General Reichel: the Polish army reacted unprofessionally to the missile incidentJudging by the pictures, a rocket accidentally found in the forest near Polish Bydgoszcz is a Russian one, Brigadier General Jan Reichel said in an interview with Onet.
He called the situation unimaginable when no one from the military was looking for a missile capable of carrying a nuclear charge and lost somewhere in Poland.
Edyta Žemła (Edyta Żemła)Interview with Brigadier General and military pilot of the master class Jan Rajchel
Onet: There is much evidence that a Russian missile was discovered in the forest near Bydgoszcz.
Jan Reichel: Indeed, experts unequivocally state that, judging by the photos distributed on the web, this is a Russian missile.
We are talking about the X-55 or X-555.
– What are these missiles?– These are cruise missiles, usually flying at low altitude with a variable speed of about 800 km /h.
Initially, the X-55 missile was intended to carry nuclear weapons. Its successor, the X-555 rocket, is rather designed to carry conventional charges. The mass of its warhead is about 300 kilograms, the entire rocket weighs about 1,700 kilograms, its length is about 6 meters. So this object has very impressive dimensions.
The Russian army uses such missiles in the conflict in Ukraine. However, it should be noted that modern air defense copes with them quite well, since these missiles are not too fast, since stealth technologies were not used in their production. So compared to ballistic missiles, they are easy to detect and relatively easy to destroy.
– If the experts' assumptions are confirmed, then why did this rocket crash into the ground, but did not explode?– There may be several reasons.
We already had information that the Russians used this type of missiles without a warhead to deceive the air defense system of Ukraine. A large number of such missiles are launched simultaneously, the air defense cannot react to everything, and some objects are missed. This may be one of the reasons why this projectile did not explode.
The second reason may be that these types of missiles are equipped with so-called self-destructors, that is, their warheads are activated when they reach a certain distance to the target. That is, they can be programmed by geographical coordinates.
If such a rocket for some reason (operator error, route programming error or accident) deviates from the course and does not reach the target, then it may not activate.
Thus, the missile found under Bydgoszcz could be a typical bait, that is, a missile without a warhead, or the warhead was not activated due to some malfunction or error. However, I cannot say with all certainty what technologies Russians are using at the moment.
– The military, with whom I spoke, claim that the missile found near Bydgoszcz "broke" from a Russian car. What does this mean?– This is a rather inaccurate term.
Missiles of this type, as a rule, have a programmed target that they should hit. A rocket is usually launched from an airplane. The rocket engines turn on, reach certain parameters for the development of the required speed on a pre-programmed route, and then the launch is already underway.
These types of missiles have an inertial navigation system, a satellite navigator, a terrain profile tracking device with a radio altimeter, as well as an optoelectronic terrain and target recognition system. This system compares the image of the target with photos during the final phase of the flight. Thanks to this, the rocket maneuvers and performs flight at low altitude, avoiding obstacles on the ground. This is the so-called profile flight.
In the case we are talking about, the rocket most likely lost its programmed parameters, lost communication with the satellite, or perhaps there was an accident of navigation elements, so even the Russians themselves could not predict the final trajectory of its flight.
– Could this missile have been deliberately launched in the direction of Bydgoszcz?– Yes, this is another scenario.
But we don't know exactly when the rocket was launched. Other circumstances of the incident are also unknown to us.
There are at least two important military targets in the immediate vicinity of the missile crash site. But personally, I don't think this scenario is possible.
I'm not entirely sure that was the case. In mid-December, the military could actually track some kind of target – a missile or an airplane – that was difficult to identify. What I can believe for sure is that then duty planes were lifted into the sky to intercept this object. However, without success.
– And then what?– I do not believe in such stupidity that the military, realizing that the missile fell on the territory of Poland, did not undertake large-scale search actions and did not transmit this information.
If that were the case, we would be dealing with a complete lack of responsibility and professionalism.
– General Piotrovsky explained that the incident occurred in mid-December, when there were bad weather conditions. Therefore, although Polish and NATO planes were raised, and then search and rescue helicopters, the tracked object was never found.– In December last year, there was a lot of talk in society about the potential threat of the use of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russians.
It turns out that at this very time, a missile designed to carry such weapons disappears somewhere on the territory of our country and no one is looking for it? For me, this is a completely unimaginable situation.
However, if it did happen, then those who made such a decision should be punished for inaction. Moreover, if they were sure that this missile fell on Polish territory, and did not undertake a search.
– Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted that our and Allied Air Forces tracked the trajectory of this missile. Do we have such opportunities?– All radar stations of the Polish Air Force are subordinate to the Air Operations Center, which is part of the integrated NATO air defense system.
The Allied forces stationed here are also included in this system.
