. In order to use aviation, it is necessary to gain air superiority," Khatylev concluded.
Andrey Rezchikov
