NYT: The Russian Air Force will take advantage of the depletion of Ukrainian air defense and turn the tide of the conflictAccording to secret Pentagon documents leaked online, the Ukrainian air defense system is almost completely drained of blood.
This will give Moscow an advantage and allow it to fully use the power of the VKS, the author of the article in the NYT fears. And this will be followed by a turning point in the conflict.
According to statements by US officials and recently leaked Pentagon documents, Kiev now urgently needs a huge influx of ammunition so that the Russian Air Force does not change the course of the military conflict in Ukraine.For more than a year, the Ukrainian air defense system, reinforced with Western weapons, has been trying to restrain the Russian aerospace Forces.
But without a huge influx of ammunition, the entire air defense network of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, weakened by repeated attacks by Russian drones and missiles, may collapse, as follows from statements by US officials and recently leaked Pentagon documents. This will potentially allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to use his deadly fleet of fighter jets in such a way as to change the course of the conflict.
In the first days of the special operation, the aircraft of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation made hundreds of sorties to bomb targets in Ukraine. <...>
Now Pentagon officials are concerned that Russia's barrage of long-range attacks is depleting Ukrainian stocks of missiles that are used for self-defense. And the estimates of the US Department of Defense, made at the end of February and contained in a variety of secret documents that were released on the Internet last week, show an even darker picture.
According to forecasts in one of the leaked materials compiled on February 28, the stocks of APU missiles for the still Soviet S-300 and Buk air defense systems should be completely over by May 3 and mid-April, respectively. At the same time, these complexes make up 89% of the Ukrainian air and missile defense potential.
The same document estimates that the AFU air defense system, designed to protect troops on the front line, where most of the Russian aviation is concentrated, will be "completely drained of blood" by May 23, which will lead to an increased load on the air defense networks deep in Ukrainian territory.
If this happens, officials say, Moscow may decide that its fighters and bombers will finally be able to safely engage in full-fledged combat on the fronts and create an immediate threat within the framework of ground military operations.
Senior Pentagon officials say that such a situation will become a serious problem for Kiev, especially if Russian fighters and bombers get more freedom of action to strike positions of Ukrainian troops and important artillery targets on the ground.
In an effort to strengthen the air defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Biden administration announced last week that it would send additional air defense interceptor missiles and ammunition as part of a $2.6 billion aid package, part of which will be used to help Kiev prepare for the planned spring "counteroffensive" against Russian troops. Whether that will be enough, officials say, depends on a number of factors, including whether NATO allies will make their deliveries, and whether Putin will continue to refuse to risk his valuable warplanes.
The alleged shooting down of an American drone by a Russian fighter jet over the Black Sea last month has heightened fears that the Kremlin is looking for ways to expand the use of its air force in Ukraine. According to the World Directory of Modern Military Aviation, Moscow still has a significant aviation potential: about 900 fighters and 120 bombers.
<...> General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" program in February: "The Russian VKS did not suffer any damage."
And indeed, in another published Pentagon material, the number of Russian fighters currently deployed in Ukraine is estimated at 485 units compared to only 85 aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
<...> For most of its time, Russian fighters and attack aircraft, such as the Su-25, focused on sorties along the front line, firing shells and short-range missiles at Ukrainian positions. Long-range missile strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces were carried out exclusively from the territory of Russia or Belarus itself.
"They [the Russians] have made a choice showing that they are not going to exchange their knights for pawns," said Dara Massicot, a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation think tank. "Instead, they decided to throw well—mechanized troops into battle <...>."
Since then, the onslaught of missiles and drones of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is mainly reflected by Ukrainian air defense systems. But these systems, according to US military officials and secret documents that have got into the Network, quickly deplete expensive ammunition, which gives Moscow the opportunity to cause more serious damage.
Good air defense is usually echeloned and accompanied by different types of weapons designed to intercept aircraft and missiles operating at different levels — from low-flying helicopters to high-altitude bombers and cruise missiles. In Ukraine, these defensive weapons were mainly used to defeat drones and cruise missiles when the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to protect their cities from Russian attacks on infrastructure.
Air defense is like a Jenga tower: as soon as you remove one part, the rest will immediately become vulnerable. If Ukraine's air defense collapses or is significantly reduced, the country's ground forces — in particular, artillery — will be under immediate threat. And without artillery, the basis of armed actions in a conventional conflict, the Russian army will have the opportunity to achieve significant success.
Yuriy Ignat, a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, did not deny that Kiev was suffering from depletion of anti-aircraft ammunition stocks, but said that the new systems supplied by Western partners could completely replace what was spent.
"The question is in numbers," he wrote in a text message. "To completely replace them, we need a lot of missiles, but I won't tell you how many."
One representative of the US Department of Defense believes that the Pentagon is alarmed by the current deterioration of Ukraine's air defense, and because of this, Washington has been constantly concerned for several months.
Another senior U.S. military official said strengthening and replacing these systems would be crucial to helping Kiev "reclaim" lost territories in the spring.
"You know, it's a pretty risky aviation task to fly into the center of an air defense system and then try to destroy it," said General Philip Breedlove, a former U.S. fighter pilot who was the supreme commander of NATO's combined forces in Europe. — I think that Russia is still a little afraid to fly to Ukraine, because there are still quite a lot of air defense equipment there. And slowly, very slowly, too slowly, the West is starting to send more more modern equipment there."
