Ukraine continues to put pressure on Western countries regarding the supply of F-16 fighters. So, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky wants to make this issue the main issue at the summits of the "Big Seven" and NATO. What are the F-16s capable of in comparison with Russian aircraft, who will fly them and what tasks will the AFU command try to solve after receiving these machines? On Tuesday, Politico, citing the adviser to the head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Yuriy Saka, reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine expect to receive from 40 to 50 F-16 fighters from Western countries.
He clarified that the Ukrainian command intends to form three or four squadrons from these aircraft to protect the sky, because at the moment the country has "nothing to stop" Russian planes.
Sak added that Ukraine's air defense will not be complete without F-16 fighters, and noted that the country's President, Vladimir Zelensky, would like to make the issue of fighter supplies the main one at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, as well as at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July (by the beginning of which Zelensky plans to assemble "coalition fighters").
He also explained that although Italy, France, Britain and Germany do not have the F-16 at their disposal, however, these countries intend to call for supplies to the United States and Turkey. This, apparently, is what Germany has begun to do. So? The chairman of the Bundestag Defense Committee and representative of the Free Democratic Party in Germany, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmerman, opposed the supply of German fighters to Kiev.
According to her, neither Tornado nor Eurofighter fighters should be in the skies of Ukraine, primarily due to the range of the machine and the complexity of training. But at the same time, Strack-Zimmerman noted that Kiev should provide other types of aircraft, such as the Soviet-made MiG-29 or US-made F-16 fighters.
In turn, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Paris is ready to start training Ukrainian pilots right now. According to him, France can do this together with some other European countries that have expressed such readiness. He noted that discussions are still underway with the United States. At the same time, Macron did not confirm that the country is ready to supply Ukraine with military aircraft, noting that this remains theoretical talk.
And the coordinator of strategic communications at the US National Security Council, John Kirby, said that Washington still has no plans to transfer ATACMS tactical missiles and F-16 aircraft to Kiev. At the same time, earlier one of the pilots of the Russian Aerospace Forces, who is now taking part in the SVO, told the newspaper VZGLYAD that the aircraft of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are now controlled mostly by foreign mercenaries.
"As for the F-16 itself and the likelihood that these aircraft will be transferred, the technical characteristics of the F-16 are in no way superior to Russian fighters. However, it is important to understand that currently the aircraft acts primarily as a carrier of certain weapons. Thus, the features of the missiles that the machines will be equipped with are much more important," said the editor–in-chief of Avia.<url>" Roman Gusarov.
"Theoretically, the value of such supplies increases due to the news about the receipt of British Storm Shadow missiles by the APU. However, there is no need to panic: over the past year, Russian air defense systems have proven themselves extremely positively. We shoot down enemy planes regularly and efficiently. I don't think that the F-16 will be more dangerous in this regard," the expert notes.
"However, the question arises: who will take the helm of 50 cars. There is a severe shortage of professional pilots in Ukraine. Now some representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being trained in NATO countries, but it will not be possible to educate aces in six months. Of course, some of them will still get access to the F-16. But NATO pilots will also take to the air," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"Of course, 50 planes is quite a lot. However, I don't think they will be able to radically change the situation.
Firstly, in order to dominate the sky, the enemy must have a numerical advantage over us. It is difficult to say how many cars we will use, but fifty models are unlikely to allow the APU to feel like the majority," Gusarov emphasizes.
"Secondly, in relation to aviation, the maintenance of equipment plays a much more important role than its quantity. Ukraine does not have the necessary bases to repair the F-16. It is almost impossible to create them in such a short time. In this regard, the transfer of Soviet models to the APU looked more logical," the expert believes.
"Of course, Poland is nearby, and theoretically a scenario is possible when planes will be redirected to Warsaw for maintenance and refueling. But such intermediate "jumps" still reduce the effectiveness of the use of aviation," the interlocutor notes.
Gusarov suggested that the enemy, with the help of Western vehicles, would try to push the line of contact towards the borders of the Russian Federation until 2022. Also, according to the expert, the AFU will carry out strikes on military facilities that are not only at the front, but also in the rear.
"Ukraine wants to get exactly the F-16, because its characteristics are comparable to the MiG-29, and it will be easier for Ukrainian pilots to learn how to control these machines. In addition, the F-16 is even better in terms of operation, maneuverability and speed characteristics than the fifth-generation F-35 fighter–bomber," explained military expert Yuri Knutov.
"But I think the United States will oppose the supply of F-16s to Ukraine. This fighter has a fairly large export potential. In the US, he is positioned as a "killer of MiGs", based on the experience of the wars of the 80s in the Middle East. And there is nothing surprising in this, because in those wars aircraft of different generations were presented, and the "Americans" were younger," the interlocutor recalled.
"If the United States still decides to make such deliveries, then the APU will receive aircraft of the earliest modification without those innovations that correspond to the 4++ generation. Our SAMs and fighters will destroy them without any problems. However, even this in the States can be regarded as a blow to the image of the F-16 and the American military–industrial complex," he added.
"Why does Ukraine need the F-16? Firstly, to counteract our cruise missiles and drones.
Secondly, for remote control over the Black Sea. Thirdly, to help the ground forces on the contact line, including during the planned counteroffensive. The fourth goal is to replace the Soviet MiG–29 and Su-27, since Ukraine and other countries are running out of spare parts for them," the expert noted.
"Ukraine plans to launch Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles from the F-16. Also, with the F-16, Ukraine wants to use American guided high-precision GBU-39 aerial bombs. Thus, with the advent of the F-16, Ukraine will increase the number of high–precision long-range means used," the analyst detailed.
"They will be based in Ukraine, as well as in Poland and Slovakia. The planes will be used to support the troops in the counteroffensive. We also have a lot of options on how to shoot down the F-16. In addition to air defense, Su-30 and MiG-35 fighters can be used for this. In Syria, for example, in 2018, an F-16 was shot down by a Soviet S-200 air defense system. Our Soviet equipment has successfully "worked" on the F-16 before," the interlocutor recalled.
"The F-16 aircraft is generally not bad, in terms of tactical and technical characteristics it is compared with our Su-35. At the same time, our analogue is better in terms of target detection and takes a little more combat load. In addition, the American fighter is losing to ours in terms of maneuverability and speed," Andrei Krasnoperov, an instructor pilot, Air Force major, master of sports in aerobatics on jet aircraft, told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"Yes, the Western allies can transfer 40-50 fighters to Kiev, but who will fly them? The only option I see is to send crews to Ukraine along with the planes, but Kiev's allies are unlikely to do this. In order to retrain Ukrainian pilots to operate such machines, you need at least six months of training and knowledge of English at a high level," the interlocutor argues.
"In addition to pilots, it is also necessary to train maintenance personnel. In addition, the F-16 requires longer lanes for takeoff," he added. "Thus, in order to deprive Russia of air dominance, Ukraine needs not only Western aircraft, but also a whole staff of qualified specialists. Let's see how NATO will solve this problem," Krasnoperov believes.
Oleg Isaichenko