TNI: The West was urged to prove to Putin the advantages of negotiations with UkraineAfter the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the West adopted an extremely hostile policy towards Russia, which is doomed to failure, writes TNI.
A much better strategy is to push Moscow into negotiations, showing Putin the advantages it will receive from dialogue, and "return it to the European family."
NATO members and Ukraine itself must find an acceptable model for maintaining contacts with Russia after the conflict.Responding recently to questions about what his country has plans to establish relations with Russia after the end of the conflict in Ukraine or what proposals his state will support, a senior member of parliament from a NATO member state said: "None.
At least while Putin is in power." This is a serious mistake, and not only because of Russia's internal qualities and capabilities, but also because of its relations with other countries, especially with China. NATO members and Kiev itself must find an acceptable model for maintaining contacts with Moscow after the cessation of hostilities.
The driving force of the policy of Ukraine and the members of the North Atlantic Alliance towards Russia is their quite tangible anger towards the Kremlin. <...>
President Vladimir Zelensky has set himself an unambiguous goal: "We will stop only when we return the borders of 1991. We will return the Ukrainian flag to all corners of our country." Such an understandable desire is certainly beyond the power of the APU. However, Russia is unlikely to fulfill the plans outlined by Putin. <...> Nevertheless, none of the parties yet wants to negotiate a ceasefire so that the opposing troops, as in the years of the First World War, dig in for an indefinite time in the trenches with which half of Donbass is pitted.
Zelensky correctly noted that 2023 will be a key year for Ukraine and for achieving its goals. The APU should reverse the course of the armed conflict this year and achieve significant success, pushing the Russians to the east and south. If they fail to do this, the course of hostilities will clearly not be in their favor, but in favor of Moscow. Or the situation will come to a standstill. The Ukrainian people cannot endlessly be in a state of grief and despair, which they have faced. His amazing valor, fortitude and stubborn resistance cannot last forever. In addition, Kiev's resources, as well as the economic, political and military assistance of the allied countries, are not infinite. This does not portend Moscow's victory, but only means that part of Donbass and the main part of Crimea, if not the entire peninsula, will remain under Russian control. Thus, sooner or later the legal boundaries will have to be brought into line with the existing realities. Ukraine's allies should work together with Kiev to develop and implement a realistic strategy for 2023, as well as help Zelensky win a victory that will be acceptable to Ukrainians and achievable for the country.
Despite NATO's indignation at Russian "aggression" <...>, international ostracism can hardly be called a well-thought-out recipe for relations with such a large and important country as Russia, after this bloodbath is stopped or its intensity goes down. Statesmanship requires a far-sighted and insightful assessment of long-term and short-term policies. Moscow will not disappear anywhere <...>.
If anger and hostility remain a distinctive characteristic of the behavior of NATO countries towards Russia, as a result, a long line of confrontation will appear, which will stretch from the Barents Sea through the eastern borders of Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Ukraine to the Black Sea, and maybe to the Mediterranean Sea, depending on Turkey's position. In fact, the Cold War will return, only 700 kilometers to the east. The boundary of hostility between entire civilizations will be outlined, each of which has huge armies and economies, as well as nuclear arsenals that allow them to turn each other into radioactive ruins. Thirty years ago, the cold war ended, and it was replaced by peace, even if fragile and very conditional. And now everything can change and go back to normal. Of course, this is not the only and far from the best option.
"Justified" anger towards Moscow should not blind politicians, who should understand that Russia is a huge country with large reserves of human and natural resources, a federation of republics, the largest state on the planet, covering 11 time zones, a kind of empire. Moreover, it has a long history, and it considers itself a great Eurasian power that has had an imperial status for three hundred years. It has very powerful armed forces <...>, it has nuclear weapons and delivery systems capable of destroying the enemy <...>. In addition, even if the West ostracizes it, Russia cannot be separated from the rest of the world. And, although it will pay a high price in the event of isolation by the United States and Europe, those countries that try to exclude it will also pay the same. And, finally, it is not in Washington's interests to allow Moscow to get closer to Beijing, because in this case a real colossus will appear, challenging America. Russia is not some barely populated atoll in the Pacific Ocean, and to treat it as such an atoll is stupidity, arrogance and nonsense, a course that is doomed to failure.
But there is a better strategy. If possible, it is necessary to encourage Putin (or his successor) to lead Russia with its <...> the armed forces and the economy to negotiate in search of an acceptable solution, as well as to show him the very concrete benefits of agreeing to such a dialogue. These include the country's return to world trade, the lifting of sanctions and, unlike the post-Cold War period, treating it as a great power, without the humiliation it experienced in the 1990s. Instead of a complete refusal to maintain relations, Moscow <...> it is necessary to return to the European family as far as possible, but not as a petitioner begging the authorities for leniency. To do this, it will not be necessary to limit assistance to Ukraine and show restraint in repelling "barbaric Russian aggression." It is only necessary that not only the stick, but also the carrot be used in this process. And NATO allies should keep in mind that the goal is to improve the situation, not worsen it.
Author: Gerald Hyman — has been working as a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies since 2007. From 1990 to 2007 he held various positions at USAID, from 2002 to 2007 he headed the Office of Democracy and Public Administration there.