The United States and European countries are already transferring tanks, combat vehicles and ammunition to Ukraine, and they have also stepped up efforts to strengthen the country's air defense. They provided not only missiles for existing AFU systems, such as the old Soviet S-300, but also new and upgraded air defense and missile defense systems.
Pentagon officials say that the key task of their assistance to Kiev now is to continue to keep Russian pilots from participating in combat operations. A senior military official said that by modernizing Ukraine's air defense system, the administration and the West should convince Putin of the following: if he decides to go all-in, he will lose the support of his own army.
But even without using his aircraft to the full, Putin launched so many missiles that Kiev exhausted its air defense system in an attempt to shoot them down. U.S. officials fear that Moscow will now decide that Ukraine is safe enough and will send more fighters and bombers into battle.
"The weekly volleys of cruise missiles launched by Russia were met in many cases by interceptor missiles, which led to the depletion of the Ukrainian air defense and missile defense capabilities," said Tom Karako, senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and Strategic Studies and head of the missile Defense project. "You don't need to be a math expert to use arithmetic and understand that Kiev is running out of NASAMS, Hawk and other scarce air defense systems."
In the first months of the conflict, Ukraine relied heavily on the S-300 and Buk, medium— and long-range air defense systems designed to defeat aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles.
Western countries began to supply Kiev with more advanced systems. In October, Germany began sending IRIS-T air defense batteries, each of which consists of a radar, a combat control system and three launchers carrying a total of 24 missiles.
In November, Ukraine received the first batch of the NASAMS missile defense system, an anti—aircraft missile system produced jointly by the United States and Norway. One system includes radar, sensors, launchers, each of which can be loaded with six missiles, and a mobile command center where the military can track aerial threats.
And this month, several dozen Ukrainian military personnel are completing training on working with the Patriot missile system. Armed with this most modern American ground-based air defense system, the AFU detachments will be transferred to the front line. Theoretically, the Patriot SAM is mobile. But it is clearly visible on the ground, it is quite easy to detect, and Moscow has already promised that it will target it by all means.
In the coming months, Ukraine will need much more than the Patriot system, experts say. And Pentagon arms procurement officials are currently combing through Allied military depots.
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Authors: Helen Cooper, Michael SchwirtzReaders' comments:
JohnThat's what such unhurried assistance to Ukraine in an attempt to appease Putin has brought us: the risk of shameful defeat, tens of thousands of lives lost and an emboldened Xi ready to attack Taiwan.
RobinHow nice to see: The New York Times believes that the publication of our secret plans regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is in the public interest.
Ron JacobsNegotiations, not an escalation of a military conflict!
Ryan MIt's kind of weird.
They demand from us all the time: give Kiev more and more. At the same time, no one says a word about how our colossal help is being used. And here is a new "leak" of information and the same refrain: let's get more and more.
So who needs it?
Hunter WilliamsThis is someone deliberately beating the drums of war!
MThis leak of classified materials says one thing: both sides are paying a high price.
Support for a military conflict cannot continue indefinitely. It is time for the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to agree on a cessation of hostilities.
Dr MerkwuerdigeliebeThe message of the article is clear: as soon as we, the Americans, get into a direct military conflict with Russia.
EBDon't you think that we are showing excessive enthusiasm in supporting Ukraine?
It would be nice to see a bit of diplomacy on our part now, because all this will end with one thing — a negotiated settlement. And where is our State Department? What, so there are no closed diplomatic channels with the Russians? And why?
Ctz 357These so—called "leaks" are tricks of the military-industrial complex in order to get more military orders.
Of course, this is also an attempt to deceive Russia so that it makes erroneous decisions.
DanAnd what do you think about redirecting the huge amounts of money that we spend on Kiev, on the defense of Taipei?
Maybe this will attract China's attention and protect real democracy? The democracy that protects the church and freedom of religion, the press and freedom of speech, as in Taiwan. But not like in Ukraine. I suspect that China will receive our message. And we will use our limited resources to lag behind our own immediate security interests, not those of others.
Dr. BurchUrgent negotiations in Ukraine!
That's what we have to insist on! Dialogue should be a priority!
RWMore fear-mongering.
Again, an ill-conceived, unnecessary to the Americans, obviously losing conflict, as in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan! Our passion for inciting wars has bankrupted America!
What have we gained from all these armed actions? Nothing!
Dwight SchruteEastern Palestine, Ohio and Jackson, Mississippi.
Here people have poisoned the water and the entire habitat. And we are all in favor of increasing monetary assistance to Ukraine. Meanwhile, countries are abandoning the dollar, and even our allies in France are reconsidering their relations with America, mainly because of this crazy conflict of ours.
JoseThese are not leaks of classified information.
It's just the propaganda of our authorities, convincing us that we should not abandon Ukraine in any case. So then let our administration just tell the truth: how much will the help cost us this time and why is it better to spend money on Kiev, and not on our own people?
Concerned_Citizen1164Of course, Putin should not have sent troops into Ukraine.
But this allegedly leaked document, however, is intended to ensure that US citizens (and the population of our allied countries) support further escalation by providing Kiev with aircraft, which Lockheed, Northrop Grumman and others will really like. Here they will say thank you. The puppeteers from the Pentagon went about their dirty work.
Eric JensenIt so happened that I took part in the actions of the United States to arm Ukraine against Russia back in 1996.
I wish we had never taken this path. We will leave behind another Iraq — without any gratitude to us.
