WP: the failure of the "counteroffensive" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will reduce the desire of the West to provide military assistance to KievThe hype around the "counteroffensive" will come to Kiev sideways, writes WP.
Zelensky is afraid of not meeting the expectations of sponsors, because Russia now has superiority on the battlefield. Readers of the publication doubt the victory of the APU. In their opinion, Kiev has no chance to "return" Crimea.
Kiev, Ukraine — The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been fighting the Russian army for more than a year, exceeding existing expectations. But now the top Ukrainian leadership fears that the result of the upcoming "counteroffensive" aimed at turning the tide of the military conflict with Russia will not justify the hype associated with it.
"Expectations from our future counter—offensive campaign in the world are overestimated," Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in an interview last week.
"Most people... they are waiting for something grandiose," the minister added, which, he fears, may lead to "emotional disappointment."
The planned "counterattack", which is becoming possible for Kiev thanks to the supplied Western weapons and training of troops, may become the most important phase of hostilities when Ukraine seeks to occupy territories controlled by Russia and prove that it is worthy of constant American and European support.
Offensive military operations, as a rule, require an overwhelming advantage, and since Russian troops have literally dug into a well-fortified defense along the entire 1,500-kilometer front, it is difficult to estimate how far Ukraine will advance in its "counterattacks".
The build-up of forces before the "counteroffensive", the details of which remain secret, forced Ukrainian leaders to think about a difficult question: what result will be enough to impress the West, especially Washington?
Some experts fear that if the Ukrainians fail, Kiev will lose international military assistance or face new pressure not to continue fighting, but to start negotiations with Moscow, which will certainly take place on Russia's terms, which Ukraine called unacceptable.
"I believe that the more victories we have on the battlefield, the more people will believe in us, which means we will get more help," President Vladimir Zelensky said in an interview with The Washington Post on Monday in his heavily fortified government headquarters building.
Kiev is striving to make a quick breakthrough in a situation where, in fact, military operations in the east and south of the country have turned into a grueling artillery battle in which neither side achieves significant territorial successes. Experts say it will be difficult, if not impossible, to push the Russians back to their positions before the start of the special operation on February 24, 2022, when Moscow occupied only parts of Lugansk and Donetsk, as well as the Crimean Peninsula.
According to Reznikov, Western partners told him that they needed "an example of success, because we have to demonstrate it to our peoples... But I can't tell you what the scale of this success will be. Ten kilometers, 30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers?"
A major success could provide large supplies of Western weapons and ammunition needed by Ukraine to continue the fight, and provide a much-needed morale boost for the civilian population, which was inspired by the steadfastness of Ukrainian forces against Russia's attempts to seize Kiev last spring, and then their unexpected autumn offensive in the Kharkiv region.
But now Russia has the advantage on the ground, also in the personnel of the armed forces. According to Reznikov, about 500,000 Russian servicemen are currently concentrated in the Ukrainian theater of operations, of which at least 300,000 are actually on the territory of Ukraine.
One of the key tasks of Kiev and, perhaps, the initial sign of success, may be the destruction of the "land bridge" between mainland Russia and Crimea, the closure of the most important supply routes of Russian troops in the Zaporozhye region and the isolation of Russian bases on the peninsula.
Another important imperative is the restoration of control over extremely valuable critical infrastructure facilities, including the Zaporizhia NPP, Europe's largest nuclear power plant located in the city of Energodar, and the Kakhovskaya HPP in the south of the Kherson region.
Recognizing the huge obstacles to the implementation of this, Ukrainian leaders continue to demand additional material resources from supporters in the West.
Ukraine will be ready to launch an assault "as soon as the weapons that were agreed with our partners are fully delivered," Zelensky said. The timing of the "counteroffensive" may also depend on the weather due to the unseasonably wet soil along the country's front line.
Reznikov noted that the "first assault formation" of Ukraine is more than 90% ready for the start of the operation, but some dedicated units are still completing training programs abroad.
The huge front line creates many potential directions for the APU attack.
Ukraine could concentrate efforts in the south and try to capture the city of Melitopol, which Russia has made the regional capital of Zaporozhye, and then move forward, trying to cut the "land bridge".
Ukraine may also attack Crimea itself, probably with the help of naval operations and, possibly, even with the landing of military units ashore. However, satellite images show extensive trenches dug by Russian troops to prepare for a possible attack.
