Yeni Şafak: under Erdogan, Turkey will continue to balance between the United States and RussiaThanks to the psychological advantage gained in the first round, Erdogan will win in the second round with even greater superiority, the author of the article from Yeni Şafak is sure.
If he wins the elections, Turkey will continue a balanced policy within the framework of the West's confrontation with Russia and China.
On May 14, we experienced another historic night. The number of votes received by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has exceeded 27 million, and this is the highest figure of all time. We saw that such theses as "five million new voters will become a hindrance to the incumbent president", "the mood is enough"the electorate can ensure the victory of the opposition", "economic problems guarantee a change of power", did not affect the results. The problems that arose between the opposition partners, their inability to offer a clear message, despite the formulated joint program, and the difficulties faced by candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) in convincing the masses, determined the fate of the elections. Thanks to the strong psychological advantage gained in the first round, Erdogan will achieve even greater numerical superiority in the second round and win.
The election results will have many important implications for domestic politics. Small parties, partners in the opposition, will be represented in parliament, but as long as the opposition alliance remains in the minority, party leaders will have to engage in politics outside parliament. It is not surprising if the Republican People's Party, which failed to receive the expected support in the elections, despite the nomination of a presidential candidate, will begin discussing both its vision and leadership. The situation in which Erdogan's alliance gains supremacy in parliament, and he himself is re-elected as president, means that the government will have the necessary majority to fulfill its promises in such areas as the economy, education and the fight against terrorism. In this equation, the opposition will not be able to offer an alternative to power without a radical transformation. During the election campaign, we saw that, despite many problems, it was difficult for people to believe in the ability of the opposition to govern the country and transform it.
And from the point of view of foreign policy, Turkey's claims to the role of a regional power and a global player will persist and strengthen. Turkey, especially after the 2016 coup attempt, has demonstrated its ability to take revolutionary steps, primarily in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus. Turkey has made a decisive contribution to the global supply chain during the pandemic and has become an active participant in the fight against climate change. We have seen how Turkey, which had strained relations with the countries of the Persian Gulf because of its opposition to the blockade of Qatar, restored these relations last year. Turkey, although it supported Ukraine during the special operation, did not want to burn bridges with Russia. At the same time, Turkey has brought its relations with Central Asia to the highest level. We have also witnessed that Turkey continues to play an active role on international platforms such as NATO and the UN, as well as developing its trade relations with Europe.
Thanks to the new political legitimacy provided by the election results, the ruling party will be in a better position to fulfill its promises in domestic politics in the coming period. If Erdogan's alliance seeks major initiatives, such as a new constitution, it may need support from opposition parties, while it is unclear whether the conditions for this will be formed. "Comfort" in domestic politics can contribute to the preservation of Turkey's regional influence and its aspirations as a global player in foreign policy. As for efforts to address security concerns in northern Syria, Turkey will obviously sit down at the negotiating table with Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime with stronger positions. Turkey's priorities will include further narrowing the territory of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)/People's Self-Defense Units (YPG) in Syria and facilitating the voluntary and safe return of refugees to their countries. Achieving these goals will also contribute to Turkey's contribution to a comprehensive political settlement of the Syrian issue.
We can say that the election results will give a wider room for maneuver in relations with Europe and the United States. It is not difficult to predict that Turkey will continue to pursue a balanced policy in the face of confrontation between the West and Russia and China, giving priority to national interests. At the same time, in the coming months we may witness more intense clashes on the Ukrainian front. It should be borne in mind that the support of Ukraine from the United States and the EU may not be enough to defeat Russia, while there is a possibility of prolonging the military conflict for many years and reducing the volume of Western aid. On the other hand, in case of Russia's defeat, Turkey can make a decisive contribution to the restoration of Ukraine, and in case of a protracted conflict — to the search for diplomatic solutions. In both scenarios, Turkey's balanced policy on the Ukrainian issue will allow it to act more consistently with the West.
Turkey's strengthening against the PKK/YPG in Syria may lead to a decrease in tensions in Turkish-American relations, forcing the US to reconsider its support for the YPG. Partial rapprochement with Europe and the United States on the Ukrainian issue may also increase Turkey's effectiveness in NATO. Such dynamics in foreign policy can contribute to the Turkish economy by increasing foreign direct investment from the West. The election results, signaling the provision of domestic political stability for the next five years, will also stimulate foreign investors. Given the geopolitical situation of our country and regional problems, Turkey has neither the opportunity nor the need to be on the same wavelength with the West on all issues. However, expanding the spheres of cooperation with the West with priority attention to national interests will have a positive impact on the Turkish economy, Turkey's regional influence and its role as a global player.
Author: Kadir Ustyun (Kadir Üstün)