EP: the political crisis in Bulgaria threatens Ukraine with a shortage of ammunitionThe political crisis in Bulgaria has caused the holding of snap elections, writes Evropeyska Pravda.
Some variants of their results may lead to the fact that Ukraine will lose direct supplies of ammunition for Soviet weapons.
Another snap election in Bulgaria may pose a threat to democracy in the country, and therefore the parties must make concessions in order to form a full-fledged government. This statement was made by Boyko Borisov, the former prime minister and chairman of the GERB party, which is the winner of the last parliamentary elections. However, there are frankly few chances that his calls will be heeded.
Read InoSMI in our Telegram channelThe elections held on the second of April became the fourth extraordinary.
But it seems that the next ones are not far off – there are almost no opportunities for forming an effective coalition. The deep political crisis strengthens the position of the country's president Rumen Radev, whose policy often plays into the hands of the Russian Federation. Moreover, every new election strengthens the position of the openly pro-Putin Renaissance party, which has already reached the third line and claims more.
Anti-system revenge
At first glance, there are simply no grounds for a political crisis in Bulgaria. At the last parliamentary elections, the first two places were taken by political forces that call the development of cooperation with partners from the EU and NATO a priority and advocate direct military assistance to Ukraine.
We are talking, first of all, about the GERB party ("Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria") of the already mentioned Boyko Borisov. In these elections, she stood together with the alliance of centrist forces of the SDS. Together they received 26.49% of the vote. In second place with a slight lag (24.56%) is another bloc consisting of the party "We Continue Changes", which is headed by another ex–Prime Minister Kirill Petkov, as well as "Democratic Bulgaria" – an alliance of three parties: "Yes, Bulgaria!", "Democrats for a strong Bulgaria" and "Greens".
The mandates received by these two political forces are quite enough to form a stable majority. However, the obstacle to this is the toxicity of the person of Boyko Borisov, the long–term head of Bulgaria, who is followed by a powerful corruption trail. A year ago, he was detained as part of a police operation related to investigations by the EU Prosecutor's Office. However, the detention was subsequently declared illegal, and Borisov retained his leadership in GERB, a party that had begun to lose popularity, but regained leadership in the current elections.
An additional motivation of some Bulgarian political forces not to cooperate with Borisov is the position of the United States regarding his entourage. About a month before the current elections, Washington imposed sanctions on Vladislav Goranov, the long-time finance minister from GERB, because of his involvement in corruption. It is rumored that the United States is also considering sanctions against Borisov, who supported the continuation of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, through which Russian gas enters Hungary, which led to instability of the country located on the eastern flank of NATO.
Ex-Prime Minister Petkov also has his own account with Borisov. His government was overthrown last summer, as he claims – "by the efforts of the Russian Federation and the mafia." By mafia, he means first of all Borisov, whose party voted for a vote of no confidence and the resignation of the government. But the sensation of the last election was the entry into third place of the openly pro-Russian party "Renaissance".
The party, headed by academician Kostadin Kostadinov, participates in the elections for the sixth time, step by step improving its result. The party entered the parliament on the fourth attempt, and now, thanks to the support from the Russian Federation and the fatigue of Bulgarians from traditional parties, it is becoming a factor to be reckoned with.
Vozrozhdenie is most interested in the failure of the coalition negotiations and the dissolution of the current parliament – they don't even hide it. Despite the fact that the party has now gained only 14.16% of the vote and the gap from the second month is very large, the continuation of the crisis gives them a chance to get even more support and get the right to form a government. This party opposes Bulgaria's membership in NATO and the EU, as well as the restoration of economic relations with Russia.
The pro-Russian forces that entered the Bulgarian parliament include the Bulgarian Socialist Party, which took fifth place with a result of 8.93%. The Socialists were in the Petkov government, opposed the provision of weapons to Ukraine, even together with the "Revival" tried to recognize military assistance to Ukraine contrary to the Bulgarian constitution. However, in practice, representatives of the Socialists in the government did not block the sale of weapons to the West for its further transfer to Kiev.
In fourth place is the party of the Turkish minority DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms, 13.75%), which has a long experience of cooperation with GERB.
