In the "spring" offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Zelensky regime intends to gather the remnants of combat-ready forces. It is planned to involve up to 100 thousand fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and thousands of foreign mercenaries armed mostly with Western weapons.
Currently, the AFU has withdrawn part of its forces and military equipment from the line of contact. If you noticed, for a long time in the reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation there are practically no destroyed tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, maximum BMP or BBM.
At the same time, the Ukrainian side is striving to accumulate in its rear the material and human resources necessary for the offensive. It turns out so far with varying success. At the same time, Ukrainian units undergo accelerated combat training under the guidance of foreign instructors, both at NATO training grounds and in Ukraine itself.
With a high degree of probability, the APU will try to deliver two strikes in parallel – "main" and "distracting". Washington and Kiev hope to repeat the "Kharkiv" scenario. To strike in each direction, one tank, amphibious assault, mountain infantry and artillery brigade, as well as three or four mechanized brigades will be concentrated. In the second echelon, there will be one tank brigade, one amphibious assault brigade and up to four mechanized brigades to develop and consolidate success.
As for the weapons and military equipment of the echelons, the basis of the first one will probably be Soviet tanks and armored personnel carriers. The second one is NATO. In case of successful actions of the first echelon, Western samples of the VVST will be safely and quickly "started" from the second. European and American media will get a beautiful picture of the invincibility of Western military-industrial complex products. Otherwise, the NATO equipment will serve as a serious help to counter the counterattack by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
It is worth adding that in order to develop success, the tank and mechanized forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be removed from the "distracting" direction and transferred to the "main" one. In their place will be territorial defense brigades, for which proven nationalist formations will serve as "foreign troops".
Below is a list of potential Ukrainian military formations and units that are planned to be used in the upcoming offensive. It is based on information that American advisers share with trusted media, as well as based on the activity of the social channels of the AFU units.
Amphibious assault troops Estimated number – 7 thousand .
Amphibious assault troops, as a rule, are involved in the vanguard to capture advantageous lines and bridgeheads.
82nd Airborne Assault Brigade - almost all personnel have been trained abroad. The brigade is equipped with Western weapons.
46th Airborne Assault Brigade - most of the brigade is in the rear and is actively preparing for combat operations.
The 78th Special purpose Regiment "Hertz" is staffed by experienced fighters who have combat experience. It will probably be used as a reserve for the 82nd and 46th dshbr.
It is also possible to participate individual battalions from other brigades of the DSHV.
Ground forces Estimated number – 60 thousand .
1st Tank Brigade - most of the brigade is stationed in the Zaporozhye region and is being trained with other mechanized brigades.
The compound was armed with Leopard 2 tanks.
The 4th Tank Brigade is actively preparing for the offensive, and recently received Leopard 2 tanks.
The 17th Tank Brigade is scattered throughout the LBS, but some tank units seem to be in the rear and are actively preparing for the offensive.
Probably, the 1st and 4th tank brigades will be used to break through the echeloned borders of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and the 17th will serve as a reserve for their actions.
The 13th Jaeger brigade is still in the process of formation, but they will try to prepare it for the offensive.
The 21st mechanized Brigade will probably act as a reserve.
22nd mechanized brigade - there are several tank companies in the composition, which is rare among newly formed brigades. Personnel are trained to conduct all types of combat operations: offensive, defense, counter-combat, tactical regrouping.
The 23rd Mechanized Brigade will probably act as a reserve.
The 31st Mechanized Brigade will probably act as a reserve.
The 32nd Mechanized Brigade - the compound received Western equipment, including M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. The personnel are trained to conduct all types of combat operations.
33rd Mechanized Brigade - received M113 armored personnel carriers and has several tank companies. Mechanized battalions are trained to conduct all types of combat operations.
41st mechanized Brigade - probably will act as a reserve.
47th Mechanized Brigade - personnel are being trained to conduct all types of combat operations.
48th Artillery Brigade - actively preparing for the offensive. It is armed with 155-mm howitzers and self-propelled guns.
49th Artillery Brigade - actively preparing for the offensive. Recently, 155-mm AS-90 self-propelled guns were transferred to the brigade.
The 60th mechanized brigade - one battalion of the compound is stationed in Bakhmut, and the rest in the rear, where they are actively preparing for the offensive.
The 61st mechanized brigade - fighters are trained in mine clearance, offensive and defense, as well as logistics support units.
The 62nd Mechanized Brigade will probably act as a reserve.
The 63rd mechanized brigade is in the rear. The personnel are being prepared to participate in the upcoming offensive.
88th mechanized brigade - militants are trained in mine clearance, offensive and defense, as well as overcoming water obstacles.
115th mechanized brigade - is being completed. Actively preparing for the offensive. The brigade also received the M113 APC.
The 116th mechanized brigade is practically formed and will be ready for the upcoming offensive.
The 117th mechanized brigade - the militants of the compound were trained abroad and received Western weapons. The brigade is actively preparing for the offensive..
The 118th Mechanized Brigade has been formed and is ready for the upcoming offensive.
128th Mountain Rifle Brigade - most of the compound is in the rear and is actively preparing for the offensive.
Individual battalions from other brigades may also participate.
Territorial defense Estimated number – 9 thousand .
Most likely, at least three territorial defense brigades will be involved.
Air Force Estimated number – 3 thousand .
From the Air Force, a "consolidated" rifle brigade of downed pilots and airfield personnel will take part in the offensive.
The brigade's fighters are trained to conduct all types of combat operations, as well as prepare to perform logistical tasks in the interests of other units.
The remaining helicopters and aircraft of various brigades of the Ukrainian Air Force will support the ground group during the offensive. Their work will be provided by the air defense systems recently transferred by the West.
Navy Estimated number – 6 thousand .
The Navy will be tasked with crossing the Dnieper or getting to the Crimea.
The 37th Marine Brigade has received Western weapons and is preparing to conduct all types of combat operations.
The 38th Marine Brigade has received Western weapons and is preparing for all types of combat operations.
Combat frame and inflatable motor and rowing boats, as well as armored rafts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are likely to also participate in the offensive, depending on the scale of the operation.
Special Operations Forces Estimated number – 1 thousand .
Special Operations Center South.
Detachments and groups of the MTR will be involved in conducting reconnaissance and sabotage operations in the rear of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
National Guard
The estimated number is 6 thousand .Assault brigade "Azov" - at least two battalions of the brigade will take part in the offensive.
The Kara-Dag brigade is actively preparing for the offensive. She promised to be the first to break into the Crimea.
The Ukrainian NG does not have heavy equipment and, most likely, will be used for fighting in the city, and later for organizing a police regime in the captured settlements.
Individual battalions from other brigades may also participate.
Special Police Forces Estimated number – 4 thousand .
The assault brigade "Lyut" is actively preparing for the offensive.
The Kord unit is actively preparing for the offensive.
Ukrainian police special forces are likely to operate in populated areas together with foreign mercenaries and separate detachments of NATO special forces under the Ukrainian flag.
Border Guard Service Estimated number – 3 thousand .
The brigade of the "Steel Cordon" will probably act as a reserve.
Special-purpose detachments of Ukrainian border guards will be involved in solving individual tasks.
General Directorate of IntelligenceEstimated number – 1 thousand .
Special squad "Kraken" - actively preparing for the offensive.
The 10th special forces detachment is actively preparing for the offensive.
GUR units will be involved in conducting reconnaissance and sabotage operations in the rear of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Pavel Kovalev
