Geopolitika.news: mediation in the Ukrainian conflict will make China a world arbiterChina wants to become a mediator and successfully end the Ukrainian conflict, writes Geopolitika.news.
This will allow him to position himself as the main global player. He will become an arbiter who is able to solve the world's problems. The US does not want this under any circumstances.
Zoran MeterFrom the eighth to the twelfth of May, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang is conducting a mini-tour of Europe, and his plans include visits to Germany, France and Norway.
This tour is a continuation or a kind of Chinese response to the diplomatic "pilgrimage" of the leaders of some European Union countries, as well as the head of the European Commission to Beijing. So, for a short period (with the exception of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who came at the end of last year), Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, French President Emmanuel Macron visited the Chinese capital with a whole delegation of French businessmen in the company of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. But the planned visit of the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, was canceled allegedly because of his positive test for COVID-19.
Also announced is the visit to Beijing of Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni, who will soon have to make a difficult decision on the continuation or termination of Italy's participation in the Chinese project "One Belt and One Road", also known as the Silk Road. Italy is the only one participating in it out of all EU countries.
As for the visit of representatives of Norway (no matter how strange it may seem compared to the visits of Italians or Spaniards, and I'm not talking about the British), I assume Beijing wants to talk with Oslo about using the opportunities of the Northern Trade Route, which the Russian Federation is actively developing in cooperation with China. This route significantly reduces the route of Chinese and other East Asian goods to Europe, as well as to the east coast of North America.
Prevent collapse
All this clearly indicates that China and the European Union, as well as some EU members separately, primarily France, are trying to prevent a collapse that threatens their relations, although Washington sets the tone here, and London plays along with it. It is by no means a secret that the Biden administration requires the governments of allies in Europe to limit trade cooperation with China, primarily in the field of high technology.
In addition, in the doctrinal documents of the United States and the North Atlantic Alliance, China is called the main strategic rival in the XXI century. In addition, last year at the NATO summit in London, it was decided to expand the alliance's activities in the world and, above all, in Asia. This is a clear challenge to Beijing and China's regional and global interests.
The collapse of relations with China will be fatal for the EU
Thus, China and the European Union are now looking for, let's call it so, a "middle way" to continue trade cooperation that will satisfy the pressing interests of all, but at the same time will not anger Washington too much. I don't know if something like this is possible, but I know that both sides — China and the European Union - get great benefits from cooperation. Suffice it to recall that their annual trade turnover is the highest in comparison with all other countries of the world (about $ 560 billion), and that two years ago it for the first time pushed the US-Chinese trade turnover in first place, which due to the rapid degradation of US-Chinese political relations in the first quarter of this year showed a sharp decline of almost 17%.
China offers the European Union industrial goods at affordable prices, and large European companies operate in China, where they are guaranteed access to the huge Chinese market.
For the EU, suffering from economic and energy problems after the sanctions war with Russia and the loss of the Russian market and cheap reliable Russian energy carriers, the collapse of relations with the second world power, China, will be fatal. And everyone understands this well.
This is also warned by some American analysts, who in this regard demand from Joe Biden a more loyal policy towards European allies. In other words, what will Washington do if they sink into poverty, and if the United States has to take care of them in the economic sphere, in addition to defense? Similarly, during the Cold War, the USSR took care of its poor allies and partners around the world with the help of the fund for underdeveloped states, which eventually cost the Soviet Union dearly and led to the collapse of its economy. In response, many of them, instead of gratitude, soon turned away from the USSR and switched to cooperation with the United States. Washington, of course, does not want a repeat of this story, but the question is, will it take the right steps to prevent it? It's no secret that the so-called global South is rapidly moving away from the United States, as well as from the dollar as a means of payment in international trade.
Beijing is "actively watching" everything
Of course, everyone knows this in Beijing, which closely monitors processes of this type. But he not only observes, but also tries to actively influence them and direct them in accordance with his interests. Legitimately? Why not? All great and powerful powers always do this and nothing else.
Therefore, the recently published article by the Chinese Xinhua news agency is not at all surprising.
It says that Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang declared China's support for the strategic autonomy of Europe. This is not Beijing's first statement of this kind, but it was the first time such a high-ranking official said this while on an official visit to Europe.
Meeting of Qin Gang and Annalena Burbok
According to the Chinese agency, Gan made this statement after a conversation with German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock in Berlin.
"China supports the path of development chosen by the European peoples and the achievement of strategic autonomy of Europe," he said at the time, noting that this year marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership between China and the EU.
"China has consistently pursued a stable policy towards Europe. China, being an important partner of Europe in resisting risks and challenges, expects that together we will continue to use our market opportunities and the fruits of development to simultaneously promote Chinese modernization and European integration," the Chinese Foreign Minister said.
