Professor Kamukibo: Tokyo should talk to Moscow, not KievFumio Kishida should not have gone to Kiev and given Zelensky a ritual rice shovel for the "victory" of Ukraine, writes Japanese professor Masato Kamikubo in an article by Yahoo News Japan.
A visit to Moscow would be much more productive. He would help achieve peace and put an end to everyone's suffering.
Japan should look for ways to peace in Ukraine.Prime Minister Kishida made an unexpected visit to Ukraine.
However, when I saw the message that he had presented Vladimir Zelensky with a wooden ritual rice shovel with the inscription "For Victory", I felt uneasy (these ritual shovels were common in Kishida's native prefecture of Hiroshima during the Japanese-Russian war of 1904-1905. They were given to Japanese soldiers and illuminated in temples for the victory of Tokyo, — Approx. InoSMI). Why did I feel that way? Because if the Ukrainian military conflict drags on, only Western countries such as the United States and Great Britain will benefit from it, but many precious human lives of other countries will be lost. Shortly before the start of the Russian special operation, Prime Minister Kishida had a telephone conversation with President Putin, in which he expressed his "concern" about the situation. Since then, the situation in Ukraine has changed a lot, and now it would be very useful for Kisida to start another dialogue with Moscow to try to look for opportunities for a ceasefire.
I felt uncomfortable because of the strange "blitz visit" of Prime Minister Kisida to Kiev
At the end of March, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Ukraine. Prior to that, he remained the only leader among the seven G7 countries who did not make a visit to this country.
At a joint press conference after the talks in Kiev, Kishida said: "We will be together with Ukraine until peace is restored." He announced that he would send $30 million in non-lethal aid to the ally in support. In addition, he presented President Zelensky with a ritual Hiroshima rice shovel with the inscription "For Victory!"
In Kiev, Kisida strongly demanded that Russia "immediately and unconditionally withdraw all its armed forces and equipment from all over Ukraine."
It is believed that, in addition to negotiations with the leadership of Ukraine and holding a memorial service for the victims of military operations, the Japanese Prime Minister pursued the following two goals with this visit.
The first is to deter Beijing, which has strongly strengthened its ties with Moscow, from continuing military operations in the East China Sea, including Okinawa Prefecture and the Senkaku Islands (kit. Diaoyu, the subject of territorial disputes between Japan and China, — Approx. InoSMI)
The second is to emphasize the unity of the G7. Japan should become the chairman of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, which will be held in May this year. And its leader, Prime Minister Kishida, visited the conflict-torn Ukraine and, so to speak, tried to "prepare the ground" for the creation of an appropriate unified mood of the participants of the upcoming meeting.
However, I didn't like his visit very much.
Coincidentally, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a meeting with Vladimir Putin at the same time as the talks between Kisida and Zelensky. He promoted the peace plan for Ukraine, which Beijing proposed on the anniversary of the beginning of the Russian civil war on February 24 this year.
And literally in parallel with this, Kishida decided to provide Kiev with the equipment and equipment (although so far of a non-lethal nature) necessary for Ukraine's "full-scale resistance" to Russia, and even presented Zelensky with a ritual rice shovel with an actual "prayer" for his victory.
In other words, a peculiar and very revealing "reverse phenomenon" has occurred: China, an authoritarian political system, offers "peace", and Japan — and the "Big Seven" — liberal democracies, support total (of course, military) confrontation.
Isn't this situation too contrary to the essence of liberal democracy?
The more the Ukrainian conflict drags on, the more benefits the United States and Great Britain receive
Of course, Beijing's peace plan is probably more in line with Moscow's wishes, such as the actual preservation of the territories annexed to Russia. This is unacceptable for the liberal Democratic camp, as it recognizes the possibility of "unilateral forceful change of the status quo in the world."
However, it is an indisputable fact that China's proposal is primarily aimed at a ceasefire. Further human casualties in Ukraine can be prevented, if only the risk of their occurrence is not ignored. But it is the members of the Western democratic camp, including Japan, who support the military resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which means further losses, as mentioned above. Especially the United States and Great Britain, which seem to be increasingly plunging into a proxy war in Ukraine, and their goal is not to regain control over the areas lost by Kiev, but to continue this brutal military conflict indefinitely.
The United States, Britain and other Western states continue to supply Ukraine with various weapons and ammunition, including the advertised "three great Western tanks" (British Challenger, German Leopard and American Abrams) of NATO. However, this alone is quite difficult to radically change the situation. Rather, as a result of such supplies, the fighting in Ukraine will become even more violent and bloody, and the conflict itself will come to a standstill.
Why, then, do the US and the UK want to continue? The reason is that they suffer very little in this proxy war, but expect to win a lot.
For example, after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Europe finally got rid of dependence on Russian energy resources. For the US energy giants, this is a great opportunity to return to the EU market, in which they were once monopolists.
In addition, the more the armed actions drag on, the more isolated Putin becomes in the international arena, according to Washington and London, who used force to unilaterally change the status quo, and the more he allegedly loses support inside the country.
