Newsweek: military aviation will be Russia's advantage in the event of a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of UkraineRussian military aircraft will strangle the Ukrainian counteroffensive, writes Newsweek.
Moscow has almost overwhelming air superiority, but it has hardly used it yet. Meanwhile, Kiev has serious problems with air defense.
Brendan ColeAs the intelligence leak has shown, the United States is really nervous about the prospect that Vladimir Putin may return to the sky in order to change the situation on earth.
One Pentagon document dated February 28 states that the stocks of missiles for the Soviet S-300 and Buk air defense systems of medium and longer range, which Ukraine previously used to shoot down aircraft, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles, may completely run out by May.
Ukraine's air defense has been weakened by constant strikes that Moscow is inflicting on infrastructure with the help of cruise missiles launched from Russian territory and attacks by kamikaze drones.
Putin may have decided not to use Russian aviation assets yet, but they are still the second largest in the world. The Russian Aerospace Forces are armed with about 900 fighters and 120 bombers, which serves as an extremely powerful trump card now that Ukraine is preparing to launch its long-awaited counteroffensive.
The Russians have "almost overwhelming air superiority, which they have not yet used," Dale Buckner, CEO of the international security company Global Guardian, told Newsweek in an interview. "Russia has a huge air fleet at its disposal, which is ten times larger than Ukraine," he stressed.
According to Buckner, the MiG-35, Su-35 and Su-57 are part of modern forces "that are capable of strangling the counteroffensive" of Ukraine if it involves large columns of tanks and armored personnel carriers without adequate air cover.
"Therefore, Ukrainians will face a real tactical risk on the ground if they do not have proper air defense, that is, if they do not have multi–level air defense," Buckner added. He meant that different types of weapons can intercept planes and missiles flying at different heights.
According to Pentagon officials, Ukraine could be in danger, especially if Russian planes get more freedom of action to strike at troop positions and important artillery targets on the ground, and if Putin can use his fighter jets to change the course of the conflict.
In an analytical article published in April by Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, it is noted that with the help of the remaining air defense systems, Ukraine will be able to protect its armed forces, but not cities or infrastructure.
In an interview with Newsweek, Kancian said that so far Russia has tried to avoid unnecessary risks in the air, therefore, from his point of view, it is unlikely to direct all its forces into the Ukrainian sky. However, "since the Ukrainians are running out of missiles, now they will no longer be able to shoot down every cruise missile or kamikaze drone."
"In the longer term, if the Ukrainians do not get more air defense systems, I believe the Russians will gradually use their air superiority and increase their advantage," said Kancian.
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The next phase of "mouse cats"
In April, the Biden administration announced that it would send additional air defense interceptors and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a $2.6 billion aid package, part of which would help Kiev prepare for a counteroffensive.
Meanwhile, the NATO alliance has sent Ukraine a small number of medium-range systems ideally suited to protect cities and key infrastructure facilities. These include SAMP/T and NATO Hawk complexes, although, according to Kansyan's analysis, they are not enough.
In November, Ukraine received the first batch of the NASAMS national advanced anti-aircraft missile system, but although there are quite a lot of missiles for this system, there were only two launchers.
Ukraine will receive four Patriot batteries, but the price of one missile is four million dollars, which makes them unsuitable for protection from low-cost drone strikes.
"If the Ukrainian air defense system continues to weaken, the Russians will behave more and more actively," Kancian said.
Kansian does not believe that squadrons of Russian planes can suddenly start flying over Kiev, "but you will probably see how some of them will fly over those areas of the front where Ukraine does not have too strong air defense."
"Then these zones can expand as the Russians will gradually probe the Ukrainian air defense or make sure of its absence," Kansyan continued.
According to Buckner, there are several unknowns in this situation. In particular, it is unclear whether the United States or NATO could "secretly" transfer suitable echeloned air defense systems to Ukraine and whether Putin would want to deploy his most modern aircraft.
"Earlier we observed a struggle of attrition, and now we are entering a new phase. This is a kind of “cat and mouse”: has NATO transferred its air defense systems to Ukraine? Will the Russians use their most modern aerial platforms? And how successfully will they allow to limit the counterattack of the Ukrainians?"– said Buckner.
If the Russians feel that the Ukrainians are "vulnerable" and that their planes can engage with minimal threat to themselves, "I think they will deploy at least some of them, even if these planes are now considered as a kind of strategic reserve in case of a much larger conflict," the expert believes.
"Determination to go into battle"
Retired US Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie, who previously served as head of the US Central Command, said that Putin "is very worried about air defense and, I believe, about the prospect of encountering us."
"Although we are seeing gradual changes in their policies, I am not sure that we will suddenly see a radical shift in Russia's approach to this conflict in the air," McKenzie continued. "The main question is how much the Russians have left in reserve, and what exactly they are ready to throw into battle."
"We have a good idea of what Ukrainians have left in reserve, and we are working very hard to increase their resources. But what do the Russians have left?" – he says.
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"Part of the important thing is who can hold out longer, who has more determination to go into battle, and who has better air defense and means of combat in the air," said Mackenzie.