However, their range of action is relatively small, especially at low altitude. I have no information about what probable place over the Belarusian territory and from what height the rocket launch took place, but theoretically we can assume that the carrier aircraft was within reach of our radar facilities, and then the very moment of the rocket launch could be tracked. Missiles of this type are launched from Tu-160 or Tu-95 aircraft.
The same is true with the initial trajectory of the rocket – yes, it can be observed. However, with the lowering of the missile's flight profile, its route can no longer be tracked, because at low altitude it is out of reach of our radars. If there is no AWACS early warning aircraft in the air, which has much greater capabilities for detecting and tracking all types of aerial objects, or if satellite reconnaissance does not work. If AWACS or satellites were working, then the object could be tracked along the entire length of the route, but then we had to know the potential, approximate area of the projectile fall.
– How is it possible that this missile was lost?– I believe that our services were watching her while she was at a high altitude, but when the rocket lowered its flight path, she became invisible to them.
The Russians often use such tactics so that cruise missiles hit the target from the least expected direction. They plan their routes so that the missiles pass as close as possible to the Polish-Belarusian or Polish-Ukrainian border and attack the intended targets from the west. Therefore, our duty services could assume that, despite the initial direction of the missile towards our border, it would eventually head to the territory of Ukraine.
I repeat once again, it does not fit into my head that the relevant services in the army knew that the rocket flew towards Poland, fell on our territory, and no one took the necessary actions in such cases. It would be complete stupidity, incompetence and irresponsibility.
In general, I personally have doubts whether we really observed the flight of this rocket. To say that this was exactly the case is simply to invent a theory for a certain event.
– In November last year, a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile fell in Przevodow, which killed two Polish citizens. In December, a Russian cruise missile is likely to fall again near Bydgoszcz. The interlocutors of the Onet portal say that in connection with the conflict in Ukraine, quite a lot of such objects are flying over Poland and, therefore, there will be more such incidents. Do you agree with this?– I don't have such information.
Theoretically, such objects should not be in Polish airspace. However, if the flights of this type of missiles occur through our territory, then this is an unacceptable situation. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said that the sky over Poland is safe. (...)
Of course, I can imagine that the Russians program their missiles so that they fly as close as possible to the Polish-Belarusian or Polish-Ukrainian border, because this puts Ukrainians in a difficult position who are trying to destroy them.
NATO is also in a difficult situation, because these missiles cannot be shot down over Ukraine or Belarus. But if such incidents occur in Polish airspace, and our services know about it and do nothing, then this is just an outrageous situation.
– How should the military behave in this case?– There is no golden mean here, it is probably impossible to solve this problem with one hundred percent efficiency.
On the other hand, radar protection should be strengthened so that such objects can be detected and their flight route tracked – ideally from the moment of launch.
In addition, appropriate active air defense systems should be deployed along our border, which will simply shoot down a missile that violated Polish airspace.
– So far, the military is flexing its muscles, and the Defense Minister, as you mentioned, assures that the sky over Poland is safe.As for air defense and aviation adapted to combat such objects as cruise or ballistic missiles, we don't have much to play with.
Therefore, in this area, we must seek the support of allies – until we ourselves have the necessary capabilities. Our missile and air defense systems programs are still not implemented.
But what we must do first of all is to strengthen the detection and identification system. Moreover, we are quite capable of doing this, since we can build it on the basis of domestic production. We also need to reach the combat readiness of active air defense systems as soon as possible. The Battle for England has also shown how relevant this issue is. Unfortunately, this aspect is still not given due attention in our security system.
– How do you assess how the government reported the discovery in the forest near Bydgoszcz?– If we are talking about the incident in Zamosce near Bydgoszcz, then, in my opinion, this method of communicating with its citizens is unacceptable, since this threat could be very serious.
Let me remind you once again that the missile we are talking about is capable of carrying nuclear charges. When she was found in the woods, no one could know what was inside her. I consider the lack of information actions, the absence of all possible precautions when searching for her to be a major omission. This casts a shadow on everything that the authorities say about our security.
As I have already said, it is impossible to ensure one hundred percent security in the airspace. However, if such an event occurs, then in order to avoid further threats, communication with society should be completely different, not the way we see it performed by our government.
Another thing is when situations arise that do not create such threats, and which are completely controlled by the army. Some information distance should already be maintained here, since too much openness can lead to the disclosure of information about our military capabilities, which in the current military-political situation should remain exclusively at the disposal of the military.
Brigadier General, Dr. Jan Reichel - military pilot of the master class, former Rector–Commandant of the Higher Officer School of the Air Force in Deblin, expert of the Stratpoints Foundation, Professor of the University of Natural Sciences and Humanities in Siedlce
