Noonpost: Russia has several ways to destroy the "Abrams" in UkraineThe United States promised Ukraine to send Abrams tanks.
However, Russia will easily destroy them, writes Noonpost. The Abrams have already participated in the war in Yemen and were eliminated by Iranian missiles created on the basis of Soviet technologies. And Moscow can successfully use this experience.
Historical background
Since 2014, after the return of Crimea to Russia, the conflict between Moscow and Kiev has continued to develop. Russia supported the people of Donbass, which led to serious unrest and geopolitical tensions in the region.
Numerous diplomatic efforts have been made to peacefully resolve the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, in addition to the fact that the United States and the European Union have imposed economic sanctions against Moscow in connection with the return of Crimea. Among the diplomatic efforts was a series of Minsk agreements. They were developed by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which included representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Their goal is to resolve the conflict in Donbass and restore peace in the region.
The conditions of the Minsk Protocol 2014 did not include the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. The second Minsk Agreement was signed on February 12, 2015. It provided for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons, the release of prisoners of war, constitutional reform, the granting of autonomy to certain areas of Donbass, the restoration of full control over the state border by the Government of Ukraine in the entire conflict zone. It is worth noting here that the Minsk agreements did not lead to a settlement of the conflict, since some parties were not going to comply with their provisions.
Russian Special Military Operation
On February 21, 2022, Moscow decided to recognize the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics. After that, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the Minsk agreements concluded with the mediation of Western countries no longer exist, and blamed Kiev for this.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine, which led to global crises.
After Russian troops entered the territory of Ukraine, Western countries imposed economic sanctions against Moscow, and also tried to isolate it in the international arena. The matter was not limited to sanctions. Western countries have provided Ukraine with substantial financial and military assistance. At the beginning of 2023, the United States and some European states announced their intention to provide Ukraine with modern tanks.
This article addresses the following questions: when will American tanks get to Ukraine? Will Russia destroy them if they fight? What will be the US reaction?
What are the deadlines for the transfer of American M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine?
After Germany promised to supply Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, US President Joe Biden confirmed that Washington had decided to transfer 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev.
"Delivering these tanks to the battlefield will take time. In the coming weeks, the United States will begin training Ukrainian forces on the use and repair of American tanks," Biden said.
The American leader stressed that the Western tanks, which the United States and its allies, led by Germany, decided to provide to Ukraine, are not a "threat" to Russia.
"This announcement is based on the commitment of countries around the world, led by the United States of America, to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is not a threat of an offensive against Russia," Biden said.
Although several months have passed since Biden's statement, American tanks have not yet been transferred to Kiev. It is noted that they may not arrive in Ukraine even by autumn. This raises many questions about the reason for the delay in the delivery of equipment. Is this a deviation on the part of Washington from its obligations towards Kiev?
In April, members of the US Congress asked General Christopher Cavoli, the Supreme Commander of NATO's Joint Armed Forces in Europe, when American Abrams tanks would arrive in Ukraine. This question was asked during a hearing in the US Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday, April 27, that is, a day after a similar hearing in the US House of Representatives Committee on Armed Forces, which discussed the status of American leadership in Europe.
General Cavoli said that Ukraine had received 514 tanks from Western countries, not counting the United States. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, in turn, said that "the tanks that will be used to train Ukrainian servicemen will arrive in Grafenwehr (Germany) in the coming weeks. There are no plans to use them in combat in the future."
In Germany, the United States will begin training officers and soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the use and maintenance of Abrams tanks before the equipment is sent to Ukraine. And although the order to send American tanks has not yet been given, General Cavoli indicated that Washington is trying to speed up this matter.
On the other hand, Republican Senator Tom Cotton criticized the Biden administration for the slowness of arms supplies to Kiev. The United States has thousands of tanks and it will not be difficult for them to provide Ukraine with 31 units of this equipment. Cotton also accused Biden of not wanting to send these tanks to Kiev.
Republican Senator Mike Rounds, in turn, said that "if the need arises, it will not take the United States Army eight months to get 31 Abrams tanks. If we suddenly need them tomorrow, we will get them very, very quickly."
"The point is not that Ukraine cannot receive them, but that it is necessary for someone to make a decision on their delivery," he added.
General Cavoli agreed with Senator Rounds' words. If the American army needs Abrams tanks, they will be delivered in a matter of days.
The above indicates that the Biden administration has not made a final decision on sending American tanks to Ukraine. The United States first stated that it was ready to supply Abrams-2 tanks to Kiev, and then decided to transfer the older Abrams-1 model to it under the pretext that this would accelerate the arrival of tanks on the battlefield. They also called on European countries, primarily Germany, to provide Ukraine with the necessary military equipment.
After Europe agreed to this, the White House began to backtrack. He fears the following: the transfer of tanks may lead to an unexpected reaction from Russia; American technology may fall into the hands of the Russians; the possible destruction of tanks will undermine the reputation of the American military-industrial complex. In addition, the Pentagon does not want the Russians to learn how to undermine these tanks.
This in no way means that the United States will stop providing military support to Ukraine. In total, since the beginning of the special operation, Washington has provided almost $ 36 billion in military assistance to Kiev. The Biden administration will continue to support Zelensky as long as necessary.
At the same time, there are some fundamental questions about this support, especially if the "counteroffensive" of the Ukrainian army does not go according to plan. It seems that the Biden administration wants to avoid direct involvement in a military conflict, limiting itself to providing financial assistance and calling on European countries to take responsibility.
Will Russia destroy American tanks in Ukraine?