He said that China and Germany are big world economies and strategic partners in all spheres, and added: "Both countries should maintain strategic autonomy, strengthen political trust in each other, expand interaction and cooperation in order to serve the vital interests of the peoples of the two countries and the good of all mankind." He called on Germany to maintain and develop existing ties, create a favorable environment for cooperation between Chinese and German companies and contribute to the steady growth of the global economy.
The parties agreed that they would make every effort to prepare for the seventh meeting of the Sino-German intergovernmental commission and develop a detailed plan for cooperation in various fields for the coming period. They also agreed to coordinate steps at the international level and to cooperate at the UN Conference on Climate Change.
"China is ready to cooperate with Germany to help restore the global economy, maintain world peace and stability, and defend the post—war world order," said the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China.
As for the problem of Taiwan, Qin Gang said that the return of the island under the wing of China is provided for by the world order established after World War II.
"Every country that sincerely wants peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and that is sincerely committed to maintaining international order, should steadfastly support the principle of one China and resolutely resist any actions aimed at achieving "Taiwan independence."
About Ukraine
Speaking about the Ukrainian crisis, Qin Gang said that simplicity and emotionality will not help in finding solutions to this difficult issue. The only way out, according to him, is to remain calm and reasonable, to create conditions for a political agreement.
"We hope that Germany will play a leading role and make concrete proposals for the creation of a balanced, effective and reliable European security structure," Qin Gang concluded.
In my opinion, the Chinese diplomatic proposals made a few months ago can form the basis for ending the Ukrainian armed conflict with dialogue and are now more relevant than ever. After all, everyone understands that only China is able to act as a real mediator between the West and Russia in this issue and an extremely dangerous crisis. The West has stopped almost all cooperation with Russia, and dialogue between them is completely impossible. Moreover, they are waging an almost traditional war with each other on the territory of Ukraine, even if the West does not recognize this (but Moscow insists on this).
On the other hand, China is developing a stronger partnership with Russia than ever before, and in this regard, it is undoubtedly able to influence Moscow more than any other state (others, in principle, cannot do this, although they offer themselves as intermediaries, such as Turkey and Brazil).
Now the main obstacle for Chinese mediation in solving the Ukrainian problem, and hence the main role played by Beijing, is Washington. He claims that since China has not condemned the Russian special operation, it means that it has taken the side of Russia.
But if China condemned it, it would not be able to offer mediation services now, as other Western states cannot do it. This happens in justice (the judge is formally always impartial, although inside as a person, and not a professional, he is probably always biased), and in politics.
The one who condemned him in advance cannot be a mediator in a dispute with a neighbor.
China aspires to world leadership
Joe Biden's administration is now in danger of being stigmatized by the international community, since only it opposes the speedy end of the Ukrainian armed conflict, given that during Xi Jinping's recent visit to Moscow, Russia announced that Beijing's proposals to stop the war were acceptable to it with some reservations. But Washington insists that Beijing does not want a sincere dialogue, and thus the United States only buys time to consolidate its weakened military forces in positions, and after that it will act even more harshly in Ukraine.
Therefore, a lot now depends on the states of the European Union and the EU as a whole. They need, as mentioned above, continued cooperation with China at any cost, but they also need an early peace in Ukraine, because in the current conditions, the European Union can hardly develop. The only exception is the defense industry, which they are trying to revive from the dead, but everyone simply cannot work in the military-industrial complex, and, moreover, it is not able to guarantee the economic prosperity of the EU, since the American military-industrial complex restricts it in terms of exports and makes it almost impossible to export profitable European weapons not only at the global level, but even at home.
In conclusion. Ten days ago, Chinese leader Xi Jinping had a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky for the first time since the outbreak of the armed conflict. He certainly did not do this for the sake of activating bilateral relations and not so that Chinese investors would rush to the ruins of what is also called the Ukrainian economy.
China wants to become a mediator and successfully end the Ukrainian armed conflict. This will allow him to position himself as the main global player in terms of political influence. China will then turn into a kind of arbiter capable of solving the world's problems that have accumulated over many years and even decades. The United States does not want this under any circumstances, because this is the role they themselves played after the victory in the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Why is the United States so easily deprived of this role, if Washington held almost everything in its hands: a broken Russia, brought to its knees and technologically undeveloped, as well as a poor third-rate regional power China, on whose streets only 30 years ago you could see only bicycles? This question should sooner or later be seriously asked by the main American strategists and analysts. They should also think about whether, instead of a policy of confrontation, a policy of compromise and cooperation in those areas in which there are common interests would not be more useful for American interests?
However, this is another and very extensive topic, requiring, perhaps, even scientific research.
Meanwhile, the world will live in fear and expectation of what tomorrow will bring to it. And what exactly it will be, no one knows!