Also, according to the results of the April 2 elections, another populist party "There is such a People" returned to parliament (4.11%). This political force, founded by comedian Slavi Trifonov, first entered parliament in 2021 against the background of fatigue from the government of Boyko Borisov – and even immediately took second place.
However, the demands of the party caused the failure of coalition negotiations in that and the next parliament. Subsequently, after the fall in popularity, the party "There is such a people" entered the coalition, from which it subsequently withdrew with a scandal, giving the start to the next early elections. As a result, the party did not enter parliament in last year's elections, but this year it returned again, albeit with a very modest result.
It should be noted that, unlike other populist parties, "There is such a People" does not question Bulgaria's membership in the EU, focusing on the demands of increasing presidential powers and direct democracy as a way out of the political crisis.
A coalition without high chances
The continuation of the political crisis may cost Bulgaria dearly. At the moment, the country does not even have a budget for the current year, and in addition, without a full-fledged government, it cannot receive EU money for a post-crisis economic recovery. However, the prospect of appointing a Government by Parliament still seems very far away.
As the winner of the election, Boyko Borisov received the right to be the first to try to form a coalition. He does not hide the fact that he would prefer to see "We are continuing changes" as his coalition partners. "The natural partners of the GERB party are the parties that are on the side of Ukraine and [Bulgaria's] accession to the Schengen and the eurozone. The most stable governance that could calm business and the people can be provided by a coalition between major parties. All conversations about politics are unthinkable without a regular government," Borisov sends such signals to potential partners.
However, the answer from Kirill Petkov sounded instantly – as before, such a coalition is impossible: "We clearly promised our voters a normal European life, which presupposes the existence of fair and free elections."
Soon there is information that GERB is conducting coalition negotiations with the partner of "We continue changes" – "Democratic Bulgaria". However, they have already denied the possibility of such a coalition. "We do not have a political mandate from our voters to form a coalition cabinet with GERB, because we promised them during the election campaign that this would not happen," says the leader of the bloc Radan Kynev.
In response, GERB issued an ultimatum: without the appointment of a full-fledged government, the party will not vote for the state budget. And accordingly, in the future the country will continue to live according to temporary programs, without the possibility of financing long-term projects.
The alliance with GERB is opposed by other parliamentary parties, with the exception of the DPS: both socialists and "There are such people". Vozrozhdenie, for its part, is an ideological opponent of the pro-European forces, and therefore a coalition with them still looks impossible. Note: for now, after all, Boyko Borisov noted the success of this party and indicated that he should negotiate with them as well.
The way out of the situation may be the formation of a technical government without the participation of politicians. Borisov voiced such a proposal during previous attempts to form a coalition, but it failed. However, it is possible that this time such an argument may convince the leader to "Continue the changes" – the current elections have shown that the party's rating has begun to decline. The alternative is to form a government with small parties.
GERB's position is clearly worse here – a coalition with them is unacceptable both for the Socialists and for the "There are Such People" party. And Vozrozhdenie, as already noted, does not want to participate in any coalition, preferring another early election. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that some of the political forces, given the crisis, will make significant concessions. This may be their last chance to stay in big politics.
But the party "We continue changes" has a real chance of forming a coalition with small parties. This is not easy, because we will have to bring together at least four political forces with different programs. However, the alternatives look much worse. The further the crisis in Bulgaria develops, the more opinions sound that the country's political system has reached a dead end and needs radical changes. Such radical changes give populists a chance, which in itself is dangerous for democracy.
All this is dangerous for Ukraine as well. Bulgaria remains an important producer of ammunition for Soviet weapons. A stable government provided such supplies even despite the presence of relatively pro-Russian socialists in the coalition. But the technical government becomes dependent on President Radev, who publicly plays along with the Russian Federation, denying the possibility of providing weapons to Ukraine even through third countries.
However, before the current elections, members of the GERB party cited data that even after the fall of the Petkov government and until now, Bulgaria still transferred ammunition to NATO countries, which then turned out to be in the armed forces of Ukraine. Thus, Radev's public position may be a political game.
However, even in such a situation, the increase in the political weight of Putin's friends from the "Renaissance" can create an extremely explosive mixture, very dangerous for the entire region. And for Ukraine first of all.
Authors: Yuri Panchenko, Mikhail Drapak