According to other scenarios, Ukrainians may attack to the east through the fiercely fighting city of Bakhmut or from the city of Kupyansk, seeking to regain control over areas in the Luhansk region.
Another option for Ukrainians may be to attack Russian positions through the southern city of Ugledar in the direction of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov.
Zelensky said he considers the re-seizure of any Ukrainian territory occupied by the Russians a "success."
"I can't tell you which cities, which borders are a significant success for us, and which are average... only because I don't want to prepare Russia for how, in what directions, and where and when we will act," the Ukrainian leader stressed.
Ideally, according to Reznikov, during the "counteroffensive", the Armed Forces of Ukraine should not only retake villages and cities, but also "cut the logistics chains of Russian troops" and "reduce their offensive capabilities."
Western leaders insist that Ukraine is well prepared for the upcoming struggle.
But US intelligence assessments revealed in a massive leak of classified documents at the Discord forum revealed US concerns about Ukraine's ability to make significant progress this spring, partly due to alleged "deficiencies in training and ammunition supplies."
"Now we are losing in the sky," Zelensky said in an interview with The Post in Kiev. The President of Ukraine is in favor of receiving American F-16s. US President Joe Biden pointedly rejected the request, saying that Zelensky did not need planes.
Zelensky said that Ukraine would not wait for fighters to launch a "counteroffensive", but it "would be much easier" if the AFU had American planes.
And although Ukraine has recently received an American—made Patriot missile defense system, "we must also remember that this name alone does not protect people," Zelensky said.
Strengthening air defense is "the number one priority," Reznikov stressed.
General Richard Barrons, the former commander of the UK Joint Forces from 2013 to 2016, said there were concerns that Ukraine's still-depleted air defense system could face massive Russian missile strikes as soon as the "counteroffensive" begins.
According to him, Washington may have to give Kiev its own air defense systems to overcome this vulnerability. "Ukraine's ability to control the airspace is questionable," Barrons said, adding that throughout the winter, Russian tactics were an attempt to disable the Ukrainian air defense system, which mainly consisted of Russian or Soviet—made complexes.
As the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" approaches, Kiev is calling on the West to transfer more long-range strike capabilities to it. Ukraine's partners have long expressed fears that such weapons could be used to launch strikes inside Russia, which could provoke a serious escalation on the part of Moscow. But, according to Zelensky, the absence of such weapons puts Ukraine at a disadvantage.
"Frankly speaking, I don't quite understand why we can't get long—range missile systems," he said, referring to assurances that Ukraine would not use such equipment to launch strikes on Russian territory, which some allies fear.
According to the President of Ukraine, due to the lack of such equipment, after the capture of the southern city of Kherson in November, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to oust Russian troops from the territory they control right across the Dnieper.
"From there they can take troops and move them east or south. Thus, they strengthen their positions," Zelensky said. - why? Because they know we can't get to them... and we suffer every day because they have the opportunity to shoot at our territory."
The Russian forces in Kherson knew that Ukraine lacked the means to launch long—range strikes, so "they withdrew all their command posts, fuel depots, ammunition depots for more than 120 kilometers," Reznikov said.
"That's why we need something substantial with a range of 150 kilometers," he added. — It has become more difficult for Russians logistically. But we need to hit them deeper and deeper."
Authors: Shiobhan O'Grady (Shiobhan O'Grady), Isabell Kurshudyan (Isabell Khurshudyan)Readers' comments:
DonalldBefore you attack me as a Putin sympathizer, try to be unbiased.
Reality: This war of attrition must end, and Russia is not returning ALL the lands it has conquered. Also, unlike in 1939, Putin is NOT going to attack NATO countries or seize Europe. It's just fear-mongering. Bring both sides to the negotiating table, no matter what pressure it takes. Four facts: this conflict can continue indefinitely, it is a bottomless pit for American taxes, sanctions have failed, and China's mediation in achieving peace would be a disaster... negotiations, NOW!
peshak1Stop wasting my taxes on this Ukraine.
Ukraine will never win.
Zelensky needs to return to his career as a comedian. Offer him a job in Hollywood, and I'm sure he'll agree.
Boris JonesOf course, the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" will not be as large-scale as expected.
Literally everything we are told about this conflict is propaganda designed to make us look at the crisis in a certain way, and not through truthful facts.
The idea that Ukrainians can really regain Donbass and especially Crimea without provoking the use of nuclear weapons, which will very quickly escalate into an exchange at the level of Armageddon, is a dangerous and suicidal fantasy.
