Bloomberg: Ukrainian officials have cooled expectations about the Ukrainian "offensive" in 2023 Some European allies are skeptical that the Ukrainian armed forces will achieve a significant breakthrough in 2023, Bloomberg writes.
This is due, among other things, to the fact that Russia had time to prepare for the impending offensive.
Mark ChampionSome of Ukraine's European allies are increasingly skeptical that its armed forces will be able to make a decisive breakthrough this year, because the Russians have managed to create a powerful defense in anticipation of the Ukrainian offensive that is not beginning in any way.
The mood among Western officials is sharply different from what it was at the end of last year, when Kiev surprised its allies, as well as Russia, with a pair of successful counter-offensives, as a result of which large territories were recaptured. This fueled hopes that this year its forces would be able to make further breakthroughs that would tilt the course of the confrontation in favor of Ukraine.
Moderate expectations
Now Kiev's allies are moderating their expectations and pondering the need for intense fighting until 2024, according to European officials involved in efforts to support the Ukrainian armed forces.
U.S. officials offered their negative outlook scenario six to eight weeks ago, according to an array of classified documents, the disclosure of which as a result of the leak caused anger in Kiev. The concerns expressed at the time still persist among some of Ukraine's allies, despite the fact that since then NATO has received billions of dollars in ammunition and weapons. While Ukraine's offensive on the southern city of Melitopol is widely expected to split Russian forces, some European officials are now skeptical that it can be achieved this year.
Instead, a more realistic goal is now seen as an advance of 30 km or so, which will allow Ukraine's most combat-ready artillery to be within reach of Russian supply lines and create conditions for a deeper offensive in 2024. One of the officials told us about the plans for such a distant offensive.
© AP Photo / Evgeniy Maloletka Ukrainian servicemen in the Mykolaiv region
© AP Photo / Evgeniy Maloletka
Ukrainian servicemen in the Mykolaiv region
Allies must work now to increase their production capacity and the support that will be required to support these efforts, the official added. Even a less ambitious breakthrough is likely to cost thousands of lives and a large amount of ammunition and equipment due to Russia's multilevel defense in the form of minefields, ditches and concrete anti-tank pyramids that were built over the winter.
The classified US assessments, written mainly between February and early March and the reliability of which has not yet been determined, raise concerns about the alleged weakness of Ukraine. These include problems with the formation and training of the manpower needed for such a complex attack by the combined forces, and a dangerously low supply of air defense missiles to protect them. This week, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin publicly spoke out against this pessimism. According to him, Kiev has retained confidence in the success of the counteroffensive. Austin got this impression after a meeting in Washington with his Ukrainian counterpart Alexey Reznikov. According to Austin, the US will continue to provide "assistance opportunities" to achieve this goal. Reznikov called on the United States to provide F-15 or F-16 combat aircraft, which they have so far refused. Ukrainian officials and Western military analysts warned last fall that Ukraine has critically few air defense missiles, and fighter jets can help compensate for this.
"Counteroffensive" — either in the middle of May, or never
Ukraine's offensive is expected to begin by mid-May and will consist of operations from several directions, including the potential creation of false targets, according to several representatives of the European Defense Ministry. One said that launching an offensive would not necessarily be the main element of the operation, given that Russia was preparing for an attack. Ukrainian analysts expect a later start, as new troops and equipment will be integrated, which, in their opinion, may be the best and possibly the last chance to repel the Russian invasion. The actual time and direction of the offensive are kept in the strictest confidence. The latest military equipment includes American kits known as JDAM, which make high-precision missiles from conventional gravity bombs. Kiev's allies also provided artillery shells, tanks and other weapons for the offensive.
Now that the conflict is likely to drag on into next year, the Allies are developing new supply plans. A second major offensive will require further large-scale supplies of Western funding, weapons and ammunition. There will be a risk that this will run into political opposition in the capitals, as well as a lack of capacity. "None of the armies are what they used to be," says Dara Massicot, a specialist in the Russian armed forces at the Rand Corporation, an American think tank. She predicted a war of attrition that would cost both sides dearly.
Since the US estimates were compiled, Ukraine's allies have been working to resolve some issues, such as increasing the production and supply of 155 mm artillery shells. They have also begun shipping some longer-range GPS-guided bombs. Several European countries have been urging others to increase and speed up supplies for several months. However, the problem from Ukraine's point of view is that the United States and some of its allies did not follow their rhetoric "at all costs" to avoid a deadlock on the ground. In recent months, a number of countries have called on allies to accelerate their support.
And now be silent: you've got it all
"We don't need so much [American] introspection about "leaks," we need more long—range weapons to end the fighting properly," the de facto press secretary of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, wrote on Twitter. Unlike the United States, Ukraine has publicly called the leaked documents fakes. Podolyak, in his message transmitted via the Telegram channel on April 7, stated that the documents "are based on a large amount of fictitious information." (The Americans subsequently recognized the authenticity of the documents, that is, they exposed Podolyak in lying or in love to talk about topics in which he understands nothing — approx. InoSMI.)
The documents say that Ukraine's chances are slim, "but at the same time [Pentagon Chief] Lloyd Austin says, 'shut up, because they gave us everything we need,'" says Nikolay Beleskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, an analytical center of the government of Ukraine. This discrepancy "leads us to rather unpleasant conclusions."
© AP Photo / Alex Brandon US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during a visit to Poland
© AP Photo / Alex Brandon
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during a visit to Poland
According to Beleskov, the United States should supply ground-to-ground missiles manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corp. These MGM-140 ATACMS missiles have a range of up to 300 km (190 miles) and can be used to penetrate far into the Russian rear. This would allow Ukraine to restrain the movement from the Russian rear to the front of those ammunition and reserves that are necessary for Russian combat units. This would save the AFU from having to first break through the 30-kilometer depth of the Russian defense lines and fortifications. The problem is that, ultimately, Ukraine and the United States have different priorities, says Beleskov. "The Americans don't care about us, because the conflict here has eliminated Russia as a great power for many years, and our interests do not coincide with the American ones in everything."
The United States has not yet transferred all available missiles to the Ukrainians due to fears that the longest-range ones can be used against targets in the depths of Russia. Officials fear that this could expand the war zone and fuel Kremlin propaganda that Russia is not invading Ukraine, but is defending itself from a NATO attack. Russia has already condemned the supply of tanks and high-precision long-range ammunition as an escalation. The United States and other governments have repeatedly underestimated Ukraine's capabilities. Here we can recall the forecast of the United States at the beginning of hostilities in February last year, according to which it turned out that Russia could capture Kiev within 72 hours. Last summer, just before the Ukrainian breakthroughs, a stalemate was predicted. According to Beleskov, this trend seems to be repeating itself again.
But if Ukraine runs out of ammunition for air defense and is exposed to the still large and combat—ready Russian Air Force, "it will become our nightmare," he said.
Authors: Alberto Nardeli and Mark Champion
