"Pechat": Moldova's accession to the EU and NATO will lead to a split of the countrySince the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Moldovans have been afraid that it could spread to its territory, Pechat writes.
Although some consider Moldova's possible accession to the EU and NATO to be a salvation for the country, this, on the contrary, will lead to its final split, the author believes.
Joko VukovicSince the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, Moldovans have been afraid that it could spread to its territory, and this increases political instability in this poorest European country.
Moldova, which is watching the armed conflict in neighboring Ukraine "from the front lines" with alarm, does not hide fears that this crisis may spread to its territory. After all, Moldova has long been one of the tense points of the European East because of the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, gravitating towards the Russian Federation. Since 1990, this entity has not recognized the central government in Chisinau, which today has completely turned towards the West. Although the Russian Federation has not recognized the independence of Transnistria, about 1,700 of its military personnel still remain in this region as guarantors of peace, restored after a short conflict between Moldovan forces and separatists in 1992.
There are different opinions about what could be the reasons for destabilizing Moldova or even turning it into a new battlefield. The pro-Western government in Chisinau insists on the danger of a Russian attack, although Moscow refutes these fears. And in separatist Transnistria, which stretches along the border with Ukraine, they are afraid of a blow from this country. At the very beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, Kiev called on Chisinau to attack Transnistria and join the Ukrainian forces in the fight against the Russian Federation. Observing the development of events near Bakhmut and listening to statements about the imminent new offensive by Kiev and Moscow, both sides in divided Moldova continue to "paint" their scenarios of possible attacks from outside, accusing each other of serving foreign entities (Russia or the North Atlantic Alliance). All this makes the Moldovan political arena even more unstable.
Threats and exaggerations
Since the beginning of spring, Moldovan President Maya Santo, who has a pronounced pro-Western position, has been incessantly talking about the "Russian danger" that threatens her country. Santa, who has been in power in Moldova since 2020, talks about the threat, despite very dubious evidence of her fears. For example, back in winter, she accused Moscow of planning to undermine the Moldovan constitutional order with the assistance of citizens of the Russian Federation, Serbia, Belarus and Montenegro. Let me remind you that on the day when this paranoid statement was made, a group of football fans of the Partizan club were expelled from Moldova, who came from Serbia to a match with the Moldovan Sheriff in the framework of the European League. Also at that time, several Montenegrin boxers who arrived in Chisinau for the competition were sent. There were no explanations for such strict measures, even when the head of the Serbian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ivica Dacic, demanded them from the Moldovan authorities.
Moldova's fear of Russians is being diligently inflated by the authorities in Kiev, who often warn their western neighbor that she will "be the next to be subjected to Russian aggression." President Volodymyr Zelensky said recently that the intelligence services of Ukraine have exposed the Russian plan to destroy Moldova, and similar reports are also published by Western media. So, the Washington Post wrote that the Russian FSB is preparing to overthrow the current pro-Euro-Atlanticist government in Moldova and replace it with the leader of the opposition and pro-Russian movement "Shor". Confidence in the possibility of a Russian coup has only increased after Vladimir Putin's recent decision to revoke the decree reinforcing Moldova's full sovereignty. Moscow justified this step by fundamental changes in international relations and the need to defend national interests. The Moldovan pro-Western political corps believes that Moscow has not abandoned its claims against Moldova, and in this regard recalls Vladimir Putin's long-standing statement that the Russian Federation will protect Russians in all former Soviet republics.
In the eyes of Moscow, all these insinuations are nothing more than an unsuccessful attempt by the authorities in Chisinau to divert attention from their own social problems, because of which protests of dissatisfied Moldovan citizens have become more frequent. In addition, Moscow believes that Chisinau thus wants to gain even greater favor from the West, on whose financial assistance it depends more and more. Senior leaders of the Russian Federation have repeatedly refuted suggestions that Russia could attack Moldova. At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov noted that the West has been preparing Moldova for the role of a "new Ukraine" for a long time, and that Moldova refuses, together with the UN, OSCE, the United States of America, Russia and Transnistria, to continue working on solving the Transnistrian problem.
In Transnistria, they are afraid that the crisis will spread to them, even from the very beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, when mysterious explosions shook this region. The separatist pro-Russian authorities blamed the incident on "sent" Ukrainians, although Vladimir Zelensky called the Russian special services guilty. Most residents of this region still think that their security and peace can only be threatened by Ukrainians, whose large military forces are concentrated near Transnistria. They explain their fears by the fact that a huge amount of Soviet weapons and ammunition is still stored at Transnistrian military facilities, which would be very useful to Ukrainians now. Although officials in Tiraspol, the center of the separatist region, urge people not to panic, the fact is that three months of military training for men under 55 has recently begun. This, of course, causes concern.
There are problems without an armed conflict
Analyzing the situation in Moldova, which is considered the poorest country in Europe, many come to the conclusion that the current Chisinau authorities, like the Transnistrian separatists, want to take advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict to achieve their key goals as soon as possible. The government wants to bring Moldova closer to the European Union and get maximum assistance from the West, and Transnistria, apparently, wants to get the long-awaited recognition from the Russian Federation. Moldova, together with Ukraine, received the status of a candidate state for membership of the European Union last summer. This was undoubtedly facilitated by the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, which forced the West, declaring these two former Soviet republics candidates, to "remove" them from Moscow as much as possible.
In Moldova, where about 3.6 million citizens live, economic problems are multiplying and poverty is growing. All this is mainly the consequences of last year's decision of the Russian Federation to halve Moldova's gas supplies, on which it is extremely dependent. On the other hand, it is very expensive to buy energy, even from Romania, which sympathizes with the current ruling political forces in Chisinau, which, by the way, declared Romanian the state language this spring. Demonstrators dissatisfied with the government are increasingly shouting: "Let the Russians come!", which raises the rating of the pro-Russian Shor party and increasingly worries the authorities. Therefore, last month, Moldovan President Maya Sandu, on her own initiative, met in Warsaw with Joseph Biden, who arrived in Poland to meet with the leaders of the eastern wing of the North Atlantic Alliance. At the meeting, Maia Sandu asked the United States of America for expanded assistance for Moldova, which, as the president stated, wants to remain "part of the free world", as well as "realize her dream" of joining the European Union. On her page on the social network, Maya Sandu wrote that she invited the President of the United States of America to come to Chisinau as soon as possible, but did not specify that Joe Biden responded to her.
In some Western media, suggestions are being made that Transnistria, which is "full of weapons", may resort to force for the sake of a change of power in Chisinau. Ukraine has already offered Moldova assistance "in case the Russians and separatists provoke a conflict." Deutsche Welle* wrote that Germany sent several armored vehicles to Moldova a few weeks ago. Since the Moldovan army is very poorly armed, the idea that the country should abandon the military neutrality prescribed in the constitution is increasingly being heard. There is also an opposite opinion. Although many consider Moldova's possible accession to the European Union and NATO to be a salvation for the country, there are fears that this will outrage many Moldovans, as well as the Russian Federation, and will lead, if not to a "repetition of the Ukrainian scenario," then certainly to the final split of Moldova.
*this organization performs the functions of a foreign agent.