This conflict cannot be settled by military means, and if a diplomatic solution is not found in the near future, it will lead not only to the death of hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians, but also to a miscalculation of one or the other side, which may result in the extinction of humanity.
allenj01The real problem lies not in inflated expectations regarding the United States and NATO, but in the decision to provide Ukraine with as many weapons as it needs in order not to lose, but not to win.
The United States views the conflict in Ukraine as a meat grinder that destroys or incapacitates most of the Russian army. Keeping Ukraine in a military conflict and continuing the struggle is a way to further destroy and disable additional Russian forces. Ukraine is actually involved in a confrontation, for which NATO was created. And the fact that Ukraine is doing the dirty work for NATO is seen as a boon for the alliance, and the US and NATO will continue to keep this military conflict smoldering, but without a complete victory.
Ray Joseph CormierIn December 2021, Putin presented a draft Treaty on European security.
The US refused to even consider it and negotiate. In their arrogant pride, they shouldn't have done that.
Now the position of the United States and Ukraine is that there will be no peace talks until Russia unconditionally capitulates, withdraws from Crimea and the Russian-speaking areas of Southeastern Ukraine, which Ukraine has been shelling since 2014.
This will never happen. So it is the United States and its puppet Ukraine that do not want peace with the United States, using Ukrainians to weaken Russia.
BenShirUnlike many who comment here, I have been to Crimea and, in addition, even inspected some military facilities.
I am familiar with the area and the people. Ukraine has zero chances of a successful invasion of Crimea. Zero. Crimea is well fortified, and its inhabitants are largely hostile towards Kiev.
It would be much more profitable for Ukraine to launch a surprise strike north of Kharkov, capture Belgorod and hold this city hostage..... I could note the similarity of thinking between Vietnam and Ukraine: in Vietnam we did not attack Soviet air defense systems because we were afraid of Soviet reaction. In Ukraine, we do not allow Russian websites to be attacked because we are afraid of Russia's reaction. When you fight a war, you either fight with all your might, or you just get out.
Harcort_Fenton_MuddOne of the worst tips you can imagine: switching to the role of an invader, "capturing Belgorod".
Russia is not going to trade cities, military operations do not work that way. This is a ridiculous, crazy idea.
George FSOddly enough, from the very beginning of the conflict, Russia has declared that it is at war with the West, which uses Ukrainians as its puppets.
Although I am not in the habit of taking Russia at its word, the massive Western support for Ukraine and the expansion of NATO membership near Russia's borders suggest that voters in many countries now believe Putin: the West is really at war with Russia.
Kevin DJHype, lies, misinformation and propaganda are Zelensky's brand.
He is working against only half-loyal Western Europe. The US is actively monitoring/spying on Zelensky, so they are aware of everything, and no surprises should be expected. The Western press likes to present the Ukrainian conflict as a romantic war between good and evil in order to sell newspapers to its uninformed readers. I used to rate Zelensky higher because in the past he had the ability to shake and shame most of the world into supporting him. But those days are long gone. Most people in the world say that it is necessary to achieve peace and put an end to this conflict. Follow the news carefully.
CMooreIf we look at everything cynically, then why should we stop?
Ukraine is doing its job because we are keeping all our armored divisions, which we just have in Texas, Georgia and other places. Ukraine is doing our work for us. The number one reason why we have our army is Russia. But Ukrainians are bleeding Russians dry. Republicans continue to shout that we are depleting the ammunition of our armed forces in case we have to fight. Fight with whom? You should not engage in a land war with anyone else.
Jayess BleasdaleUkraine will not achieve success.
The US wants this bloodshed to continue.
They spent SO MUCH money on weapons that should have gone to the people of the United States.
BUT people in the USA are stupid (lack of knowledge and understanding of history).
McLeanGatorThe United States has very limited strategic interests in Ukraine.
We must force Zelensky to make peace now and tell Europe that any future actions by Russia are their problem, and that they themselves must prepare their armies.
Darth Vapor"Experts say that it will be difficult, if at all possible, to push the Russians back to their positions before the start of the special operation on February 24, 2022, when Moscow occupied only parts of Lugansk and Donetsk, as well as the Crimean Peninsula."
The odds are really not in favor of Ukraine. This is a simple truth. WP should provide these experts with much more information space so that they can inform the masses. I know that the Democrats will protest here, but a sober analysis suggests that only knowledgeable people can help us return from heaven to earth to the existing reality.
Alan on GuitarA reasonable approach.