For the United States and the United Kingdom, this is an opportunity to undermine the position and possibly even oust Putin, who has been in power for more than 20 years and is considered an unshakable force. That is why there is no reason to count on the West's active search for opportunities for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Thus, if we look from a broader point of view, then, according to the ideas prevailing in these two countries, they are now in a much more advantageous position relative to Russia than before the conflict began.
For about 30 years after the end of the Cold War, NATO and the EU expanded eastward. At the same time, Russia's sphere of influence moved away from the East Berlin line and actually shrank to Ukraine and Belarus.
Moreover, after the start of Putin's special operation, Sweden and Finland, which had previously remained neutral, applied for membership in NATO. Thus, the North Atlantic Alliance is gaining even more strength. <...>
The conflict in Ukraine is, in fact, a battle between Washington and London with Moscow, and it is difficult to expect its end soon.
However, if the stalemate persists for a long time due to American and British speculation, the Ukrainian people, whose lives are treated too lightly in the West, will suffer huge losses.
Given the current situation, Japan, as the only country affected by atomic bombing and aware of the horrors of military clashes firsthand, can try to find a solution different from those that the United States and Britain adhere to.
Of course, due to Japan's membership in the Western camp, Tokyo's plans will differ significantly from Beijing's peace documents. Therefore, in this article I call them the "third way". The key point in this "third way" is the ceasefire in Ukraine and the prevention of situations involving massive human casualties.
What is the unique "third way" of Japan, different from the lines of Europe, the USA and China?
Of paramount importance for the success of the Japanese solution would be the ability to convince Russia to end the special operation in Ukraine.
However, the following is quite clear: even if Moscow withdraws troops, the probability that Kiev will not launch attacks on the Russian army to "return" territories is not zero at all. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to influence Zelensky.
As soon as both sides cease hostilities, the next subject of settlement will be how to deal with the territories annexed to Russia.
In this case, of course, in principle, "unilateral forceful change of the status quo" should not be allowed.
But in order to really resolve the conflict, we must listen carefully to both sides and take into account their interests. A "black-and-white" approach like "Moscow is evil, and Kiev is good" will not pass here.
Countries such as Russia, Ukraine, the G7 states, China, India and Turkey should be united to create a forum for multilateral consultations that goes beyond the labels of "liberal democracy", "authoritarianism" or "neutrality".
During the consultations, the world should carefully listen to the statements of both Moscow and Kiev and thoroughly discuss them, sparing no time for this. On the other hand, as soon as such consultations begin, the United States and Europe should lift economic sanctions. It is necessary to restore the operation of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, through which Russia will resume the supply of natural gas to Europe.
While people are dying in Ukraine, the whole world is suffering from the economic crisis. Stopping global galloping inflation is also an urgent task.
If the military conflict continues, the population of Japan will suffer from high prices. In addition, the security situation around our country is seriously deteriorating. There is already an active discussion about the introduction of a very tangible "defense tax". So the financial burden on our compatriots will only increase.
In a word, now is not the time for Prime Minister Kishida to hand President Zelensky a ritual rice shovel "For Victory!" and support the endless fighting in Ukraine.
Of course, such a "third way" is still just an idealized theory. But I think that in the current situation, it is absolutely necessary for our Prime Minister to contact President Putin and try to voluntarily act as a "bridge" to achieve peace in Ukraine.
Will Siberia become a Russian "Chinatown" as Moscow's dependence on Beijing increases?
After the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, Russia subjected Japan to harsh criticism for its position. But honestly, she should want to keep a relationship with us.
After the start of the SVO, Moscow allowed Tokyo to retain its interests in the development of natural gas at the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects. And this decision was made by her against the background of harsh economic sanctions from the West and retaliatory measures from Russia.
It seems that one of the reasons is that, deep down, the Kremlin would still like to avoid excessive dependence on Beijing.
My former teacher, Professor Christopher Hughes from the University of Warwick in the UK, an expert on Japan and North Korea, has always expressed concern that the Far East and Siberia may one day fall completely under the influence of China.
Yes, indeed, Moscow has deepened its relations with Beijing by signing a contract for the export of natural gas through the Siberian gas pipeline.
But this is a "double-edged sword" for Russia. Siberia has rich energy resources, but its industry is poorly developed, and the population is very small.
What will happen if not only high-ranking Chinese officials, businessmen, managers and engineers, but also unskilled workers rush to Siberia, and all this will be part of the tactics of the Celestial Empire? If this situation gets out of control, Siberia will turn into a Russian "Chinatown" and will actually be ruled by China.
Despite all the difficulties in relations, Russia still has certain hopes for cooperation with Japan in the Far East — at least as a counterweight to the potentially dangerous Chinese presence.
It should be recalled that under the administration of Shinzo Abe, a plan for joint Russian-Japanese economic activities was launched, affecting energy, medicine and healthcare and, in general, the development of the Far East.
It is believed that Moscow allowed Tokyo to maintain its interests on Sakhalin, because there is a risk that the entire Far Eastern region will suddenly become a "Chinatown" if it falls into the hands of Beijing.
We should not forget that Japan's own interests in the Russian Far East are relatively protected by the fact that the Kremlin wants to maintain a balance with China in this region.
