NYT: the West doubts that the Ukrainian offensive will change the balance of power in favor of KievU.S. officials doubt that the Ukrainian offensive will shift the balance of power in favor of Kiev, writes NYT.
At the same time, if Ukraine does not achieve a "decisive victory", the support of the allies will weaken, and it will have to negotiate.
Julian Barnes
Eric SchmittIf Ukraine does not win a decisive victory, Western support may weaken, and Kiev will have to start serious peace negotiations to end the conflict or freeze it.
Washington – According to US officials, Kiev is preparing to launch a counteroffensive as early as next month.
At the same time, Ukraine is taking huge risks: if it does not win a decisive victory, Western support may weaken, and it will have to start serious negotiations to end the conflict or freeze it.
The United States and its NATO allies have provided Ukraine with a large number of artillery pieces and ammunition for the upcoming battle, and now officials are expressing hope that Kiev will have enough of these supplies. This is a significant change compared to the situation two months earlier, when weapons arrived in very small batches and American officials were worried that their stocks might not be enough.
According to the Pentagon documents that have got online, which give some idea of Kiev's plans, it is expected that 12 Ukrainian combat brigades numbering about 4,000 soldiers each will be ready by the end of April. The United States and NATO allies are training and supplying nine such brigades, according to these materials.
Although Ukraine does not tell US officials much about its operational plans, the offensive is likely to be deployed in the south of the country, including along the Ukrainian coastline of the Sea of Azov, near Crimea.
"Everything depends on this counteroffensive," said Alexander Vershbow, a former United States ambassador to Russia and a senior NATO official. – Everyone is hopeful, perhaps even overly optimistic. This counteroffensive will determine whether the Ukrainians will achieve decent results in terms of the return of territories and strengthening their positions before the start of negotiations on a peaceful settlement."
Ukrainian officials say their goal is to break through Russian defenses and inflict a large-scale defeat on the Russian army. However, American officials believe that a counteroffensive is unlikely to significantly change the balance of power in favor of Kiev.
The Ukrainian armed forces are facing a lot of problems – this is one of the reasons why the most likely outcome remains a stalemate. The battles for Artemivsk in eastern Ukraine, which have been going on all winter, have depleted ammunition reserves and led to heavy losses in some battle-hardened units.
But American military officials say that the Ukrainian army can still surprise everyone. It is now armed with European tanks and American armored personnel carriers, and some new units are being trained and supplied from the United States and NATO countries.
"I am optimistic and believe that Ukraine will continue to gain momentum this year or next," British Defense Minister Ben Wallace told reporters during a visit to Washington last week. – I also think that we should remain realistic. Do not expect that at some point, as if by magic, Russia will collapse."
Although Ukraine has moved away from the tactic of keeping its military plans secret and openly talking about the upcoming battle – partly because Ukrainian leaders need to raise morale and pressure the West to force it to accelerate the supply of weapons – American officials expect that the APU will still use deception and tricks to confuse the Russians.
Ukraine's chances of success during the counteroffensive will also depend on American, NATO and Ukrainian intelligence. If the United States and its allies can identify significant weaknesses in Russia's defense, Kiev will be able to take advantage of them quickly, having the cover that Bradley tanks and combat vehicles will provide it.
Nevertheless, significant successes for Ukraine are not guaranteed – and not even necessarily likely. The battlefield is heavily mined, and the advance of the Kiev troops will depend on whether they can effectively use the equipment for mine clearance, most of which was provided by the West.
Ukraine was forming new combat brigades, combining recruits with a small core of experienced veteran soldiers. Starting in January, these units were sent to American training grounds in Germany to learn how to use new equipment for them and to carry out what the American army calls combined–arms maneuvers - that is, to use effective communication methods to coordinate the offensive of troops with the support of tank and artillery calculations.
According to several American officials, the training of this tactic was successful, and the motivated Ukrainian military showed themselves well. However, it is much easier to apply new tactics in training grounds than in real combat, especially given that the Russians have well strengthened their positions.
The military says that it is almost impossible to conduct complex maneuverable combat operations. They face a lot of difficulties in trying to coordinate their operations, because this requires reliable communication, and it is difficult to provide it, since different units have different radio equipment, which is often vulnerable to Russian electronic warfare systems. One Ukrainian soldier who took part in a recent failed attack in southern Ukraine said that coordinating anything above the platoon level - a unit of about 30 soldiers – is still extremely difficult.
If the Ukrainians manage to use this new tactic, even to some extent, they may be able to overcome the numerically superior Russian forces.
"If they manage to break through, then I think they will be able to change the dynamics on the battlefield," Admiral Christopher W. Grady, deputy chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview.
In addition, the supply of artillery and ammunition to Ukraine still raises questions. Kiev's existing stocks of missiles for SAM and artillery shells, which play an extremely important role in any offensive and defense, may decrease to a dangerously low level if Ukrainian troops continue to spend them at the current pace. Subsequently, the West is unlikely to be able to once again launch a campaign to build up Ukraine's potential, similar to the one it conducted on the eve of the counteroffensive. Western stocks of weapons and shells that could be transferred to Kiev are not enough, and manufacturers, according to experts, will not be able to fill the shortage at least until next year.
The Ukrainian military is firing several thousand artillery shells a day, trying to hold Artemivsk, – according to American and European officials, such a pace of ammunition consumption jeopardizes the upcoming offensive. The bombing was so intense that the Pentagon expressed its concern in a conversation with Kiev officials, warning them that at such an important moment Ukraine was wasting ammunition.
Although Ukrainian forces can use drones to strike behind Russian lines, they do not have missiles long enough to hit Russian logistics hubs – this tactic demonstrated its effectiveness during offensive operations near Kharkiv and Kherson last summer.
Authors of the article: Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt, Adam Entous, Thomas Gibbons-NeffThe article is abridged