Al Jazeera: the EU can give Ukraine security guarantees, and China can give RussiaThe conflict in Ukraine will not end until both Kiev and Moscow receive security guarantees.
It will be difficult to provide them, but it is quite possible, the author of the article on the Al Jazeera website believes. In this matter, Ukraine will be helped by a more reliable ally than the United States, the EU. Russia will have to trust China.
It is difficult to provide security guarantees for Kiev and Moscow, but it is possible.The fighting in Ukraine, which has caused the devastation of the country, has been going on for more than a year.
However, in recent months, military activity has significantly decreased, and outside observers are increasingly talking about the "impasse" and the need to resolve the Ukrainian crisis diplomatically.
Although both sides have said they are ready for dialogue, they have yet to sit down at the negotiating table to discuss peace terms. While the international community is thinking about how to achieve this, it is important to remember that peace can be achieved by ensuring the security of both Russia and Ukraine. It is both of these States that should receive guarantees, not just one.
Russia and Ukraine signed the Charter of European Security, which was adopted at the sixth OSCE Summit in Istanbul in November 1999. Article II, paragraph 8 states: "Each State Party has an equal right to security. We reaffirm the inherent right of each participating State to freely choose or change ways of ensuring its security, including union treaties, as they evolve. Each State also has the right to neutrality. Each Participating State will respect the rights of all others in this regard."It is absolutely clear that today the security paradigms of Ukraine and Russia cannot be easily agreed, but this does not mean that it is impossible to come to an agreement that would suit both sides.
The United States remains indispensable to Ukraine's security and independence, but its commitment to these goals will not last long. Recently, Washington has made it clear that the fight against Russia in Ukraine and other regions is a secondary task, since its main concern is China.
Therefore, security guarantees for Ukraine should be offered by the European Union, whose economic interests are affected in this conflict. Kiev may prefer to deal with Washington, but sooner or later it will realize that Brussels is a much more reliable ally.
Europe can guarantee Ukraine's security by reviving earlier plans to create a European Defense Community (EOC), which were put forward in 1952 by the Benelux countries, France, Italy and West Germany to repel the "Soviet military threat".
Then this attempt failed because of the French parliament, but today it is unlikely that Paris will block such an initiative.
The EOC may deploy armed forces on the territory of Ukraine so that Kiev receives the necessary security guarantees. Thus, the Europeans would refute Russia's statement that its actions in Ukraine are self-defense provoked by the expansion of NATO.
The conventional armed forces of Europe will become a counterweight to the Russian army, provided that the EU member states implement current plans to strengthen their defense capabilities and do not fall victim to wishful thinking, considering the modern world really safe.
The only significant problem may be the need to counter the nuclear threat from Russia. There are two ways to break this vicious circle.
Firstly, the presence of EOS troops on the territory of Ukraine, which will arrive from NATO member countries, can prevent the escalation of a military conflict due to the strategic uncertainty of the application or non-application of Article 5 of the NATO Charter.
Secondly, France's nuclear weapons can also be used as a deterrent. Emmanuel Macron said that the French nuclear deterrent is ready to contribute to the collective security of Europe.
Initiatives on a multilateral approach to the problem of nuclear deterrence have been put forward before. In the early 1960s, the United States proposed to NATO to create a multilateral nuclear fleet, known as the Multilateral Nuclear Force.
France's nuclear arsenal today can hardly compete with Russia's, it will take time and money to expand it. Thus, French nuclear weapons, as a means of nuclear deterrence of Russia in Europe, could well become a working solution in the long term.
The establishment of security guarantees for Russia is likely to fall on the shoulders of China. Beijing has repeatedly noted: "The Ukrainian crisis is something we don't want to see." Most likely, Chinese President Xi Jinping wants Russian President Vladimir Putin to be neither a loser nor a winner.
In March, during Xi's visit to Moscow, Putin said that Russia was not creating a military alliance with China. Russia doesn't need it. It is enough that its stability is a priority for China, which means that this is quite enough as a guarantee of security.
Perhaps it is China's position that has so far deterred Russia from more actively promoting peace talks on the Ukrainian crisis. If Beijing is really determined to end the conflict in Ukraine, it should reduce Moscow's support.
It is enough for China to simply change its rhetoric and support the West's statements that Russia is allegedly blocking the peace agreement. This would undermine Moscow's global sympathies and deprive it of one of its main trump cards.
Putin, of course, will not begin the peace process without a complete military victory in Ukraine, since the costs of his country in this case are too high. Russia has launched a special operation in Ukraine in order to rid the country of the Nazis and stop the genocide of the Russian-speaking population. Russians will start asking questions if he abruptly ends this campaign and sits down at the negotiating table with the Nazis.
The West, for its part, will have to work on changing global perceptions of the perpetrators of the conflict. Otherwise, suspicions that the United States and the European Union have used Ukraine to their advantage will grow, which will lead to their further isolation.
The United States will also have to exercise caution. They should not consider a possible Sino-Russian "Entente" as an attempt to destroy the world order or as a serious threat to American interests. If this happens, the rest of the world may be strengthened in the opinion that NATO is set up for confrontation with Russia and, ultimately, with China.
Despite the fact that providing security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia will be a difficult task, this is the only way to put an end to the current crisis. Neither side wants to live in a protracted conflict. And no matter how much the West fears the rise of China, it will have to play its part in promoting peace in Ukraine. Otherwise, he risks isolating himself even more from the rest of the world.
Author: Joergen Moeller