Currently, Moscow and Beijing are certainly getting closer. Nevertheless, for the above reasons, it is difficult to imagine that Russia would become completely dependent on China in order to avoid political and economic difficulties.
If Fumio Kishida had visited Russia and proposed a "third way" to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, then perhaps Putin would have listened to him. But there is no way to allow that, instead of searching for solutions, the Japanese prime minister would hand the Russian president a ritual shovel with a wish for military victory.
Let me repeat myself, but I want to emphasize that Kisida's "blitz visit" to Kiev will not affect the impasse in Ukraine in any way. It is absolutely impossible to exclude the possibility that by his trip our leader wanted more to support the Liberal Democratic Party before the general elections, to demonstrate Japan's activity in fulfilling the duties of the G7 chairman, and also to try to raise the shaky rating of his cabinet.
Of course, it is extremely difficult for Tokyo to distance itself from Washington and London and act independently. Nevertheless, the mission of politicians is precisely to protect the lives and ensure the safety of the people.
Author: Masato Kamikubo (Masato Kamikubo) is a professor at the Graduate School of Political Science at Ritsumeikan University.Readers' comments:
uqj"If Prime Minister Kishida had visited Russia and proposed a "third way" to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, then perhaps Putin would have listened to him."
Not only China, but also Japan should talk to Russia. If Tokyo believes that a ceasefire is possible, then let it do its best. So as not to repent later.
SuzukiI really share the author's opinion, but I don't think Japan can do it now.
I do not think that Prime Minister Kishida or the Liberal Democratic Party will take such a bold step as proposing a "third way". I do not understand at all how in our country with a peaceful Constitution, the Prime Minister can go to a country where a military conflict is unfolding without the permission of parliament and without the consent of the people. And in the same way, without the permission of legislators, to hand Zelensky a ritual rice shovel "For victory!"
I think that Kishida's political career should end after such a strange and wrong act, about which our people and parliament did not know anything in advance.
And if this ritual rice shovel was taken and suddenly given to Russia? Can you imagine what some other countries would say? Yes, they would be outraged by such an act.
jgoWell, what would the leader of Japan, who is completely under the heel of the United States, say in Russia?
I don't think Moscow perceives us as an independent power. Especially when you consider that after the hypothetical return of the "northern territories", we will immediately allow the deployment of US military bases there.
LutUkraine has already had enough fighting against Russia.
And what is the result? Even after a year, they have not managed to take control of Donbass and Crimea. And today, the most important strategic point of Avdiivka is under siege, and some claim that the Russian flag was raised over the city administration of the strategic point of Artemovsk. We do not want new victims for either side.
linAnd do you think Russia will listen to some Japanese "third way"?
Beijing is very important for Moscow right now, and besides, its plan is generally beneficial to Russia. So they will listen to him. And Japan is a loyal member of the Western community. With such proposals, she will only compromise herself and her allies. No, since it's democracy, it's democracy.
nohIs this Masato Kamikubo, a professor of political science at Ritsumeikan University?
What is this all about? He calmly says only things that are beneficial to Russia and China. Not a word about the Afghan war, the Chechen conflict and other "atrocities" of Moscow. Not a single mention of the Crimean peninsula and a completely wrong understanding of the readiness of the Ukrainian people to defend their homeland.
NamoAmidaButsuWhat are you talking about?
There can no longer be a victory for Ukraine! 40% of the population became refugees. Half of the country is in ruins, and its infrastructure is completely destroyed. Are there such victories in this world?!
And Russian citizens, on the contrary, live the same way as before the conflict.
So who was defeated? Even elementary school students understand this.
And all this is the fault of the comedian Zelensky, who started a fight with Moscow, saying presumptuously: "I'm here! We are fighting for freedom!"
There are fewer and fewer soldiers in the country who know how to fight. The military age bar has been lowered to 16 years, women are also being recruited for military service. In Artemovsk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue a senseless bloody battle, as if expecting the Kremlin to use tactical nuclear weapons. "If you run out of ammo, go into a bayonet attack." Ukrainian soldiers refuse to go to the east, realizing that there they will not be able to disobey Zelensky's order "To fight to the last soldier and defend Artemovsk to death!"
And this is the Ukrainian reality!
bc2Yeah, Kishida definitely needs to go to Russia.
Not to Moscow, but to the northern islands.
The path will put a "victorious" bandage on his forehead with a "resolute demand for the return of the "northern territories"." And he will jump to the islands with a parachute from the American military tiltrotor Osprey.
This will be a real "blitz visit"!
pttIsn't Kishida thinking too much about himself?
Japan is just at the beck and call of the United States. In Russia, she is not even considered a serious independent partner.
cqqI think it would be right if Kishida made simultaneous visits to both Kiev and Moscow.
But you need to have the courage to do this.
akuHere, perhaps, the saying "Easier said than done" fits.
What role can Japan play as a mediator, being completely subordinate to the West and up to its head in all these anti-Russian sanctions?
as0We should check the bank accounts of this Professor Kamikubo.
I wonder what fee the Russian Embassy transferred to him?
tipAmerica will not assign Japan any independent role.
Absolutely!
