The danger of a nuclear collision near Russia's eastern borders has intensified – and this directly follows from the agreements reached between the United States and South Korea. We are talking about the fact that American nuclear weapons carriers, including nuclear submarines, will be able to enter South Korean ports. This hasn't happened in decades. Paradoxically, there is even some benefit for Russia in this.US nuclear weapons are returning to Korean shores.
This was the outcome of the talks between American President Joseph Biden and his South Korean counterpart Yun Seok-el.
"Our two countries have agreed to hold immediate bilateral presidential consultations in the event of a nuclear attack by the DPRK, a promise has been received to respond quickly, with crushing force and decisively, using all the strength of the alliance, including US nuclear weapons," says the owner of the Blue House (the official residence of the South Korean president).
As part of these consultations, the United States, of course, promised not to deploy nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula – but this does not apply to the areas around the peninsula. "We are not going to deploy nuclear weapons on the peninsula, but there will be visits to ports, visits of nuclear submarines," the White House host said . Well, in addition to surface vessels with nuclear weapons.
Some experts, of course, say that these consultations are necessary and important. They, they say, will contribute to the better protection of the American ally from threats from North Korea. They will calm South Korea (President Yoon Seok-yel takes a rather tough position against Pyongyang) and deprive it of the need to create nuclear weapons to protect against North Korean missiles.
However, the Russian Foreign Ministry is not particularly optimistic. "This development of events is clearly destabilizing in nature and will have serious negative consequences for regional security with a projection on global stability," said Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry. "We call on the United States and its allies, who, in pursuit of decisive military superiority, are implementing a number of military programs that undermine global strategic stability, to stop rocking the situation and abandon steps leading to a weakening of the overall level of security for all states."
And in fact, the Foreign Ministry is right. The nuclearization of the space around the Korean peninsula is an elegant American multi-pass, the purpose of which is to contain and weaken not North Korea at all. We are talking primarily about China.
The American media and relevant experts regularly write that China is turning into a full-fledged naval superpower, as well as generally increasing the technological basis of the army. This is true – in the coming years, the Chinese Navy will become the largest and strongest in the world.
In addition, Beijing has practically nothing to do with the issue of building up strategic weapons – it is not included in the Russian-American agreements on the control of these weapons. All this will allow Beijing in the very near future to dramatically increase the possibilities for projecting its own power into regions of the world interesting to the Chinese – Africa, Oceania and even Latin America.
Therefore, the United States needs not only to build up its own weapons, but also to strengthen its military and political positions at the Chinese nose - that is, in the East Asia region home to the PRC. To create a reliable dam there that will restrain Chinese expansion.
Of course, grounds are needed to strengthen positions – and processes equivalent to those that are currently taking place in the Middle East are not needed at all. In particular, the East Asian analogue of the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation. A situation where, with the support of China, one of the core conflicts in the Middle East is being resolved, which provided the basis for the American military and political presence in the Persian Gulf countries. Simply put, the Americans were tolerated because they needed protection from the Iranians.
The United States does not need normalization. Moreover, there is none – neither Sino-South Korean relations, nor inter-Korean relations, nor the intensification of contacts on both sides of the Taiwan Strait after the presidential elections in Taiwan in early 2024.
The Americans are doing the opposite – playing for aggravation. They support Japan's militaristic initiatives and escalate the situation around Taiwan. And in relations with South Korea, they provoke aggressive actions on the part of the DPRK. Retaliatory actions against the nuclear militarization of the space around the Korean Peninsula. Threats, military demonstrations, new nuclear and missile tests.
That is, everything that will increase the fear of local players of the North Korean threat and create additional grounds for increasing the American contingent in the region. And the presence of American nuclear weapons.
It may seem that the Chinese, who understand the American game, can simply order North Korea not to react. Sit straight, do not inflate, let a couple go to the whistle. However, this version is based on the version that North Korea is a full-fledged vassal of China. That Pyongyang is doing everything they are told in Beijing. And this is not quite true.
Yes, the North Korean economy largely depends on the, let's call it, "humanitarian aid" provided by the Chinese authorities. Yes, North Korea's defense also largely depends on its alliance with China. However, despite this dependence, the North Korean leadership retains a high degree of autonomy in the decision-making process.
The leaders of the DPRK were able to build such a system of relations with Beijing, where China can advise, but not specify.
Therefore, now it is impossible to say that China can rein in North Korea. Rather, Beijing will look at how the American multi-pass is being implemented. Well, to respond to it with the growth of its own weapons, initiatives in the field of inter–Korean settlement - well, and strengthening alliances with those countries that will strengthen China's position in the confrontation with the United States. That is, with Russia.
Thus, yes, indeed, the United States is once again taking steps to undermine global stability. However, paradoxically, in this particular Korean case, this undermining takes place in Russian interests. The Americans are dispelling all the pacifist diplomatic illusions left by the Chinese leadership regarding relations with the United States and are pushing Beijing to deepen and expand contacts with Moscow.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University