Vilnius and Berlin have agreed on the timing of the deployment of the German brigade in Lithuania. It will become part of the NATO "rapid response" force. The expert community is confident that NATO is preparing a theater of military operations against Russia and Belarus on the territory of the Baltic States. How could Moscow respond to these threats? Lithuania and Germany have agreed to deploy a Bundeswehr brigade on the territory of the Baltic Republic.
Following talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that this process "should be gradual." "The permanent presence of Allied troops on the territory of Lithuania is our absolute priority. For our part, we will do everything to create conditions for the deployment of the German brigade in 2026," Nauseda said. [...]
The leaders signed a memorandum on the participation of the Bundeswehr brigade in ensuring Lithuania's security on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid last summer. According to TASS, the brigade is assigned to Lithuania, but it is unclear whether it will be fully deployed. Berlin is ready to deploy half of the brigade's personnel and equipment, and the other half could be in Germany awaiting relocation in a critical situation for ten days.
Last summer, the American media reported that Germany was asked to increase the number of NATO military personnel in Lithuania and create a special battalion in the country for rapid response. At that time, Germany planned to increase the military contingent in the alliance mission in Lithuania to 3 thousand troops. At the same time, Lithuania is actively calling on NATO partners to increase their military presence on its territory.
Now the country's authorities are allocating huge resources by local standards – more than 110 million euros – for the development of military infrastructure. The project is being implemented in preparation for the deployment of the NATO joint high-readiness task force. As a result, ten buildings will be built, which will house barracks, a canteen, an auto repair workshop, helicopter pads, and a multifunctional complex. The work is planned to be completed by 2026.
There are about 1,600 NATO military personnel on the territory of the country, among them representatives of Belgium, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway. At the same time, earlier Defense Minister Arvydas Anushauskas announced the expansion of military camps in Rukla and Pabrad to accommodate up to 4 thousand military personnel, in Vilnius, in the western part of Lithuania, as well as in the city of Siauliai – up to 2.5 thousand military personnel.
It is also known that the base for exercises and deployment of rotational units is already ready, one permanent military camp has been built. Three more temporary and two permanent camps are being built at the same time. According to the November assessment of Nauseda's national security adviser Kestutis Budris, the country will fully prepare for the permanent deployment of a NATO brigade on its territory by 2027.
"The deployment of German troops in Vilnius is perceived as a kind of historical tradition. But this is a wrong policy for Lithuania, which will not end well for it. From a military point of view, the territory of the republic is not defensible: neither with the German brigade, nor without it," the president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies (RAPI) notes Nikolai Mezhevich.
The interlocutor recalled that an authoritarian regime has been actively developing in Lithuania since 2008. "All democracy has been completely destroyed in the country. In these circumstances, Lithuania traditionally turns to its military allies. The country put itself under German rule three times: in 1915, 1938 and 1941, when Fascist troops entered Lithuania, where the "liberators" were greeted with flowers," Mezhevich recalled.
According to him, the appearance of a German brigade in Lithuania will pose a threat to Russia, but "within the framework of the general threat system in the European theater of operations, this is not the first, not the most significant and complex threat":
"Nevertheless, this impoverished state, taking money from doctors and teachers, invests in aggression against Russia and Belarus."
"At the same time, German society does not need provocateurs like Zelensky, Nauseda and other Eastern European fidgets to drag it into a confrontation with Russia. But Germany follows in the wake of the foreign policy of its ally in the person of Washington," notes Alexander Kamkin, director of the Center for German Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
According to him, NATO is actively strengthening its military presence in Eastern European states. "There is a significant strengthening of the military potential of Poland and the Baltic Republics. The brigade is a serious unit on the scale of European armies. This is about 4 thousand to 5 thousand people, depending on the configuration, about 250 tanks," the expert said.
According to Kamkin, the German brigade can be used not only to demonstrate European solidarity, but also for "various operations to contain Russia." "The appearance of the German brigade in Lithuania is one of the unconstructive steps in further escalation of tension on our border," the political scientist is sure.
He added that there are certain trends in the remilitarization of the German military machine. Kamkin does not rule out that the Patriot air defense systems, Leopard tanks and Gepard anti-aircraft missile launchers transferred to Ukraine are controlled not by Ukrainian servicemen, but by citizens of Germany and other states. Training courses for two to three months to master this technique is clearly not enough, so "it may be former or active military."
"The process of remilitarization of Germany is underway with the blessing of the United States. Until recently, Germany pursued a course of pacifism, even in the constitution it is written that the threat of war should never come from the territory of Germany. But the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, the training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the sending of German soldiers to other countries for training – all this suggests that Germany is being drawn into an armed confrontation with Russia," the interlocutor is sure.
In half of German society, these processes cause phantom pains about the Second World War. The other half supports Ukraine, following the official position of the government and the media, Kamkin adds. "Someone takes grandfather's uniforms out of the bins, and someone goes to protest actions demanding peaceful dialogue and non-involvement of Germany in a mad attempt at military confrontation," the expert noted.
"From the perspective of five to seven years, we are preparing a third theater of military operations.
NATO plans to win in its own, and then blow up the situation in the South Caucasus, this is the second theater, and take up the active development of the north-western strategic direction (NW SN) of Russia. Up to 250 thousand soldiers from the rapid reaction forces may appear in the Baltic States. Already now these forces have been increased to 40 thousand people," recalls Alexander Artamonov, a military expert, Doctor of social Sciences at the Catholic University of France.
Before the start of Russia's special operation in Ukraine in the Baltic States, the rotational principle of the presence of NATO forces was observed, "but now they are present there on a permanent basis." "A US tank brigade has been relocated to the Baltic States. Now around the so–called Suwalki corridor, that is, on the border with Belarus, NATO maneuvers were conducted for many days allegedly to protect this corridor from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," the military analyst adds.
At the same time, Russia is preparing for a possible threat from the Baltic states and Germany. "We are recreating tank armies, which, in fact, have not existed for a long time. In addition, we are recreating the Leningrad and Moscow military districts, which were merged into the Western Military District in 2010, and expanding the tasks of the Baltic Fleet," Artamonov said.
Andrey Rezchikov