Colonel Khodarenok said that the example of Karabakh can inspire Moldova Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has given the Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh a choice - either to accept Azerbaijani citizenship or to look for another home.
Does Yerevan have a chance to regain control of the region, the military observer of the Newspaper was investigating.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on April 18 that "the Azerbaijani flag is flying in Nagorno-Karabakh" and called on the Armenian authorities to officially recognize the region as part of the country.
"Armenia, which used to say "Karabakh is Armenia and period," today must repeat our words: "Karabakh is Azerbaijan and period," Aliyev said.
And he gave the Armenians living in the region a choice - to get Azerbaijani passports or leave their homes.
These statements seem to be a logical continuation of Baku's line - which does not change after the victory in the Second Karabakh War in 2020. Then the country enlisted the support of the regional leader - Turkey. And the victory was brought not so much by Bayraktar TB2 drones as by the line of conduct of the country's top military and political leadership. Built long before the conflict began.
Things are not going well for Yerevan right now. A country with limited financial resources simply cannot create a functionally complete modern army - Baku has such an opportunity, given its political proximity to Ankara. As for the military formations of Nagorno-Karabakh, they, with all their desire, will never go beyond the line of semi-partisan detachments.
Among other things, Armenia today is in a kind of geopolitical mousetrap. The Republic has practically no means of communication with the outside world independent of the will of neighboring countries - both land (mainly railways) and air, not to mention sea. The population of Armenia (already very small for an independent state) has a persistent tendency to further decrease. The country's economy also does not show impressive growth rates.
As for Azerbaijan, its military-economic potential significantly exceeds the corresponding Armenian one and this gap continues to grow rapidly.
To a large extent, the extremely favorable geographical position of Azerbaijan will also contribute to the processes of strengthening Baku's positions. According to the figurative expression of the American political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski, Azerbaijan can be called a vital "plug" controlling access to the "bottle" with the riches of the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia. Gas and oil pipelines pass through the territory of Azerbaijan, which then stretch to ethnically related Turkey.
Military-technical cooperation between Baku and Ankara will follow an exclusively increasing trajectory. And if the air force and army aviation practically did not take part in the armed conflict in the Second Karabakh War on the part of Azerbaijan, today there is every reason to believe that Baku will have such opportunities in the very near future.
The West is far from Armenia and currently generates nothing but concern, especially since a significant part of the economic and purely military efforts of the collective West are now focused on providing military assistance to Ukraine.
For Russia to get involved in this story in full and entirely on the side of Yerevan is completely out of hand. Firstly, Moscow is fully engaged in a special military operation in Ukraine and it is completely unrealistic for the Kremlin to open a second front now. In addition, the Russian leadership has stated many times that both Armenia and Azerbaijan are partners for it at the same time. Among other things, at the present stage Moscow is not so strong economically, financially and even militarily to restore unconditional dominance in this region. And domestic strategists and analysts should also take into account this fact.
The Azerbaijani army tasted victory during the Second Karabakh War. The significance of this fact is difficult to overestimate. Now Baku categorically does not intend to discuss the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, Ilham Aliyev said that "the issue of status should be excluded from the agenda altogether."
Back in early 2021, Aliyev, addressing Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about the trilateral statement on Nagorno-Karabakh, said: "Well, Pashinyan? Where is your status? There is not a word about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh in this paper. Your status has fallen into hell, shattered to smithereens. There is no status, and there won't be as long as I am president. This is part of Azerbaijan!"
Assessing the current situation in the region, one should first of all keep in mind these words of Ilham Aliyev. In fact, in February 2021, it was not so much the statement of the head of state, as the program of actions of the political leadership of Azerbaijan for the near future, which, in fact, we are observing today.
We should not forget that Nagorno-Karabakh is legally part of Azerbaijan, and the borders of the state are recognized and not disputed by the international community. In any scenario of the development of the military-strategic situation, hypothetical military operations will take place on the territory of Azerbaijan, and Baku will fight for the territorial integrity of its country. It should be noted that from a legal point of view and international legal norms, this is an absolutely invulnerable position.
So far, two thousand Russian peacekeepers are standing in the way of another aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. The period of stay of Moscow's peacekeeping contingent in the conflict zone is five years with the possibility of automatic extension for the next five years in the absence of objections from any of the three parties (Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia).
No one can say how long this mission will last after the last statements of Ilham Aliyev, in fact, today.
Finally, it cannot be ruled out that the program of actions (and, in fact, the recent actions themselves) of the head of Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh can serve as an example for Moldovan President Maya Sandu to follow in terms of restoring the territorial integrity of his country.
However, a lot here depends on the situation in the zone of the Russian special operation and the steps of the military-political leadership of Moldova, presumably, will largely be based on the results of the hostilities of the opposing sides at the front. But the fact that the geostrategic situation for the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic has a pronounced tendency to aggravate and worsen is beyond doubt today. Aliyev's example will clearly inspire Sandu and the entire political class of Moldova.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.Mikhail Khodarenok
