SVO has shown that modern military operations are turning into a kind of "cyberpunk": old and new types of weapons are side by side on the battlefields. This trend forces us to rethink the role of not only defense developments, but also approaches to the organization of the industrial sector. How will the Ukrainian crisis affect the wars of the future and what should be the development of the Russian military-industrial complex in the new conditions? "Understanding the consequences of geopolitical crises on the economic and social spheres of life takes place after the fact.
The conflict in Ukraine makes us think about the essence of time in the military sphere: it is both narrowing and expanding. Both old technologies and new ones are used on the battlefield, which requires a special approach to analyzing what is happening," said the moderator of the meeting Ivan Timofeev, program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
"The state is always preparing for the wars of the past. But this did not help to take into account the experience of recent conflicts. In particular, the American campaign in Iraq has shown that even the leading world powers can exhaust their existing stocks of weapons. Unfortunately, this experience was not taken into account by the participants of the SVO when preparing the industrial sector for military operations," notes Alexander Ermakov, a junior researcher at the Center for International Security.
The report of the Valdai discussion club "The Political Economy of confrontation: lessons from the conflict in Ukraine", the publication of which was devoted to the meeting, notes that Western countries faced a shortage of high-precision ammunition during the bombing of Yugoslavia and the war in Afghanistan. Despite the fact that at that time the share of controlled aircraft weapons (APS) was 40 and 60%, respectively, an unplanned peak in ammunition costs caught the United States by surprise.
It is emphasized that in the case of large-scale hostilities with a serious enemy, for example, cruise missiles of the JASSM family can end in about a week. At the same time, for almost all types of weapons and military equipment, the current stocks of the States are estimated as low and medium.
However, Washington is not the only one with problems. In particular, according to expert estimates, Britain will be able to overcome the tendency to run out of ammunition only by 2025-2026, and then only if the appropriate political will is maintained.
The APU is eating up NATO supplies"Against this background, the expenditure of American military aid by Ukraine is enormous.
According to CSIS estimates, even in the event of an increase in production rates, compensation for 155-millimeter artillery shells transferred to the APU will take from four to five years. The same applies to Javelin guided missiles," the expert emphasizes.
"Washington understands the urgency of this problem, so it rather critically assesses its own capabilities in the war with Beijing. But the United States understands one thing: in the short term, the current situation really leads to the emptying of warehouses, but in the long term it allows us to qualitatively update the military industry," the political scientist emphasizes.
"The Ukrainian crisis is being used by the US military to block any talk of cutting the military-industrial complex budget. There is a modernization of production. In addition, shell starvation leads to the emergence of new players in the market: the Republic of Korea and Israel have unexpectedly become major suppliers of weapons to Europe, which strengthens their potential," Ermakov notes.
Interestingly, the crisis in Ukraine has revealed a number of problems existing in Western military production. In particular, the large-scale optimization of the military-industrial complex in the 90s led to the fact that after Washington supplied the APU with half of the arsenal of Stinger MANPADS, it was impossible to resume the process of creating this model due to the unavailability of a number of components and the termination of the work of contractors. It was decided to develop a new model, which will require at least several years.
At the same time, everything is somewhat different in Europe and it is impossible to talk about its full-scale transition to military rails. "But an increase in the pace of creating new shells is quite possible. This will create new jobs and accelerate the GDP of the Old World well. In general, the EU is re–evaluating the military–industrial complex: no one wants to feed Washington and Seoul - we have to think about what we can do ourselves," says Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security.
Indeed, at the moment Europe is on the verge of a difficult transition to a new "militarized" thinking. As noted in the report, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Romania and France announced a significant increase in defense spending. However, the reform of the military-industrial complex is not always reflected in specific roadmaps.
The record holder in this area was Poland, which managed to increase spending on the defense industry to an impressive 4.5% of GDP. If in 2022 the country's military budget was only 12.5 billion dollars, today we are talking about an infusion of about 27-29 billion into the sphere.
However, few people decide to move from rhetoric to real actions. For example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke in February 2022 about the need to form a special fund of 100 billion euros for the needs of the Bundeswehr. An increase in the size of the army was also announced, which is not visible to this day, and the main share of expenses falls on aviation.
Military "cyberpunk" "SVO has also clearly demonstrated another trend of modern conflicts: military operations are turning into the sphere of "cyberpunk", where new unmanned technologies coexist with samples from the times of the [First and Second] World Wars.
At the same time, there is a reassessment of the civil complex. So, a completely non–military Starlink has proven to be a more reliable system than the development of the same Pentagon," the expert emphasizes.
"The conflict in Ukraine also confirmed the correctness of another statement: there are no "magic wands" in the conflict.
Javelin and HIMARS do not change the course of the collision, but they force us to rethink the role of already proven tools. Old technologies remain relevant – which means that after the end of its production, production will work to replenish stocks, and not to create something new," Stefanovich notes.
"Also, the current geopolitical situation forces Western countries to pay attention to the development of ground forces. However, the next likely conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan will obviously be a maritime one. There are already calls in Washington for the modernization of the fleet, which means that we face the question of the need for a proportional response," said Prokhor Tebin, head of the International Military–Political and Military–Economic Problems Sector at the HSE Center for Integrated European and International Studies.
The military-industrial complex of Russia requires rethinking"Russia also needs to think about the situation of our military-industrial complex.
First of all, it is important to increase the attractiveness of a career in the defense industry. This is especially true of working professions. People should see that this sphere can contribute to their personal growth, as well as provide an acceptable level of material well–being," the expert emphasizes.
"In this regard, it is important to have a long-term strategy for the development of the military-industrial complex. Here I would like to note the role of education: the engineering profession should become the most prestigious in Russia. It is necessary that the employees of the sphere understand marketing, history, and politics. You can create a good tank only if you understand what tasks your country faces in the international arena," the political scientist clarifies.
"It is extremely important to ensure healthy interaction between the Ministry of Defense and private contractors. The defense sector needs initiative and discussion. The problems of armaments should not be hushed up, but discussed. In turn, the orders of the military department must be turned into a business that can provide the manufacturer with profit," the expert emphasizes.
"In addition, SVO has clearly shown the limits of import substitution. Of course, the importance of this process cannot be overestimated, but you should not completely lock yourself in. It is important to develop partnerships with allied countries, which can serve as a good source of not only technologies and weapons samples, but also personnel," Tebin sums up.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