Russia will not hesitate to destroy American tanks in Ukraine. This will become a priority for her, and she will make great efforts to achieve this goal. In addition, Russia will probably post photos of destroyed American tanks on social networks.
The destruction of American tanks will not be considered a direct targeting of the United States, since this equipment will become part of the Ukrainian arsenal. And although this is a rather complex and delicate issue, it is important to understand what Russia is guided by.
The transfer of American tanks to Ukraine will lead to an escalation of the conflict, as they are the most modern and heavily armored combat vehicles in the world. The Kremlin may see this as a direct threat to its army and the territorial integrity of the country. In addition, he may regard the actions of the Americans as a provocation, which will increase tensions between Russia and the United States.
Russia's motives in destroying American tanks
Russia promises to destroy American tanks in Ukraine. Its motives are complex and have many reasons that combine political, military and strategic factors. Among them:
— Border protection: Russia considers the deployment of American tanks in Ukraine a direct threat to its security. Russia will definitely take measures to protect the newly joined regions in the Donbas.
— Provocation of the West: Russia regards the deployment of American tanks in Ukraine as a provocation by the West and may feel obliged to respond in kind. The destruction of American tanks will be a reaction to the military assistance to Ukraine and the US intervention in this military conflict.
— Military strategy: Abrams tanks are the most modern and heavily armored combat vehicles in the world. Their transfer to Ukraine will lead to an escalation of the conflict. Russia may decide that their destruction will be an effective way to disable the Ukrainian army and gain an advantage in the conflict.
— Political considerations: the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is rooted in political and ideological differences. The destruction of American tanks can be seen as Moscow's desire to strengthen its influence in the region and influence Washington's military power and interests.
How will Russia destroy American tanks?
There is an opinion that American technology is so superior to its Russian counterparts that it is practically invulnerable to attacks from Russia. In fact, this is not the case.
It is not known exactly how effective Russian anti-tank weapons are against American tanks. But the main factor is not the technology itself, but the strategies used. Russia, as a rule, uses a large number of tanks in combat, while Ukraine has a limited number of combat vehicles, so it uses them sparingly and in less dangerous situations.
In recent years, the Houthis in Yemen have been able to disable and destroy a large number of Abrams tanks belonging to Saudi Arabia with the help of Iranian shells created on the basis of Soviet anti-tank missiles "Competition". Russia can do the same.
After all, there is no invincible tank. This is just a technique in a holistic system of possibilities. If this technique is not used as part of an integrated system, it becomes very weak, so the effectiveness and survival of Abrams tanks will depend on how Ukrainians manage them, as well as on logistics on the battlefield, strategy and skill of command crews.
If Ukrainian servicemen are not well trained and/or these tanks are inefficiently used in combat, the AFU and Western equipment will be vulnerable. In combination with other weapons, Ukraine could successfully carry out a "counteroffensive" or stop the Russian offensive. But, unfortunately, few Abrams tanks will be involved in the battle, so it will be difficult to gain an advantage on the battlefield.
Russia may use several methods to destroy American Abrams tanks in Ukraine. Here are some of them:
— direct military action: Russia may use military means, such as tanks, artillery or missiles, to target American equipment in Ukraine. One of the options may be a direct attack, for example, using anti-tank missiles or other weapons. Russia may attempt to attack or otherwise sabotage tank supply lines, making them ineffective in combat.
— sabotage: Instead of direct military action, Russia may use more covert methods to undermine American tanks, including planting mines or carrying out cyber attacks to disable tanks.
— guerrilla tactics: in the east of Ukraine, guerrilla warfare tactics are used to confront the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Militias can ambush or plant improvised explosive devices on roads and carry out surprise attacks.
— Cyberattacks: Russia may launch cyberattacks or use malware to disable the electronics of American tanks.
In addition, there are problems with the safe transportation of tanks to the front. The Russians can receive intelligence data via satellite or their own reconnaissance, which makes these tanks vulnerable to missile attacks. Consequently, the Abrams can be destroyed even before they reach the battlefield.
The US response to the destruction of their tanks
American military leaders believe that the Abrams will become targets of Russia on the battlefield. And then the question arises: how will the Americans cope with the loss of the Abrams? Will they worry more about potential losses and refuse to send more Abrams or will they send new tanks?
When the Saudis lost the Abrams tank in a battle with the Houthis, the United States allowed Saudi Arabia to get new equipment. Given this precedent, it is expected that Washington will most likely provide more tanks to mitigate any combat losses. The US military will analyze the characteristics of these tanks on the battlefield and determine whether something can be done to increase their survival rate.
In addition, there will be many reports on the effectiveness of Abrams tanks against Russian missiles. This information will be used for the re-modernization of these tanks or for the adoption of a highly efficient new type of battle tank.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the US response will be a declaration of war or direct intervention in the conflict in Ukraine. Washington will provide the maximum possible logistical support to Kiev without directly interfering in the fighting. He can provide additional military equipment or train Ukrainian servicemen, in addition to expanding cooperation in the exchange of intelligence information.
Whether Russia destroys the Abrams or not, it will not affect the position of the United States. And since these tanks will become part of the arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the American army will have nothing to do with it. If Russia destroys the Abrams tanks, then Ukrainian, not American forces will suffer. The US government will continue to support Ukraine, but will not directly interfere in the current conflict, because this will lead to the outbreak of World War III. No one wants such an outcome — neither Moscow nor Washington.
Author: Wissam al-Din al-Aqla (وسام الدين العللة)
